Anchor Of Gold - Commodores Football 2012 - Game 7: Vanderbilt vs. AuburnThe Unofficial Vanderbilt Commodores Blog * Now With Fewer Law Degrees!https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/46811/anchor-fave.png2012-10-22T14:47:19-04:00http://www.anchorofgold.com/rss/stream/32902032012-10-22T14:47:19-04:002012-10-22T14:47:19-04:00Vandy 17, Auburn 13: Too many trick plays?
<figure>
<img alt="Chris Boyd isn't hurtling this Auburn defender. He's preparing a Hulk Hogan Atomic Leg Drop after things got a bit chippy between them." src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/rE_IcjzF7QW46ud-MheiIaPn-wI=/0x137:4000x2804/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/1818447/20121020_gav_sq9_134.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Chris Boyd isn't hurtling this Auburn defender. He's preparing a Hulk Hogan Atomic Leg Drop after things got a bit chippy between them. | Don McPeak-US PRESSWIRE</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Vanderbilt escaped with a win on Saturday, but was almost done in by their own trickeration. When can the Commodores believe that they are the better team on the field?</p> <p style="text-align: justify;">When you're Vanderbilt's all-time leading rusher, you're a pretty recognizable guy. So recognizable, in fact, that other teams are going to notice when you're lined up where the punter normally would be.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">That didn't stop James Franklin from throwing <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/79061/zac-stacy">Zac Stacy</a> 20 yards behind the line of scrimmage in a fourth-and-nine fake-punt that was so obviously awkward that it could have doubled as an Andy Kaufmann skit. Stacy, the player that Auburn had been game-planning for since their week began, stared down the Tiger special teams unit as they shuffled into prevent mode. Once Stacy was made, the only way that the fake could have been a surprise would have been if Stacy actually punted the ball.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">The ball went to <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/79064/wesley-tate">Wesley Tate</a> at the upback position, who swept to the right, met an Auburn defender, and fired off a bad pitch that was intended for Stacy but ended up on the ground. If the pitch had been on-target, Stacy would have had to cover 15 yards against a Tiger D that was swarming to the ball. While he had an open lane, the Commodore tailback still had about a 50/50 shot to convert this 4th-and-nine opportunity even if everything had gone right.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Instead, the Tigers got the ball at Vandy's 37-yard line, and an Auburn team that struggled on offense all day was given the short field they needed to get on the board. </p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">It was another odd play in a season that has been full of them. Vanderbilt's use of the trick play has been apparent throughout this fall. Their mastery of these unusual calls has not. The Commodores have struggled with these gadget plays in 2012, and instead of lifting the team up like they had in upset bids of the past, they're helping teams like Auburn compete in games where Vanderbilt clearly looks like the better team.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">That second part is the most frustrating. Vanderbilt has one of their most talented squads in school history, yet the 'Dores are playing like they need gimmicks to survive in games that they can win with traditional football. James Franklin went unorthodox to extend his first-quarter touchdown drive by converting a pair of fourth downs that covered one and two yards. Then, he handed a team that struggled to sustain drives great field position by going for it on fourth-and-nine and fourth-and-one and failing. The 'Dores squandered one last fourth down play on a Zac Stacy pass out of the wildcat formation in lieu of a 48-yard field goal attempt that would have pushed the Vandy lead to seven points late in the fourth quarter.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">If nothing else, Franklin was consistent with his risk taking this weekend. Unfortunately, he won't be able to escape with a win if something similar happens against the SEC's better teams. Vanderbilt handed the Tigers plenty of opportunities on Saturday afternoon, but pulled out the victory when Auburn couldn't capitalize. The Vandy defense gave this coaching staff plenty of reasons to believe in them against a struggling opponent, but their leadership still chose gadget plays over field position when it came to fourth downs. That's not a sign of a confident team.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Maybe that's a product of playing a loaded front-half of the schedule and slipping to 2-4 early. Maybe it's just the kind of unpredictable play-calling that James Franklin wants the Commodores to be known for. Either way, it's becoming a trend in Nashville, and it is limiting an improving team that doesn't need trick plays to survive in 2012.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">That's a pessimistic rant on a series of fourth-down conversions that ultimately led to seven points and a 40 percent success rate, but it's still a nagging flaw of a team that can't afford to add mistakes. There were plenty of things for Vandy fans to be happy about on Saturday, including:</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><b><i>The Good:</i></b></p>
<ul>
<li>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<b>Zac Stacy, leader amongst men.</b> All hail Tsar Stacy, undisputed leader of Commodore tailbacks. Stacy continued his assault on Vanderbilt's football history with a 27-carry, 168 yard performance that secured his place atop Vandy's all-time rushing records. Stacy now holds the school records for most career rushing yards, most rushing yards in a single season, and most touchdowns in a single season (non-passing). If he keeps up this pace, he'll also finish in the Vanderbilt all-time top 10 in statistics like total offense, career scoring, single game rushing yards, longest run from scrimmage, rushing yards by a senior, and most 100-yard games as a rusher.</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">Stacy bullied the Auburn defense all afternoon, shrugging off tackles and moving the chains for a Vandy offense that was paced by its running game. As the Commodore offensive line gets stronger, so does the All-SEC senior. Can he put together another strong second half and lead his team to a bowl game? He should be able to put together monster performances against teams like UMass and Kentucky along the way.</div>
</li>
<li style="text-align: justify;">
<b><a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/116241/jordan-rodgers">Jordan Rodgers</a>: adequate and upright</b>. Rodgers put together a "game-manager" performance on Saturday, but that was all that the Commodores needed to beat Auburn. The redshirt senior made good decisions all day, avoiding the Tigers' rush (zero sacks in a Rodgers start for the first time this season) and finding his big targets <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/116266/chris-boyd">Chris Boyd</a> and <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/116267/jordan-matthews">Jordan Matthews</a> when he needed to. <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/115134/james-franklin">James Franklin's</a> gameplan de-emphasized the passing game this weekend, but Rodgers showed that he is capable of sustaining drives when he gets a little time in the pocket. His performance will quell the calls for Austyn Carta-Samuels for another week.</li>
<li style="text-align: justify;">
<b>That defense, though</b>. The Commodore defense exploited Auburn's disjointed offense on Saturday, allowing just one drive of over 30 yards on the afternoon. <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/116252/chase-garnham">Chase Garnham</a> had a career day at linebacker, notching three sacks including one that pushed <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/78527/clint-moseley">Clint Moseley</a> out of Vandy territory and squashed a potential scoring drive. The 'Dores held Auburn to just 212 yards on the day and were the biggest factor in Vanderbilt's second SEC win of the season. </li>
<li style="text-align: justify;">
<b>Wesley Tate, special teams ace</b>. Tate showed off his versatility against Auburn, rushing for a seven-yard touchdown out of the wildcat QB spot while also making a big special teams tackle on the tail end of a <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/38455/richard-kent">Richard Kent</a> punt. Tate has done everything this team has asked of him throughout his Vanderbilt career, and he's become an enormous asset for the Commodores.</li>
</ul>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><b><i>The Bad:</i></b></p>
<ul>
<li>
<b>Gimmicks and gadgets. </b>See above. This Commodore team is getting better every week, and they could have eliminated some of Saturday's drama by exercising caution against a team that they were clearly better than. James Franklin needs to trust his defense and traditional playcalling more, because they're both developing into strengths for this team.</li>
<li>
<b>Student turnout</b>. This was my first Vandy home game in the James Franklin era, and while the rest of the stadium was packed with passionate fans, the student section held to its tradition of only filling about 60 percent of its benches. It's understandable that the early kickoff and Auburn's struggles may have tempered expectations, but leaving full rows of empty seats during a sellout is inexcusable. Plenty of other fans are able to get sufficiently drunk for a 11:21 kickoff. It's just a matter of effort.</li>
</ul>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><b><i>The PiBB Ice Player of the Week: Zac Stacy</i></b></p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/1601309/StacyPOTWAuburn.jpg" target="_blank"><img alt="Stacypotwauburn_medium" class="photo" src="http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/1601309/StacyPOTWAuburn_medium.jpg"></a> <br id="1350930939346"></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">As if it would have been anyone else. Frank Mordica's all-time rushing record stood for over 30 years before Stacy broke it on Saturday. He was able to become Vandy's most-decorated tailback in school history despite playing in a platoon for his first two seasons in Nashville. Long live the Tsar.</p>
https://www.anchorofgold.com/2012/10/22/3538696/the-commodore-review-how-vanderbilt-really-looked-against-auburnChristian D'Andrea2012-10-20T19:05:42-04:002012-10-20T19:05:42-04:00Vandy 17, Auburn 13
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<img alt="Congratulations, Zac!" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/IE4lw2DHLHzScutuvwo2AY1eJ7E=/220x0:3722x2335/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/1726229/20121020_gav_sq9_204.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Congratulations, Zac! | Don McPeak-US PRESSWIRE</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Vanderbilt beats Auburn, takes all-time series lead. Zac Stacy breaks the Commodore career rushing yardage record.</p> <p style="text-align: justify;">It wasn't pretty. The Commodores sought out plenty of opportunities to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Historically, this was the kind of game Vanderbilt gifts to its SEC brethren. Turnovers, questionable play calling and decision making were more than enough to offset several quality drives that, on their own, told the tale of a different game. Fortunately, this was not a vintage Auburn team and the Commodores defense held strong as Auburn's last ditch offensive possession ended in desperation.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">How nice it must be for a pretty woeful Tigers team to have the kind of traveling support they received today in Nashville. The Orange and Blue were out and about and they were there early. And boy were they talkative. I had the good fortune of meeting one Auburn fan who claimed to have been the current university president's roommate in college. If he is to be believed, the president allegedly told him after last week's loss that Tigers Head Coach Gene Chizik wasn't going to be coaching today's game. That obviously didn't come to pass, though one can imagine if that conversation did take place that we'll probably see some movement this week.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">As for the game, there isn't a lot to talk about other than:</p>
<p> </p>
<ol>
<li style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 9px;">The team did what it took to win the game despite making it very difficult on themselves. We've yet to see a truly flawless performance from the team. Hopefully they're saving those for the end of the season in other winnable games.</span></li>
<li style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 9px;">Zac Freaking Stacy. Congratulations to him and to the team. What a phenomenal young man, on and off the field.</span></li>
<li style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 9px;">Vanderbilt once again own the all-time series lead against an SEC opponent. Unfortunately for the Auburn faithful, ye olde "off wiff 'is 'ead" punishment is no longer fashionable.</span></li>
</ol>
<p style="text-align: justify;">The team really, really needed to get this win and they came through. Sighs of relief, libations for everyone. On to UMass and what should be the return to a .500 record. Roll tide!</p>
https://www.anchorofgold.com/2012/10/20/3531822/dores-outlast-tigers-17-13KingJamesIV2012-10-20T11:00:40-04:002012-10-20T11:00:40-04:00Game 6: Dores vs Tigers GameThread
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<img alt="Gameday in Nashville" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/G9i_TUp58tR-RsbqEu4Jr7HeNAc=/3x0:3996x2662/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/1689521/20120915_gav_sq9_143.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Gameday in Nashville | Don McPeak-US PRESSWIRE</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Dores v. Tigers</p> <p style="text-align: center;"> </p>
<div align="center">
<table width="80%"><tbody><tr>
<td width="25%" style="vertical-align: middle;">
<p style="text-align: center;" align="center"><img src="http://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/ncaa/lrg/trans/238.gif"></p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><b>2-4 (1-3)<br>NR (AP)<br>NR (USA Today)<br>56 (Football Outsiders)</b></p>
</td>
<td width="50%" style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">
<p><b>October 20, 2012<br>11:20 CT<br>Video:</b> SEC Network<br><b>Radio: </b>1510 AM WLAC (<a target="_blank" href="http://vucommodores.cstv.com/multimedia/vand-multimedia.html">Affiliates</a>)</p>
</td>
<td width="25%" style="vertical-align: middle;">
<p style="text-align: center;"><img src="http://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/ncaa/lrg/trans/2.gif"><br><b>1-5 (0-4)</b><br><b>NR (AP)</b><br><b>NR (USA Today)<br>72 (Football Outsiders)</b></p>
</td>
</tr></tbody></table>
</div>
<p> </p>
<p align="justify">Post your pregame, in-game, and post-game comments and thoughts below.</p>
https://www.anchorofgold.com/2012/10/20/3529152/game-7-vanderbilt-commodores-vs-auburn-tigers-open-gamethreadKingJamesIV2012-10-19T13:00:50-04:002012-10-19T13:00:50-04:00Saturday Predictions: Auburn at Vanderbilt
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<img alt="Jordan Rodgers is quietly improving as the season wears on. Can he break out against the Tigers?" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/yI8oKjBziPNWvAwEwEETQmqITAU=/0x41:4000x2708/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/1631093/154077864.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Jordan Rodgers is quietly improving as the season wears on. Can he break out against the Tigers? | Frederick Breedon</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Vanderbilt will host a slumping Auburn team this Saturday in a game that could make or break the Commodores' bowl chances. How will everything play out?</p> <p style="text-align: justify;">Vanderbilt has had a disappointing season so far. If Commodore fans want to complain, however, I'd suggest avoiding any Auburn alumni.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">That's because the Tigers have been the SEC's most disappointing team of 2012. Auburn started their season as a fringe member of many top 25 ballots but have fallen to a 1-5 record since then. That record includes a deflating 41-20 defeat to Ole Miss that saw the Rebels outscore Auburn 24-7 in the second half.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">That result has made Vandy a seven point favorite despite being only 2-4 at the season's halfway mark. While the Commodores have been inconsistent on offense this season, Auburn has been even worse. The Tigers rank 117th in FBS play with just 16.2 points per game. Vandy is only eight spots higher in the rankings, but they also score 4.3 more points per contest than their Saturday opponents.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">That suggests that we'll see a low-scoring affair at Dudley Field, but the Commodores have shown signs of snapping out of their funk in recent weeks. After stalling out in the second halves of games against South Carolina, Northwestern, and Georgia, the team has shown signs of life by sustaining drives and scoring points late in contests against Missouri and Florida.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Can Vanderbilt continue their development as the head into the easier half of their schedule? Or will Auburn finally find their footing in Nashville? Let's turn to our experts* and see what Anchor of Gold had to say about this week's matchup.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><b>Christian D'Andrea</b>: First things first; I'll be down in Nashville for my first Commodore home game in a couple years, and I am thrilled to see a rematch of 2008's College Gameday showdown while simultaneously horrified at the prospect of an 11:21am kickoff and a 9 am tailgate. That being said, if any AoG'ers are floating around the Vandyville lots, come say hi, share a beer, and show off your best impression of <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/116241/jordan-rodgers">Jordan Rodgers</a> running nine yards backwards into a sack with me. I'll be the guy with the patchy beard (it's the only way to ready myself for Movember without looking especially...molester-y) and a <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/11055/d-j-moore">D.J. Moore</a> jersey that was clearly made for a large child to wear.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Now that I've made myself seem especially creepy, onto the picks.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Vanderbilt got a great year to host the Tigers. Auburn's offense has been trying to fit square pegs into round holes all season, and it's manifested into one of the most disappointing seasons to ever converge on Jordan-Hare Stadium. <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/136333/kiehl-frazier">Kiehl Frazier</a> and <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/78527/clint-moseley">Clint Moseley</a>, the Tigers' two quarterbacks, have combined for just three touchdown passes while lobbing eight interceptions in six games so far.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Gene Chizik hasn't announced his starter for Saturday, but it's a safe bet that either will struggle against a Commodore secondary that has been strong in 2012. Only two quarterbacks have passed for over 100 yards against Vanderbilt this season - <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/78599/aaron-murray">Aaron Murray</a> and <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/134321/corbin-berkstresser">Corbin Berkstresser</a>. As a result, the Tigers will have to turn to their running game if they want to beat Vanderbilt.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">They've got the horses for it - <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/78531/onterio-mccalebb">Onterio McCalebb</a> and <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/131875/tre-mason">Tre Mason</a> are both solid tailbacks - but Vandy will be waiting for their rushing attack. The 'Dores have been able to stop their opponents on the ground when properly prepared. They held <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/78461/mike-gillislee">Mike Gillislee</a> and <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/76613/kendial-lawrence">Kendial Lawrence</a> to subpar performances in their past two weeks. If they can limit McCalebb and Mason on Saturday, they'll have the chance to pick up their second SEC win of the season.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><b><i>The Pick: Vanderbilt 24, Auburn 20</i></b></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><b>SEC Upset Pick of the Week: </b><i>South Carolina (+3) over FLORIDA</i>. I don't feel great about this one. <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/116171/marcus-lattimore">Marcus Lattimore</a> is either out or limited for this game, and the Gators will have the advantage of a rabid crowd in the Swamp. However, have you seen the rest of the SEC's schedule this week? The only other close looking game is LSU and Texas A&M, and even that looks like it will be a double-digit Tiger win. So, in lieu of picking Middle Tennessee, I'm going with the Gamecocks here. If only they still had <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/10821/stephen-garcia">Stephen Garcia</a> to run head-first through the Gator defense.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">***</p>
<p><strong>KingJamesIV:</strong> With a win in tomorrow’s matchup, Vanderbilt will take the all-time series lead between VU and AU (currently 20–20–1).</p>
<p>Here is a table of Vandy’s head-to-head record vs. the SEC, sorted by consecutive wins to a series lead for the Dores:</p>
<table width="100%">
<colgroup>
<col style="text-align:left;">
<col style="text-align:center;">
<col style="text-align:center;">
<col style="text-align:center;">
</colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th style="text-align:left;">Team</th> <th style="text-align:center;">W-L-T</th> <th style="text-align:center;">%</th> <th style="text-align:center;">Wins to > .500</th>
</tr></thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left;">Auburn</td>
<td style="text-align:center;">20–20–01</td>
<td style="text-align:center;">0.500</td>
<td style="text-align:center;">01</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left;">Missouri</td>
<td style="text-align:center;">02–02–01</td>
<td style="text-align:center;">0.500</td>
<td style="text-align:center;">01</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left;">Texas A&M</td>
<td style="text-align:center;">00–00–00</td>
<td style="text-align:center;">0.000</td>
<td style="text-align:center;">01</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left;">Kentucky</td>
<td style="text-align:center;">38–41–04</td>
<td style="text-align:center;">0.482</td>
<td style="text-align:center;">04</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left;">Arkansas</td>
<td style="text-align:center;">02–06–00</td>
<td style="text-align:center;">0.250</td>
<td style="text-align:center;">05</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left;">Mississppi St.</td>
<td style="text-align:center;">07–12–02</td>
<td style="text-align:center;">0.381</td>
<td style="text-align:center;">06</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left;">Mississippi</td>
<td style="text-align:center;">36–47–02</td>
<td style="text-align:center;">0.435</td>
<td style="text-align:center;">12</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left;">South Carolina</td>
<td style="text-align:center;">04–16–00</td>
<td style="text-align:center;">0.200</td>
<td style="text-align:center;">13</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left;">LSU</td>
<td style="text-align:center;">07–22–01</td>
<td style="text-align:center;">0.250</td>
<td style="text-align:center;">16</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left;">Florida</td>
<td style="text-align:center;">09–33–02</td>
<td style="text-align:center;">0.227</td>
<td style="text-align:center;">25</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left;">Georgia</td>
<td style="text-align:center;">18–52–02</td>
<td style="text-align:center;">0.264</td>
<td style="text-align:center;">35</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left;">Alabama</td>
<td style="text-align:center;">18–60–04</td>
<td style="text-align:center;">0.244</td>
<td style="text-align:center;">43</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left;">Tennessee</td>
<td style="text-align:center;">28–72–05</td>
<td style="text-align:center;">0.290</td>
<td style="text-align:center;">45</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>The Commodores are anywhere from a six and a half to an eight point favorite in Vegas. GET THAT DUBYA.</p>
<p><strong><em>The Pick: Vanderbilt 31, Auburn 17</em></strong></p>
<p><strong>SEC Upset Pick of the Week:</strong> <em>Texas A&M (+3) over LSU</em> With USC over UF off the board, the only other real possibility is TAMU winning as a home dog. Bama isn’t losing to Tennessee, Georgia isn’t losing to Kentucky, and Mississippi State isn’t losing to MTSU. For the Aggies to win, their potent offense will need to overpower LSU’s stifling defense. Fortunately for A&M, this isn’t a night game in Death Valley.</p>
https://www.anchorofgold.com/2012/10/19/3524284/saturday-predictions-auburn-at-vanderbiltChristian D'Andrea2012-10-18T12:01:04-04:002012-10-18T12:01:04-04:00Previewing Auburn/Vandy With the Experts
<figure>
<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/4dxqu8pU4IQyM_EW_igFoFo3qt0=/0x305:2891x2232/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/1594011/20121013_kdl_ac9_020.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Chuck Cook-US PRESSWIRE</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Commodores have a good chance to record their first home win over a BCS opponent on Saturday. What do the experts over at WarBlogle and College and Magnolia think about this weekend's matchup between Auburn and Vanderbilt?</p> <p style="text-align: justify;">Most Commodore fans looked at the Auburn matchup this summer and recognized it as a winnable home game for <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/115134/james-franklin" class="sbn-auto-link">James Franklin</a>. However, few Vandy supporters would have predicted that their team would be a seven-point favorite over a Tiger squad that started the season ranked in the top 25.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">The Tigers have suffered through the miserable kind of half-season that is usually reserved for the Vanderbilts and Mississippis of the SEC. Auburn's offense has been non-existent over the course of a 1-5 start in 2012, scoring just 16.2 points per game - good for 116th in I-A football. Their lone win, and only game in which they scored more than 20 points, came in an overtime effort against Sun Belt stalwart Louisiana-Monroe. Their struggles have former SEC and national Coach of the Year Gene Chizik squirming as his seat gets warmer and warmer as the fan backlash grows against him.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">No one knows that better than our blogger compatriots at <a target="_blank" href="http://www.warblogle.com">WarBlogle </a>and <a target="_blank" href="http://www.collegeandmagnolia.com">College and Magnolia</a>. Both are stellar gazettes of Tiger athletics, and both have been inundated this past month with the apathy, despair, and hints of self-loathing that Commodore fans had gotten used to during the Robbie Caldwell era. However, Auburn has the chance to cultivate some optimism with a road win in Nashville on Saturday, and you can bet that Chizik will have his team fired up in an effort to turn things around.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">We were fortunate to get the WarBlogler and Chris Furhmeiser from C&M to help preview this weekend's matchup. We mailed them a list of questions about the Tigers, and boy, did they ever deliver. Their answers are below, and if you want to read more of their work, be sure to check out WarBlogle (<a target="_blank" href="http://www.warblogle.com">www.warblogle.com) </a>and College and Magnolia (<a target="_blank" href="http://www.collegeandmagnolia.com">www.collegeandmagnolia.com</a>).</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><b>1a. Auburn's season so far: dumpster fire, or herpes outbreak?</b></p>
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<p style="text-align: justify;"><b>WarBlogler:</b> Considering I hate the term "dumpster fire," I'm going to say herpes outbreak. As far as I know, most forms of herpes are treatable. The problems with Auburn right now are treatable. They have talent, and good portion of the talent on this team have won at Auburn. The problem right now is mental due to many changes made in the offseason.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">There are two cures. Get rid of the pro style and go back to the spread, given the fact that most of the players were recruited for that. Or get rid of Scot Loeffler and bring in a more experienced play caller. One of these has to happen at the end of this season.</p>
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<p style="text-align: justify;"><b>Chris Fuhrmeister - College and Magnolia</b>: Hmm. I'd say this season has been like lying on a dirty mattress in a dumpster, contracting herpes from said mattress and then going up in flames in said dumpster. It's been a disaster that no one, not even the most pessimistic Auburn fan, could have imagined.</p>
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<p style="text-align: justify;"><b>1b. What's been the catalyst for Auburn's stale play in 2012? More specifically, the Tigers are scoring less than 12 points per game in SEC play this year. What has kept the offense from being effective this season? </b></p>
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<p style="text-align: justify;"><b>WB</b>: I guess I kind of just answered this one, but I'll elaborate. The problem goes back to style and play calling. These offensive players came to Auburn to play Malzahn's spread. There was talk that Scot Loeffler and Chizik were going to slowly transition to a full pro style in a year or two. I haven't seen that happen.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">All I've seen is sporadic, questionable play calling devoid of any flow. It's like Loeffler is running what he thinks would be balanced and will attack weaknesses while he ignores what's actually working in that game. There is no deviating from the game plan. Sometimes you have to do that.</p>
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<p style="text-align: justify;"><b>CF</b>: There have been various issues throughout the season, but it comes down to two things: poor quarterback play and erratic play-calling. <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/136333/kiehl-frazier" class="sbn-auto-link">Kiehl Frazier</a> is an incredibly talented quarterback, but is not suited to run the type of pro-style offense Scot Loeffler employs. Frazier has been running a Malzahn-type spread his entire life, and he has been lost for most of this season. To make matters worse, Frazier is a pretty emotional kid, and he gets down on himself after mistakes. After an interception or bad throw, Frazier completely loses his confidence and shuts down.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Hoping to provide a spark, Loeffler and Gene Chizik handed the keys to the offense to <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/78527/clint-moseley" class="sbn-auto-link">Clint Moseley</a> at the beginning of the second half against Arkansas. He threw a touchdown and two picks against the Hogs and didn't really do much to impress. Last week against Ole Miss, he was 8 of 8 in the first half but 3 of 10 in the second. I'm not sure if the coaches believed Moseley would actually provide a spark, but anyone that has watched him play knows that he isn't likely to be the reason an offense suddenly gets into gear.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Speaking of coaches, Loeffler's play-calling has come under quite a bit of scrutiny. With bad quarterbacks, solid running backs and a great lead-blocking full back, you might think Auburn would want to focus on the power run game. Loeffler has done that at times this year, but he always gets away from it. My guess is that he feels he needs to change things up to keep the defense off balance, but sticking to the run would do that. It would open up the pass and the sweeps and stretch plays to the outside. But Loeffler never sticks with the runs up the gut, and that leads to tougher passing situations for Auburn's underperforming quarterbacks and not much room on the outside for <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/78531/onterio-mccalebb" class="sbn-auto-link">Onterio McCalebb</a>, the Tigers' change-of-pace back. All in all, Loeffler's game plans have been puzzling at best.</p>
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<p style="text-align: justify;"><b>2a. Clint Moseley took over at quarterback four games into the season but has gone 0-2 while passing for only 275 total yards in those games. What can we expect to see from him in Nashville?</b></p>
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<p style="text-align: justify;"><b>WB</b>: He will hand the ball off a lot. He did a decent job in the passing game at Ole Miss, but when Auburn needed a score late in the game, he threw a terrible pick that showed his mental state wasn't exactly ready for that kind of pressure. Last season, when he took over halfway during the season, I believe he led the country in throwing pick 6's.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Auburn had success running the ball last week, so I fully believe they will run 75% of the time this weekend.</p>
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<p style="text-align: justify;"><b>CF</b>: As of right now, we don't even know if he'll start. Chizik hasn't released that information yet, and he probably won't until Friday. If Moseley starts, here's what you'll see: a pocket passer with a decent arm and no mobility. Moseley is capable of making good throws, but just like Frazier, he's been known to miss receivers, too. And if opposing defenses pressure him, he has no chance of avoiding a sack. He's one of the least mobile quarterbacks I've ever seen at Auburn, and that includes Brandon Cox.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Moseley did pick up a first down on a nine-yard scramble last week, but that was a rare exception and not the rule. The only thing going for Moseley is that he doesn't seem to have the confidence issues that Frazier has. When Moseley makes a bad throw, he can bounce back. That just doesn't happen with Frazier.</p>
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<p style="text-align: justify;"><b>2b. Given Auburn's unsteadiness in the passing game, can we expect to see a steady diet of runs from an above average Tiger backfield?</b></p>
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<p style="text-align: justify;"><b>WB</b>: I'd just scratch this one since I pretty much just answered that one above. :)</p>
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<p style="text-align: justify;"><b>CF</b>: I'd like to think so, but as I mentioned, Loeffler can't be trusted to stick to the run game, even when it's working. Last week against Ole Miss. Tre Mason, Auburn's best power back, received 13 carries in the first half and picked up 40 or 45 yards and two touchdowns. Auburn was tied with Ole Miss at halftime. In the second half, Mason ran the ball five times, and the Rebels outscored Auburn 24-3. I'm desperately hoping Loeffler will let the running game carry the offense for 60 minutes, but he hasn't given me any reason to believe that will happen.</p>
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<p style="text-align: justify;"><b>3a. Auburn's defense has been hit-or-miss this season, and looks particularly vulnerable in the fourth quarter. Do you trust your defenders to hold onto a lead on the road late in this game? What has been the cause of Auburn's fourth-quarter woes?</b></p>
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<p style="text-align: justify;"><b>WB</b>: I'm not really sure. They've struggled all year with the spread, so maybe it's fatigue. They did a decent job against LSU's pro-style offense, but we've all seen that their offense isn't that great. I think there are a few guys on the defense that are carrying everybody else (Senior LB <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/78533/daren-bates" class="sbn-auto-link">Daren Bates</a>) and when they tire out, the rest of the defense can't take up the slack.</p>
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<p style="text-align: justify;"><b>CF</b>: I really don't trust anything about this team, so I guess I can't trust the defense to hold onto a late lead. Honestly, the defense has taken steps forward this year, but it has too many things working against it. It's always difficult to transition to a new coordinator with a new style, but Brian VanGorder has the burden of de-Roofying his older players. Ted Roof, Auburn defensive coordinator from 2009 to '11 was just awful. He taught terrible fundamentals and instilled bad, bad habits in his players. VanGorder has been trying to un-teach those habits, but it takes time. Auburn has young talent, of which we'll see a bit more this weekend, that wasn't corrupted by Roof, and it's easy to see how much better off those players are from learning from VanGorder from the get go. Unfortunately, they're young, and they make young mistakes. The combination of older players with bad form and younger players who make green mistakes has made for an incredibly difficult transition year.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">In the fourth quarter, Auburn's defense has allowed itself to be worn down by opposing offenses and its own offense. It's tough for a unit to know it has to win the game, and for the Auburn 'D,' watching the Tiger offense perform so poorly must take its toll. And as the offense sputters, the defense is on the field longer, which takes an even bigger toll. I don't think these guys are giving up; they just aren't receiving any help from their offensive teammates.</p>
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<p style="text-align: justify;"><b>3b. Vanderbilt's offensive line has been inconsistent at best this year. Who on the Tiger defense is most likely to make a big play against ineffective Commodore blocking?</b></p>
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<p style="text-align: justify;"><b>WB</b>: <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/112891/corey-lemonier" class="sbn-auto-link">Corey Lemonier</a> has been hurrying QB's all season. For whatever reason he was non-existent against Ole Miss last week. If he can pick it up, and if <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/78557/dee-ford" class="sbn-auto-link">Dee Ford</a> comes back from injury, the Commodores can plan on seeing tons of pressure from both ends. <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/158355/gabe-wright" class="sbn-auto-link">Gabe Wright</a> and Jeff Whitaker are usually strong up the middle, but i think the ends will be doing most of the work in the backfield.</p>
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<p style="text-align: justify;"><b>CF</b>: If anyone on Auburn's defense is likely to make a play, it would have to be junior defensive end Corey Lemonier. He's a great rush end on passing downs, and his run defense has greatly improved this season. Unfortunately, Auburn's interior linemen haven't been great this year, and Auburn's other good defensive end, Dee Ford, is hurt. If Ford can't play, the offense can totally focus on stopping Lemonier. That happened against Ole Miss, and the only stat he recorded was one quarterback hurry. Lemonier is easily Auburn's best defensive player, but he needs help from his linemates.</p>
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<p style="text-align: justify;"><b>4. You'll be playing in front of a sellout crowd in Nashville - the first time in in ages that that Vandy has sold out back-to-back home games. A.) How much of that crowd do you expect to be Auburn fans making the trip, even with the rough season and B.) How do you expect the team to react in front of a slightly more raucous crowd than Vandy is known for?</b></p>
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<p style="text-align: justify;"><b>WB</b>: Prior to the Florida game last week, Vandy's last sellout was in 2008 against Auburn, when the Tigers basically lost by a 1st quarter missed XP. Gameday was in town, Vandy was ranked, and Tuberville was on the way to firing Tony Franklin. It was a frustrating day for us. I was there with about 10-12k Auburn fans. I don't expect that many this time, but Nashville is a fun place, so I do expect a decent Auburn crowd. I'll say 6-8K.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">I think playing on the road in front of louder than normal Ole Miss crowd will help the Tigers. We haven't exactly played in front of many other huge away crowds yet this year (MSU, Ole Miss), so I think they'll be used to it. No offense, but I don't feel like the crowd will play too much into it.</p>
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<p style="text-align: justify;"><b>CF</b>: I really don't know what to expect when it comes to traveling Auburn fans. Nashville is an easy drive from most Southern places, and it's a great city, so this should be a great turnout. But with the season crumbling around us, I'm not sure if a ton of fans will make the trip. There will probably be a decent contingent, but it won't be nearly as big as if the Tigers were even 3-3 or 2-4. I would be there, but I'll be attending a wedding the wedding of one of my fellow College and Magnolia writers that evening.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">I don't really think the crowd will affect the team. I've been to Vandy basketball games, so I know how rowdy and hostile Commodore fans can be, but the crowd won't be anything new to Auburn players. I really don't mean that as a shot at y'all, but many of these guys have played on the road at Georgia, LSU and/or 'Bama. If they can play in those atmospheres, they can play anywhere.</p>
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<p style="text-align: justify;"><b>5a. What do Gene Chizik's coaching prospects look like at Auburn if he loses to Vanderbilt?</b></p>
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<p style="text-align: justify;"><b>WB</b>: The "Fire Chizik' numbers grow exponentially with every loss. The outrage after the Ole Miss loss was huge. I spent all day on Twitter trying to calm the masses. It didn't work. Most have written off the season, but they'll still continue to get madder and madder anytime Auburn loses to anyone outside of UGA or Alabama.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">If Auburn loses to Vanderbilt in the same fashion they lost to Ole Miss (a late blowout), it's going to be hard for the Auburn administration to stay quiet and not acknowledge what's going on.</p>
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<p style="text-align: justify;"><b>CF</b>: Honestly, I don't think it matters. If Auburn loses, he's definitely gone, but even if the Tigers win, I think he's out the door anyway. With a loss, Auburn is more than likely looking at a 3-9 season with an 0-8 conference record. That would be the worst year on the Plains since going 0-10 in 1950. If Auburn wins, the Tigers will probably finish 4-8 and 1-7, which is still unacceptable. Most Auburn fans understood that this year would be about building a foundation to be back in the conference title conversation next season and beyond.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">So far, that hasn't happened at all. Instead of moving forward, Auburn has taken a huge step back in 2012. People are beginning to believe that 5-19 Chizik was the real thing, and 2010 Chizik was all about having the best offensive player, offensive line, defensive player and offensive coordinator in the country. Chizik deserves plenty of credit for holding that 2010 team together and keeping it on track amid all the Cam Newton stuff, but everything has gone in the wrong direction since the win over Oregon.</p>
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<p style="text-align: justify;"><b>5b. How much of this year's struggles can be tied back to Gus Malzahn's departure. What does this year say about his presence as a coach?</b></p>
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<p style="text-align: justify;"><b>WB</b>: I personally think it's huge. I want Malzahn back right now. I love his offense when he's allowed to run it full bore. He was not allowed to that last year with the struggles on defense. If he was still here, Auburn would not be attempting to move back to the pro-style, and Kiehl Frazier would be playing under the guy who designed the offense he's been playing in since 7th grade.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">I know the consensus was that he made Auburn great with his offense, and yes he definitely did, but no, I don't think that takes anything away from Chizik. 2010 was a 100% joint effort across the board. Cam Newton was one piece, a very big piece, but just one piece.</p>
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<p style="text-align: justify;"><b>CF</b>: After last season, a little bit of the shine wore off of Gus. When he has the right players in his system, it is nearly unstoppable, but when he doesn't it falls flat. Last year, Auburn ranked eighth in the SEC with 337.8 yards per game and seventh with 25.7 points per game. And frankly, I blame Malzahn for a portion of Frazier's struggles.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Malzahn knew he was leaving at the end of the year, and he sort of mailed it in. He didn't bother to teach the true freshman proper footwork or how to make reads, and those have been big issues for Frazier this season. (That's not opinion; Frazier said it himself.) If Auburn had hired a better replacement, I don't believe we would think about Malzahn at all. But even with the offense in shambles, I don't hear a ton of fans pining for Gus. They're out there, but they aren't as numerous as you may think.</p>
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<p style="text-align: justify;"><b>6. Finally, your prediction?</b></p>
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<p style="text-align: justify;"><b>WB</b>: Auburn 24, Vandy 17</p>
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<p style="text-align: justify;"><b>CF</b>: Vanderbilt and Auburn are two teams with bad records that have looked quite different. The Commodores have played well this year an easily could be 4-2. Auburn, for the most part, has looked like a 1-5 team and it can be argues that the Tigers are fortunate to not be sitting at 0-6. We're likely going to see a few younger faces starting on defense, and while they make some plays, mistakes are almost a certainty. I think Auburn's defense will do a decent job against the Vanderbilt offense, but I'm afraid Jordan Matthews will be able to make a few big receptions. The secondary will have to play back a bit, and that should open things up for Zac Stacy in the run game and underneath throws for Jordan Rodgers.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">On offense, I don't expect much out of Auburn. When the Tigers give Tre Mason his carries, the offense will be productive, but eventually, Scot Loeffler will move away from Mason, and the offense will stall. I think Auburn will be in the game for most of the afternoon, but the Tigers' fourth-quarter woes will strike again, and Vanderbilt will put the game away late. Vanderbilt 27, Auburn 17.</p>
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https://www.anchorofgold.com/2012/10/18/3521288/previewing-auburn-at-vanderbilt-with-the-auburn-experts-fromChristian D'Andrea