NCAA Baseball Tournament Selection Show

Monday May 29th at 11:00am CT on ESPN2

As hinted at in the subheading, whereas we were on the national seed bubble coming into the SEC Tournament, anything less than a top 8 National Seed would now be highly improbable.

Still, today, we get to see who joins us in the Nashville Regional and who are matched up with us in the Super Regional round.

The Projection

This makes sense. Despite winning it all in Hooverville, I expect at least two of the following three SEC teams to be seeded ahead of us: The Jorts, Gumbo Bengals, and Arky. In addition, Wake Forest from the ACC is seen as a lock to be somewhere in that top 4. D1 Baseball, for instance, has them at #1. No use debating it. They’ve been in the top two in the rankings all year, and have 22 ACC wins. Further, Clemson is on a crazy 16 game winning streak to close out the season and take the ACC Tournament Crown. They’ve got to be in the top 8, as well.

D1 Baseball’s Top 8 National Seeds

1. Wake Forest (#1 RP!)
2. Florida (#4 RPI)
3. Arkansas (#3 RPI)
4. Clemson (#6 RPI)
5. Vanderbilt (#7 RPI)
6. LSU (#5 RPI)
7. Stanford (#15 RPI)
8. Virginia (#10 RPI)

As noted above, I think the top 6 are the locks to be in the top 8, though I’m not sure about the order. Having 4 of those top 8 from the SEC and 7 of those top 8 from either the SEC or ACC also accurately reflects the state of College Baseball in 2023. We’re the top conference; they’re #2, and there is a chasm before you will reach #3.

Both Stansbury and The Wahoos are firmly on the National Seed bubble, and I think Stanford is going to get the nod—you know, they can’t just have all SEC and ACC teams for, I don’t know, reasons. Well, those reasons are Stansbury’s conference record. Even though they’re just a 38-16 overall team, they are 23-7 in the Pac 12, which, yeah, the Pac 12 sucks, but a major conference record like that’s always going to get you a National Seed, even if Arizona knocks you out of the Conference Tourney.

Would I put them in? Probably. I’d consider give the nod to The South Cackalacky Game Penises (#8 RPI), their injuries notwithstanding. Note that Kentucky is still #2 in the RPI, and no one knows how or why. They’re... fine... but no.

The interesting thing about the end of Top 8 bubble is it’s more locked in than you would think.

Miami, D1’s projected #9, is 40-19 (18-12 ACC) and lost to Clemson in the ACC Tournament Finals yesterday. I can totally see why someone would make an argument, largely citing their strong showing in the AC Tourney, to put them at #8 over UVA.

However, UVA, D1’s projected #8, is 45-12 (19-11 ACC), and, as such, has a much better regular season resume. 45-12 would speak loudly to the committee, even if from a lesser conference, like the Big XII. 45 wins and 19 ACC conference wins is likely to get it done. Beyond that, UVA swept MIami in the conference head-to-head series. You can likely stop looking there. So yeah, I largely agree with D1’s top 8, though I have no idea if they got the order right.

All right. I’m going to stop blathering. Let’s just tune in to ESPN2 at 11am CT and find out.