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Bad Gambling Advice: Week 11


March Madness Viewing Party At The Westgate Las Vegas Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images

Last week: 6-3-1 ATS, 4-6 totals; Season to date: 41-47-2 ATS, 39-48-3 totals

Well, looks like last week was a bad week for the under, with everybody suddenly deciding they want to score a ton of points. Have I learned my lesson? No.

Anyway, remember that the premise of this column is that gambling is bad and you definitely shouldn’t be this idiot who is apparently the future of sports broadcasting as the Barstoolization of sports media continues (but this is literally Barstool, so whatever, but does anybody actually want to hear the announcers heckle athletes on air because they lost a bet? Is there a market for this? Why is it the same trash that LIV Golf is trying to appeal to?)

(Meanwhile, SB Nation has shuttered like half the blogs that cover SEC teams, but there is that DraftKings-sponsored score line at the top of the page.)

Vanderbilt at South Carolina (11:00 AM CT, SEC Network): The weekly question is whether I will follow the obvious trends on Vanderbilt football or be an idiot. This week, I pick idiocy.

Prediction: (will be revealed in Saturday Predictions)

Picks: Vanderbilt +13.5, Over 58

Alabama at Kentucky (11:00 AM CT, ESPN): The gist of this matchup is that Kentucky isn’t that great, while Alabama quietly is 8-1 but the Texas loss and a couple of weeks of mediocre quarterback play ensured that we wouldn’t talk about them as a playoff contender.

Prediction: Alabama 31, Kentucky 10

Picks: Alabama -11.5, Under 46.5

Tennessee at Missouri (2:30 PM CT, CBS): Why anyone watched Joe Milton overthrow a receiver and put Tennessee as the favorite here, I’ll never know.

Prediction: Missouri 34, Tennessee 27

Picks: Missouri +1, Over 57

Auburn at Arkansas (3:00 PM CT, SEC Network): Arkansas fired its cronyism hire offensive coordinator and suddenly scored 39 points last week, and I think they’re a better team than Auburn, which does not have an offense (unless they’re playing Vanderbilt.)

Prediction: Arkansas 31, Auburn 13

Picks: Arkansas -2.5, Under 48

Ole Miss at Georgia (6:00 PM CT, ESPN): Georgia still doesn’t have a loss but has looked vulnerable for most of the season. I don’t think Ole Miss quite pulls it off, but cover the spread? Sure.

Prediction: Georgia 31, Ole Miss 24

Picks: Ole Miss +10.5, Under 58

West Virginia at Oklahoma (6:00 PM CT, FOX): The season is quickly unraveling for Oklahoma, which went from “undefeated playoff contender” to “two straight losses to Kansas and Oklahoma State” in the span of two weeks. I don’t think they’ll take another loss, but West Virginia’s surprisingly decent this season.

Prediction: Oklahoma 37, West Virginia 24

Picks: West Virginia +13.5, Over 58

Mississippi State at Texas A&M (6:30 PM CT, ESPN2): Look, Mississippi State has scored 23 points in their last three games. Somehow, they won one of those games.

Prediction: Texas A&M 28, Mississippi State 3

Picks: Texas A&M -18, Under 43

Florida at LSU (6:30 PM CT, SEC Network): Whatever happened in Florida’s loss to Arkansas last week? Anyway, this game usually gets weird, so... let’s take the Gators.

Prediction: LSU 35, Florida 28

Picks: Florida +14, Under 65.5

Texas at TCU (6:30 PM CT, ABC): I’m not sure what happened to TCU this season. The point is they suck. Only a couple more weeks of having to pretend to know about Big 12 teams. (But you pretend to know about Missourah every week!)

Prediction: Texas 31, TCU 14

Picks: Texas -10.5, Under 55