Last week: 5-4 ATS, 2-7 totals; Season to date: 26-26-1 ATS, 24-28-1 totals
So, not a great week... though picks against the spread were fine. Instead, it was picking a bunch of unders that went poorly. There were narrow scrapes (Kentucky packed it in after halftime in an easy win over Florida, but not enough to avoid going over 44.5) and there were really terrible picks (picking under 67 on an LSU-Ole Miss game that featured 104 total points.)
Back at it!
LSU at Missouri (11:00 AM CT, ESPN): I actually genuinely hate the “Vegas always knows” adage, not because it’s wrong per se but because people take it to mean they’re looking into a Magic 8-Ball or something and aren’t just setting really sharp lines. Case in point: last week, when LSU was a 2.5-point favorite at Ole Miss, it was a sign that Vegas valued LSU less than the public did (which is correct)... but LSU was also a dropped pass in the end zone away from winning, albeit not covering. This week, I’d believe you if you told me Ole Miss is about three points or so better than Missouri, and I’d also believe you if you said that perceptions of LSU shouldn’t have changed much after last week. So... no, Vegas doesn’t “know,” but the line’s accurate anyway.
Score Prediction: LSU 42, Missouri 38
Picks: Missouri +5, Over 64.5
Western Michigan at Mississippi State (11:00 AM CT, SEC Network): Mississippi State low-key sucks, but Western Michigan has gotten thrashed in two tries against Power 5 teams and... I don’t see this one going much better for them.
Score Prediction: Mississippi State 38, Western Michigan 14
Picks: Mississippi State -20.5, Under 56.5
Oklahoma vs. Texas (11:00 AM CT, ABC): Red River is one of the few rivalry games where “anything can happen” isn’t just a thing people say, it’s true. Complete dismemberments in either direction are roughly as common as upsets, and both are pretty common. That said... I’m pretty sure Oklahoma is good, but I know Texas is good, and the SEC isn’t going to be fun with these two joining next year.
Score Prediction: Texas 38, Oklahoma 31
Picks: Texas -5.5, Over 60.5
Alabama at Texas A&M (2:30 PM CT, CBS): I honestly feel like Alabama is favored mostly because of brand name and not because they really should win this game. Texas A&M weirdly vomited all over itself at Miami but otherwise has been a very solid team, and I still don’t trust Alabama’s quarterback.
Score Prediction: Texas A&M 24, Alabama 20
Picks: Texas A&M +1.5, Under 46
Vanderbilt at Florida (3:00 PM CT, SEC Network): You know, I realize it’s really stupid of me to pick Vanderbilt, a team that has yet to cover the spread this season, to cover the spread, and yet that’s exactly what I’m going to do.
Score Prediction: (see Saturday Predictions, tomorrow)
Picks: Vanderbilt +18, Under 52
Kentucky at Georgia (6:00 PM CT, ESPN): Something that Georgia has in common with Vanderbilt: neither has covered the spread this season.
Score Prediction: Georgia 28, Kentucky 17
Picks: Kentucky +14.5, Under 47.5
Arkansas at Ole Miss (6:30 PM CT, SEC Network): All right, look, we’re at “Arkansas message board posters are hitting the athletic department with FOIA requests” levels of unrest.
HawgBeat has confirmed through a Freedom of Information Act request that Arkansas OC Dan Enos' university email address responded to multiple UA students shortly after Saturday's loss to Texas A&M.— Mason Choate (@ChoateMason) October 5, 2023
Story: https://t.co/ky90mVelMv #WPS
That said, I think they’ll cover this week. But not be happy about it.
Score Prediction: Ole Miss 37, Arkansas 28
Picks: Arkansas +11.5, Over 63.5