Bad Gambling Advice: Week 4

Last week: 5-8 ATS, 10-2-1 totals

Season to date: 11-18 ATS, 17-11-1 totals

Hey, would you look at that. My picks this season between spreads and totals bets are 28-29-1, or “just bad enough that you can’t make money, just good enough that you can’t fade them either.” You’ve seen my performance in the weekly staff pick ‘em to know not to trust my picks against the spread. HOWEVER, when it comes to the over/under, well, I am the king of that. Therefore, you should expect a bad week.

Remember, the premise of this column is that I pick all the SEC games whether I think there’s a good bet or not. Were I betting actual money (I’m not and neither should you), there are some games that I would not touch with a ten-foot pole.

And this week, that includes the Vanderbilt game, mind you.

Kent State at Georgia (11:00 AM CT, SEC Network+): I don’t know, man. Do you really think Kirby is interested in running it up here? They certainly could beat Kent State by a ton of points, I just don’t know that they will.

Score prediction: Georgia 42, Kent State 3

Picks: Kent State +45, Under 62

Missouri at Auburn (11:00 AM CT, ESPN): So, let’s get this out of the way: Missouri is bad. I don’t know that they’re “will lose to Vanderbilt” bad, but they’re definitely “might lose to Vanderbilt” bad. They don’t particularly have a quarterback, their defense is strictly meh, and they’ll probably go something like 4-8.

I still do not want to pick Auburn to cover any spread you could put in front of me. That the oddsmakers are also giving me a touchdown makes this even better.

Score prediction: Auburn 28, Missouri 24

Picks: Missouri +7, Over 51.5

Bowling Green at Mississippi State (11:00 AM CT, SEC Network): Bowling Green went from losing to an FCS team to gaining a transitive win over Notre Dame. However, they are still not a good team. Also, Mississippi State is probably going to be very mad about how things went down in Baton Rouge last week. I’m not super confident about 30.5 points, but I think they’ll cover it.

Score prediction: Mississippi State 49, Bowling Green 14

Picks: Mississippi State -30.5, Over 51.5

Florida at Tennessee (2:30 PM CT, CBS): I hate admitting this, but Tennessee is a good team. They’re also facing a completely reasonable spread against a Florida team that managed to beat Utah in its opener before mailing in two performances against Kentucky and South Florida. God, I hate this.

Score prediction: Tennessee 42, Florida 24

Picks: Tennessee -10.5, Over 63

Texas at Texas Tech (2:30 PM CT, ESPN): Our first Big 12 game is... well, my wife’s going to kill me for this pick.

Score prediction: Texas 35, Texas Tech 21

Picks: Texas -6.5, Under 60

Tulsa at Ole Miss (3:00 PM CT, SEC Network): Tulsa beat Northern Illinois by 3, lost to Wyoming in overtime... I don’t know, I think Ole Miss should probably handle them.

Score prediction: Ole Miss 45, Tulsa 7

Picks: Ole Miss -21, Under 65

Northern Illinois at Kentucky (6:00 PM CT, ESPN2): Oh hey, we know those guys.

Score prediction: Kentucky 38, Northern Illinois 14

Picks: Northern Illinois +26, Under 53

Arkansas vs. Texas A&M (6:00 PM CT, ESPN): Hey, we’ve all seen Texas A&M, right? Why the hell are they favored in this game (which, remember, is played at a neutral site annually)?

Score prediction: Arkansas 28, Texas A&M 24

Picks: Arkansas +2.5, Over 48.5

New Mexico at LSU (6:30 PM CT, SEC Network+): Early returns on New Mexico indicate that they’re somewhat competent. Competent enough to hang with LSU, no; competent enough to cover 31.5? Sure, why not.

Score prediction: LSU 42, New Mexico 14

Picks: New Mexico +31.5, Over 45.5

Vanderbilt at Alabama (6:30 PM CT, SEC Network): This isn’t quite “Bama can name the final score” territory, but no, sadly, I do not believe this will be a competitive game.

Score prediction: (see Saturday Predictions tomorrow)

Picks: Alabama -40.5, Under 59

Charlotte at South Carolina (6:30 PM CT, ESPNU): Guh. I hate this game. Charlotte is still not any good even after they managed to beat Georgia State 42-41 on Saturday; this is, after all, a team that lost to William & Mary by 17. As such, I think Spencer Rattler is going to have a field day here.

Score prediction: South Carolina 49, Charlotte 21

Picks: South Carolina -22, Over 68

Kansas State at Oklahoma (7:00 PM CT, FOX): This is the new Big 12, which Oklahoma is soon to leave. The big, stupid Big 12 where the games are no longer the “first to 50 wins,” but the ones where they actually play defense and little to no offense. As such, expect a real barnburner here.

Score prediction: Oklahoma 24, Kansas State 14

Picks: Kansas State +13, Under 53