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Bad Gambling Advice: Week 3

I picked up a bad week to give up sniffing glue.

March Madness Viewing Party At The Westgate Las Vegas Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images

Season to date: 6-10 ATS, 7-9 totals

Yeah, the first week of the season was a very Bad Gambling Advice-y week, though I guess if you only faded the ATS picks you did fine. If, however, you followed the entirety of the picks, you lost. You always lose. That is the premise of this column.


Georgia at South Carolina (11:00 AM CT, ESPN): On the one hand, 24.5 points is a lot. On the other hand, Georgia’s defense has allowed one (1) field goal this season, and that’s the extent of the scoring on Georgia’s defense. Does South Carolina strike you as the type of offense that’s going to do much against that? Does a South Carolina defense whose linebackers’ ACLs are blowing up left and right seem like something that’s going to stop Stetson Bennett and Co.? No and no.

Score prediction: Georgia 35, South Carolina 3

Picks: Georgia -24.5, Under 54

Youngstown State at Kentucky (11:00 AM CT, SEC Network): I always find it interesting when ESPN decides to stick a game against a G5 team on the SEC Network+, and then ends up putting an FCS game on television. That’s what happened with Kentucky, which played Miami (Ohio) on the Plus in Week 1 and now will play Youngstown on the SEC Network. Anyway, these aren’t the glory years Youngstown teams (when they were coached by Jim Tressel) but they’re a reasonably decent FCS team that should keep this respectable.

Score prediction: Kentucky 31, Youngstown State 10

Picks: Youngstown State +27.5, Under 53.5

Abilene Christian at Missouri (11:00 AM CT, SEC Network+): Hoo boy, Missouri. This isn’t a bad week to have an FCS team on the schedule, I guess. Picking them to cover 34.5, though? Nah.

Score prediction: Missouri 35, Abilene Christian 17

Picks: Abilene Christian +34.5, Under 55.5

Oklahoma at Nebraska (11:00 AM CT, FOX): Not only is it possible that Nebraska plays better now that Scott Frost has been fired, it’s the most likely outcome. As for Oklahoma, well, I don’t know what to think just yet. Their defense seems fine (and Nebraska’s doesn’t), but are they going to score?

Score prediction: Oklahoma 31, Nebraska 24

Picks: Nebraska +10, Under 66

Ole Miss at Georgia Tech (2:30 PM CT, ABC): The rare SEC game on ABC, a thing which will become decidedly less rare after the SEC’s CBS contract expires. Anyway, Georgia Tech sucks, but I generally don’t love asking non-Alabama or Georgia teams to cover double-digit lines on the road.

Score prediction: Ole Miss 38, Georgia Tech 24

Picks: Georgia Tech +16.5, Under 62.5

Penn State at Auburn (2:30 PM CT, CBS): I know what you’re thinking. DON’T DO IT. And remember, the premise of this column is that I pick all the games. And this seems like a perfect Chaos Auburn spot, which is why were I betting real money, I would not touch this with a ten-foot pole; however, the column demands a pick.

Score prediction: Auburn 28, Penn State 21

Picks: Auburn +3, Over 47.5

Vanderbilt at Northern Illinois (2:30 PM CT, CBS Sports): You better believe I’m making a homer pick here. For the record, I would also point out that the over has hit in all three of Vanderbilt’s games this season.

Score prediction: (see Saturday Predictions, coming tomorrow)

Picks: Vanderbilt +2.5, Over 59

UL Monroe at Alabama (3:00 PM CT, SEC Network): The question isn’t whether Alabama can cover 50; the question is will they. Frankly, Alabama can pretty much name any final score they want. I will bet on Saban not running it up, even though he might want to simply by virtue of UL Monroe somehow being the most recent non-SEC team to beat Alabama in the regular season. (This is 100% true. Seriously, look it up.)

Score prediction: Alabama 45, UL Monroe 0

Picks: UL Monroe +50, Under 61.5

Mississippi State at LSU (5:00 PM CT, ESPN): Mississippi State has looked like a better team than LSU this season, and yet, you do not simply walk into Baton Rouge at night and come out with a win.

Score prediction: LSU 24, Mississippi State 21

Picks: LSU +2.5, Under 53


Score prediction: Arkansas 45, Missouri State 10

Picks: (wtf, I can’t find a line? I’ll update later when I find it)

Akron at Tennessee (6:00 PM CT, SEC Network+): Where I think Nick Saban won’t run it up on poor UL Monroe, the French’s Mustard crowd will want blood which Josh Heupel will happily provide.

Score prediction: Tennessee 63, Akron 10

Picks: Tennessee -47.5, Over 67

South Florida at Florida (6:30 PM CT, SEC Network): I would be really, really interested in why UCF and USF, which were basically the same program 20 years ago, have had such wildly divergent paths over the last decade.

Score prediction: Florida 45, South Florida 14

Picks: Florida -24, Under 60

UTSA at Texas (7:00 PM CT, LHN): While Patrick is wondering how in the hell Texas is only laying 11.5 against UTSA at home, I am aware that both (a) UTSA is pretty good, and (b) Texas will be without its starting quarterback, whose car will probably still be towed during the game either way.

Score prediction: Texas 27, UTSA 17

Picks: UTSA +11.5, Under 61

Miami at Texas A&M (8:00 PM CT, ESPN): Well, this sure is a late kickoff. Anyway, did anybody see Texas A&M lose 17-14 to App State last week and think this is a good team? No? No? Why are they favored in this game?

Score prediction: Miami 24, Texas A&M 14

Picks: Miami +6.5, Under 44