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SEC Tournament Seeding Scenarios

The top four and bottom four are easy. The middle? Not so much.

NCAA Womens Basketball: SEC Conference Tournament-South Carolina vs Mississippi State Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

With one game left in the SEC’s regular season, we take a final look at the possible seeding for the SEC Tournament.

The Top Four

This is pretty simple thanks to Auburn’s win at Mississippi State last night and the fact that Arkansas and Tennessee play each other on Saturday.

Currently, Auburn holds a one-game lead on the trio of Kentucky, Arkansas, and Tennessee, so in the event that Auburn beats South Carolina at home on Saturday, the Tigers will be the 1-seed. The Arkansas-Tennessee winner would then be the 2-seed; Kentucky would be the 3-seed with a win at Florida on Saturday with the Arkansas-Tennessee loser being the 4-seed. Should Kentucky lose, the Wildcats would drop to the 4-seed with the Arkansas-Tennessee loser being the 3-seed.

Should Auburn lose, the Arkansas-Tennessee winner is the 1-seed and Auburn is the 2-seed. Again, Kentucky is the 3-seed with a win and the 4-seed with a loss.

The Bottom Four

Vanderbilt is locked in as the 11-seed and Georgia is locked in as the 14-seed. The Commodores and Bulldogs will play on Wednesday night.

So, too, will Ole Miss and Missouri; the only thing left to determine is who the 12-seed is. Missouri holds the tiebreaker, so the Tigers are the 12-seed with either a win over Georgia or an Ole Miss loss to Vanderbilt on Saturday. Ole Miss needs a win and a Missouri loss. Not that this really matters.

The Middle

And then there’s the giant logjam of teams at 9-8 and 8-9. Thanks to Texas A&M’s win at Alabama last night, this is extremely muddled.

Okay. Mississippi State visits Texas A&M on Saturday, both are currently 8-9, and both have a tiebreaker loss to LSU. Thus, the loser of that game will be the 10-seed. That’s the only easy part here.

Of the three teams currently 9-8, Alabama simply needs a win (at LSU) to claim the 5-seed. Florida would need a win (over Kentucky) and an Alabama loss; South Carolina would need a win (at Auburn) and for both Florida and Alabama to lose.

And if all three lose, which is actually what KenPom predicts? Well, then there’s a five-way tie with those three, LSU (which would have beaten Alabama in this scenario), and the Mississippi State-Texas A&M winner. Here’s how those ties break down:

  • If Texas A&M wins: LSU (5), Alabama (6), South Carolina (7), Texas A&M (8), Florida (9)
  • If Mississippi State wins: Alabama (5), LSU (6), Florida (7), South Carolina (8), Mississippi State (9)

I’m not going through all the remaining scenarios, simply because some of these require resolving the top four first (the second tiebreaker after head-to-head is record against the 1-seed proceeding down through the 14-seed until the tie is broken. Then it goes to a coin flip, which, lol.) So I’ll just list out the records of each team against the other possible ties (and tiebreaker records against the top four) and you can do the math from there:

  • Alabama: 1-0 vs. Florida, 1-1* vs. LSU, 1-1 vs. Mississippi State, 1-0 vs. South Carolina, 0-1 vs. Texas A&M; 0-2 vs. Auburn, 1-0 vs. Arkansas, 1-0 vs. Tennessee, 0-2 vs. Kentucky
  • Florida: 0-1 vs. Alabama, 0-1 vs. LSU, 1-0 vs. Mississippi State, 1-0 vs. South Carolina, 0-1 vs. Texas A&M; 1-1 vs. Auburn, 0-1 vs. Arkansas, 0-1 vs. Tennessee, 0-1** vs. Kentucky
  • LSU: 1-1* vs. Alabama, 1-0 vs. Florida, 1-0 vs. Mississippi State, 0-1 vs. South Carolina, 2-0 vs. Texas A&M; 0-1 vs. Auburn, 0-2 vs. Arkansas, 0-1 vs. Tennessee, 1-1 vs. Kentucky
  • Mississippi State: 1-1 vs. Alabama, 0-1 vs. Florida, 0-1 vs. LSU, 1-1 vs. South Carolina, 0-0** vs. Texas A&M; 0-1 vs. Auburn, 1-1 vs. Arkansas, 0-1 vs. Tennessee, 0-1 vs. Kentucky
  • South Carolina: 0-1 vs. Alabama, 0-1 vs. Florida, 1-0 vs. LSU, 1-1 vs. Mississippi State, 1-0 vs. Texas A&M; 0-1** vs. Auburn, 0-1 vs. Arkansas, 0-2 vs. Tennessee, 0-1 vs. Kentucky
  • Texas A&M: 1-0 vs. Alabama, 1-0 vs. Florida, 0-2 vs. LSU, 0-0** vs. Mississippi State, 0-1 vs. South Carolina; 0-1 vs. Auburn, 1-1 vs. Arkansas, 0-1 vs. Tennessee, 0-1 vs. Kentucky

*Any tiebreaker scenario involving Alabama and LSU means LSU has beaten Alabama on Saturday.

**These teams play each other on Saturday.