Season to date: 21-23 ATS, 24-19-1 over/under
Yep, Bad Gambling Advice took the week off last week (mostly because I was at a work conference all week.) On the other hand, we’re back to lose you some more money. The record on over/unders concerns me because of course “24-19-1” goes completely against the premise of this column. Proceed with caution.
(Note: You should always proceed with caution. This is called Bad Gambling Advice for a reason.)
Arkansas at Georgia (11:00 AM CT, ESPN)
I don’t know what KJ Jefferson’s status for Saturday’s game is. What I do know is that I was questioning Arkansas’s ability to do much against the Georgia defense even before he left last Saturday’s game. Remember, Georgia is probably the best team in the country, so picking them to win comfortably isn’t a reflection on Arkansas being a fraud (they’re not.)
Score Prediction: Georgia 28, Arkansas 7
Picks: Georgia -18.5, Under 48
Tennessee at Missouri (11:00 AM CT, SEC Network)
Both of these teams are 2-2, and neither of these teams has looked terribly impressive. Tennessee has an ongoing quarterback controversy. Missouri doesn’t, but they’re not particularly good. The over/under is a lot of points for two offenses that aren’t particularly great. Either way, I am not recommending you bet actual money on this.
Score Prediction: Missouri 35, Tennessee 28
Picks: Missouri -3, Under 64.5
Texas at TCU (11:00 AM CT, ABC)
Texas is 2-7 against TCU since the Horned Frogs joined the Big 12, and when a Texas state legislator who is a TCU grad pointed this out during a hearing on Texas’s move to the SEC, Texas fans responded by flexing about the size of their brand and their athletic budget. Responding to fans dunking on you about a horrible record against their team by flexing about how much bigger your brand and your athletic budget are (a) isn’t the own you think it is but also (b) means that the Longhorns will probably fit right in with the SEC. Anyway, karma is coming for the Longhorns in this one.
Score Prediction: TCU 38, Texas 34
Picks: TCU +5, Over 65.5
Ole Miss at Alabama (2:30 PM CT, CBS)
If you’re new to this, a concept to familiarize yourself with is a “trap line.” What is a trap line? Well, it’s when you see Ole Miss getting 17 points (it’s since moved to 14.5) at Alabama, and thinking that the book is giving away free money with that line. The book is not giving away free money. In fact, if they’re setting that line, they are probably confident that Alabama is going to beat that ass and take your money in the process.
Score Prediction: Alabama 52, Ole Miss 31
Picks: Alabama -14.5, Over 80
Troy at South Carolina (2:30 PM CT, SEC Network)
While you might be thinking of this as a potential upset, Troy is actually bad this year — they’re 2-2 and lost to UL Monroe 29-16 last week. Therefore, don’t do it. Also, the over/under is hilariously low and I am still taking the under.
Score Prediction: South Carolina 24, Troy 10
Picks: South Carolina -7, Under 42.5
Oklahoma at Kansas State (2:30 PM CT, FOX)
LOL what even is this line.
Score Prediction: Kansas State 27, Oklahoma 20
Picks: Kansas State +10.5, Under 52.5
Florida at Kentucky (5:00 PM CT, ESPN)
For what feels like it’s probably a one-score game, going in either direction, getting 8.5 points with Kentucky feels like a lot of value.
Score Prediction: Florida 34, Kentucky 27
Picks: Kentucky +8.5, Over 55
Neither of these teams are doing much on offense, both have good defenses, so the under feels like an easy pick. The spread is a bit harder, but ultimately I think Texas A&M is the better team.
Score Prediction: Texas A&M 28, Mississippi State 17
Picks: Texas A&M -7, Under 46
UConn at Vanderbilt (6:30 PM CT, ESPNU)
If you bet actual money on this game, I would advise you to seek help for an obvious gambling problem.
Score Prediction: (will be revealed tomorrow in Saturday Predictions)
Picks: Vanderbilt -14.5, Over 52
Auburn at LSU (8:00 PM CT, ESPN)
Another game where I haven’t been impressed with either team, which usually means to go with the value play. That’s the team getting three and a half points.
Score Prediction: LSU 31, Auburn 28
Picks: Auburn +3.5, Over 55.5