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Bad Gambling Advice: Week 5

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Back from the week off to lose you some money again.

Circa Sports Expands To The Pass Casino Photo by Denise Truscello/Getty Images for Circa Sports

Season to date: 21-23 ATS, 24-19-1 over/under

Yep, Bad Gambling Advice took the week off last week (mostly because I was at a work conference all week.) On the other hand, we’re back to lose you some more money. The record on over/unders concerns me because of course “24-19-1” goes completely against the premise of this column. Proceed with caution.

(Note: You should always proceed with caution. This is called Bad Gambling Advice for a reason.)

Arkansas at Georgia (11:00 AM CT, ESPN)

I don’t know what KJ Jefferson’s status for Saturday’s game is. What I do know is that I was questioning Arkansas’s ability to do much against the Georgia defense even before he left last Saturday’s game. Remember, Georgia is probably the best team in the country, so picking them to win comfortably isn’t a reflection on Arkansas being a fraud (they’re not.)

Score Prediction: Georgia 28, Arkansas 7

Picks: Georgia -18.5, Under 48

Tennessee at Missouri (11:00 AM CT, SEC Network)

Both of these teams are 2-2, and neither of these teams has looked terribly impressive. Tennessee has an ongoing quarterback controversy. Missouri doesn’t, but they’re not particularly good. The over/under is a lot of points for two offenses that aren’t particularly great. Either way, I am not recommending you bet actual money on this.

Score Prediction: Missouri 35, Tennessee 28

Picks: Missouri -3, Under 64.5

Texas at TCU (11:00 AM CT, ABC)

Texas is 2-7 against TCU since the Horned Frogs joined the Big 12, and when a Texas state legislator who is a TCU grad pointed this out during a hearing on Texas’s move to the SEC, Texas fans responded by flexing about the size of their brand and their athletic budget. Responding to fans dunking on you about a horrible record against their team by flexing about how much bigger your brand and your athletic budget are (a) isn’t the own you think it is but also (b) means that the Longhorns will probably fit right in with the SEC. Anyway, karma is coming for the Longhorns in this one.

Score Prediction: TCU 38, Texas 34

Picks: TCU +5, Over 65.5

Ole Miss at Alabama (2:30 PM CT, CBS)

If you’re new to this, a concept to familiarize yourself with is a “trap line.” What is a trap line? Well, it’s when you see Ole Miss getting 17 points (it’s since moved to 14.5) at Alabama, and thinking that the book is giving away free money with that line. The book is not giving away free money. In fact, if they’re setting that line, they are probably confident that Alabama is going to beat that ass and take your money in the process.

Score Prediction: Alabama 52, Ole Miss 31

Picks: Alabama -14.5, Over 80

Troy at South Carolina (2:30 PM CT, SEC Network)

While you might be thinking of this as a potential upset, Troy is actually bad this year — they’re 2-2 and lost to UL Monroe 29-16 last week. Therefore, don’t do it. Also, the over/under is hilariously low and I am still taking the under.

Score Prediction: South Carolina 24, Troy 10

Picks: South Carolina -7, Under 42.5

Oklahoma at Kansas State (2:30 PM CT, FOX)

LOL what even is this line.

Score Prediction: Kansas State 27, Oklahoma 20

Picks: Kansas State +10.5, Under 52.5

Florida at Kentucky (5:00 PM CT, ESPN)

For what feels like it’s probably a one-score game, going in either direction, getting 8.5 points with Kentucky feels like a lot of value.

Score Prediction: Florida 34, Kentucky 27

Picks: Kentucky +8.5, Over 55

Mississippi State at Texas A&M (6:00 PM CT, SEC Network)

Neither of these teams are doing much on offense, both have good defenses, so the under feels like an easy pick. The spread is a bit harder, but ultimately I think Texas A&M is the better team.

Score Prediction: Texas A&M 28, Mississippi State 17

Picks: Texas A&M -7, Under 46

UConn at Vanderbilt (6:30 PM CT, ESPNU)

If you bet actual money on this game, I would advise you to seek help for an obvious gambling problem.

Score Prediction: (will be revealed tomorrow in Saturday Predictions)

Picks: Vanderbilt -14.5, Over 52

Auburn at LSU (8:00 PM CT, ESPN)

Another game where I haven’t been impressed with either team, which usually means to go with the value play. That’s the team getting three and a half points.

Score Prediction: LSU 31, Auburn 28

Picks: Auburn +3.5, Over 55.5