Last week: 6-3-1 ATS, 3-7 over/under
Season to date: 27-26-1 ATS, 27-26-1 over/under
Ah yes, Bad Gambling Advice this season is just losing you money on the vig. While 27-26-1 is technically winning, well, it’s not winning by enough to cancel out the bet price. Week 5 was actually good for ATS picks, with Texas/TCU being a push, and Missouri shockingly getting obliterated by Tennessee... but with everything else generally doing well. The over/unders, on the other hand, well... I was not expecting Tennessee to almost cover the over by itself, nor was I expecting Ole Miss/Alabama to be relatively low-scoring.
On to this week!
Oklahoma vs. Texas (11:00 AM CT, ABC, at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas)
So far, Oklahoma hasn’t given me much of a reason to trust them. I thought they would take a loss at Kansas State last week, but they survived that; now it’s on to Red River, where they might put things together... but probably not. Texas has looked impressive outside of the Arkansas game.
Score Prediction: Texas 35, Oklahoma 31
Picks: Texas +3.5, Over 63.5
Vanderbilt at Florida (11:00 AM CT, SEC Network)
Under normal circumstances, I’d advise you to stay the hell away from a huge line like this, simply because at this point you’re guessing “when will Dan Mullen pull his starters” and “will Vanderbilt score on Florida’s backups.” Under the premise of this weekly column, I have to make a pick.
Score Prediction: (will be posted in Saturday Predictions)
Picks: Vanderbilt +39, Under 59.5
Arkansas at Ole Miss (11:00 AM CT, ESPN)
This line opened at 6.5 and it’s now at 5. I liked Ole Miss at 6.5 (because winning by a touchdown wins you the bet, which is valuable) and so it’s hard to say I don’t like them at 5, because why wouldn’t I?
Score Prediction: Ole Miss 35, Arkansas 21
Picks: Ole Miss -5, Under 67
South Carolina at Tennessee (11:00 AM CT, ESPN2)
Tennessee is frankly overvalued here after a blowout win over Missouri that probably said more about Missouri than it did about the Vols. That said, South Carolina isn’t very good, so picking them (especially on the road) is kind of scary... but I think they’ll cover this line.
Score Prediction: Tennessee 31, South Carolina 21
Picks: South Carolina +10.5, Under 57
Georgia at Auburn (2:30 PM CT, CBS)
I’m quietly impressed by Auburn so far this season, especially after they went on the road and beat LSU for the first time in forever. I don’t think that will particularly matter here because they’re running into an absolute buzzsaw.
Score Prediction: Georgia 31, Auburn 7
Picks: Georgia -15.5, Under 46.5
North Texas at Missouri (3:00 PM CT, SEC Network)
No, North Texas isn’t very good. However, I am extremely interested in fading Missouri, which is 0-5 ATS this season and just got completely pantsed by Tennessee at home. Sometimes, a trend just shouldn’t be ignored.
Score Prediction: Missouri 45, North Texas 28
Picks: North Texas +19, Over 70
LSU at Kentucky (6:30 PM CT, SEC Network)
I hate picking games like this, because while LSU has looked completely dysfunctional this season, there’s always a chance they remember “oh, right, we’re much more talented than Kentucky” and win this game on the road. However, I wouldn’t bet on it.
Score Prediction: Kentucky 28, LSU 21
Picks: Kentucky -3.5, Under 51
Alabama at Texas A&M (7:00 PM CT, CBS)
If you’re still a believer in Texas A&M, well, I don’t know why you would be at this point. Their offense kind of blows and their defense isn’t going to save them against Alabama.
Score Prediction: Alabama 35, Texas A&M 7
Picks: Alabama -17.5, Under 50.5