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Vanderbilt opens as 23-point underdog to Mississippi State

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Oh.

NCAA Football: Vanderbilt at South Carolina David Yeazell-USA TODAY Sports

Coming off a near-miss at South Carolina, and coming back home to face a 3-3 team that just got blasted by 40 points by Alabama, you might think that Vegas would have a little more confidence in the Vanderbilt Commodores heading into the matchup.

You would, of course, be wrong. Vanderbilt has opened as a 23-point underdog for Saturday’s home game against Mississippi State.

The fun thing is, this is about a touchdown less generous than where Jeff Sagarin’s Predictor rating has it, viewing Vanderbilt as about a 16-point underdog since the game is in Nashville. It’s slightly less out of line with Bill Connelly’s SP+ rating, which is more bullish on Mississippi State and views them as about a three-touchdown favorite. Perhaps the unclear status of starting quarterback Ken Seals (Clark Lea said postgame that he’s “week to week”) explains the discrepancy, but then Seals didn’t play at South Carolina.