DISCLAIMER: Look, you idiots, the title of this column is “Bad Gambling Advice,” and if that doesn’t answer your questions about whether you should bet actual money based on these picks, that’s on you, not me.
So, here is the premise of the Bad Gambling Advice column, now in its second year.
First of all, I am getting many questions about the title of the column which are answered by the title of the column. But the beauty of the “Bad Gambling Advice” column is that on occasion, these picks will go 6-0 one week, and sometimes may even string together several good weeks in a row. So you can’t reliably fade these picks either; this is just straight-up bad advice, and if you bet actual money on this, you deserve to lose.
Second, the premise is simple: I look at the betting lines — both point spreads and totals — for each game involving an SEC team during the week (during basketball season, I drop these in the daily Anchor Drop), and then pick a side. Note that the lines I am picking are current as of 10 PM CT on Tuesday. Also, these may differ from my picks in the AoG staff picks as the lines may not be the same. Or, I may just randomly pick against myself. Again, you should have little confidence in these picks because I don’t have any confidence in them, either.
Anyway, on to this week’s picks!
Kentucky at Auburn (11:00 AM, SEC Network): The line is 7.5, which I can justify based on Kentucky being surprisingly cromulent under Mark Stoops over the last several years, but which I cannot justify based on them being Kentucky. The first SEC game of the year will, of course, be horribly low-scoring and unwatchable, because God hates us all.
Picks: Auburn -7.5, Under 49
Florida at Ole Miss (11:00 AM, ESPN): Lane Kiffin makes his debut as Ole Miss’s head coach. This game kicks off at 11, and at approximately 11:43 AM, everyone will suddenly remember why Lane flamed out at USC.
Picks: Florida -14.5, Over 57
Mississippi State at LSU (2:30 PM, CBS): Mike Leach makes his debut as Mississippi State’s head coach. This game kicks off at 2:30, and at approximately 3:11 PM, you will be subjected to a large quantity of dumb takes about how Mike Leach’s offense will never work in the SEC.
Picks: LSU -16.5, Under 56
Georgia at Arkansas (3:00 PM, SEC Network): You know, the SEC really should have considered having Arkansas and Vanderbilt play each other.
Picks: Georgia -26, Under 52
Alabama at Missouri (6:00 PM, ESPN): (Tom looks up and realizes that he’s picked the favorite in every game thus far.)
Ah, fuck it, let it ride.
Picks: Alabama -27, Over 56.5
Vanderbilt at Texas A&M (6:30 PM, SEC Network Alternate): As a Vanderbilt blogger, you would expect me to at least take Vanderbilt and the points, and you would be wrong. Meanwhile, the over/under is 45.5, which is practically asking me if I think A&M will score more than 45 points. I do not think they will.
Picks: Texas A&M -30.5, Under 45.5
Tennessee at South Carolina (6:30 PM, SEC Network): Oh, okay, so I’m not going to pick the favorite in every matchup.
Picks: South Carolina +3.5, Under 42.5