Last week was a week for backdoor covers and pushes. South Carolina scored a meaningless touchdown in the last minute to cover 25.5. Florida scored a last-minute touchdown to push. LSU led 24-14 at the half, then turned on the jets to push a 51-point spread.
Still, Bad Gambling Advice went 5-4-2 ATS on the week, putting the season record at an even 14-14-4. On the other hand, it went 4-5-1 on totals, putting that record at 18-12-2.
On to Week 4!
LSU at Vanderbilt (11:00 AM, SEC Network)
I continue to have faith in Vanderbilt, which will almost certainly not be rewarded here.
Projected final score: LSU 42, Vanderbilt 21
Picks: Vanderbilt +24, Over 62.5
Cal at Ole Miss (11:00 AM, ESPNU)
What’s more interesting here: that the total is a paltry 41.5, or that the Under might actually hit?
Projected final score: Cal 7, Ole Miss 6
Picks: Cal +2.5, Under 41.5
Tennessee at Florida (11:00 AM, ESPN)
Frankly, I am not a believer in either of these teams, but there is a 14-point spread, and while I don’t believe in Tennessee to cover that, I also don’t believe in Florida to cover that. Basically this means I have no confidence in any pick here.
Projected final score: Florida 31, Tennessee 21
Picks: Tennessee +14, Over 49
Southern Miss at Alabama (11:00 AM, ESPN2)
Lol why is this game on ESPN2 when Vandy-LSU Is on the SEC Network?
Projected final score: Alabama 55, Southern Miss 14
Picks: Alabama -38.5, Over 61.5
Auburn at Texas A&M (2:30 PM, CBS)
As far as this game goes, I don’t have a good feel on the outcome, which means I usually will default to the home team. I do have a good feeling about the Under, though.
Projected final score: Texas A&M 24, Auburn 20
Picks: Texas A&M -3.5, Under 48
Kentucky at Mississippi State (3:00 PM, SEC Network)
Much like the Auburn-A&M game, this is one that I can’t get a good read on. I do think there’s more value in Mississippi State because they’re the home team and the line is under a touchdown now.
Projected final score: Mississippi State 35, Kentucky 24
Picks: Mississippi State -6, Over 48.5
South Carolina at Missouri (3:00 PM, SEC Network)
I’m not a believer in South Carolina here. I think they can put up points, but I also think Missouri will put up more.
Projected final score: Missouri 45, South Carolina 31
Picks: Missouri -9, Over 61.5
San Jose State at Arkansas (6:30 PM, SEC Network)
Oh my God why
Projected final score: Arkansas 31, San Jose State 7
Picks: Arkansas -21, Under 60.5
Notre Dame at Georgia (7:00 PM, CBS)
I’m getting this weird vibe about Notre Dame that they’re so overrated that they actually end up being underrated, because basically everyone thinks they’re a fraud and that’s how you wind up with them catching 14.5 points, a line that is frankly stupid.
Projected final score: Georgia 28, Notre Dame 21
Picks: Notre Dame +14.5, Under 60.5