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Bad Gambling Advice: Week 4

We’re losing this week, boys!

March Madness Viewing Party At The Westgate Las Vegas Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images

Last week was a week for backdoor covers and pushes. South Carolina scored a meaningless touchdown in the last minute to cover 25.5. Florida scored a last-minute touchdown to push. LSU led 24-14 at the half, then turned on the jets to push a 51-point spread.

Still, Bad Gambling Advice went 5-4-2 ATS on the week, putting the season record at an even 14-14-4. On the other hand, it went 4-5-1 on totals, putting that record at 18-12-2.

On to Week 4!

LSU at Vanderbilt (11:00 AM, SEC Network)

I continue to have faith in Vanderbilt, which will almost certainly not be rewarded here.

Projected final score: LSU 42, Vanderbilt 21

Picks: Vanderbilt +24, Over 62.5

Cal at Ole Miss (11:00 AM, ESPNU)

What’s more interesting here: that the total is a paltry 41.5, or that the Under might actually hit?

Projected final score: Cal 7, Ole Miss 6

Picks: Cal +2.5, Under 41.5

Tennessee at Florida (11:00 AM, ESPN)

Frankly, I am not a believer in either of these teams, but there is a 14-point spread, and while I don’t believe in Tennessee to cover that, I also don’t believe in Florida to cover that. Basically this means I have no confidence in any pick here.

Projected final score: Florida 31, Tennessee 21

Picks: Tennessee +14, Over 49

Southern Miss at Alabama (11:00 AM, ESPN2)

Lol why is this game on ESPN2 when Vandy-LSU Is on the SEC Network?

Projected final score: Alabama 55, Southern Miss 14

Picks: Alabama -38.5, Over 61.5

Auburn at Texas A&M (2:30 PM, CBS)

As far as this game goes, I don’t have a good feel on the outcome, which means I usually will default to the home team. I do have a good feeling about the Under, though.

Projected final score: Texas A&M 24, Auburn 20

Picks: Texas A&M -3.5, Under 48

Kentucky at Mississippi State (3:00 PM, SEC Network)

Much like the Auburn-A&M game, this is one that I can’t get a good read on. I do think there’s more value in Mississippi State because they’re the home team and the line is under a touchdown now.

Projected final score: Mississippi State 35, Kentucky 24

Picks: Mississippi State -6, Over 48.5

South Carolina at Missouri (3:00 PM, SEC Network)

I’m not a believer in South Carolina here. I think they can put up points, but I also think Missouri will put up more.

Projected final score: Missouri 45, South Carolina 31

Picks: Missouri -9, Over 61.5

San Jose State at Arkansas (6:30 PM, SEC Network)

Oh my God why

Projected final score: Arkansas 31, San Jose State 7

Picks: Arkansas -21, Under 60.5

Notre Dame at Georgia (7:00 PM, CBS)

I’m getting this weird vibe about Notre Dame that they’re so overrated that they actually end up being underrated, because basically everyone thinks they’re a fraud and that’s how you wind up with them catching 14.5 points, a line that is frankly stupid.

Projected final score: Georgia 28, Notre Dame 21

Picks: Notre Dame +14.5, Under 60.5