DISCLAIMER: This Series is called “Bad Gambling Advice.” Should you rely on this post to bet actual money on the outcomes of sporting events, that is your fault, not mine. After all, this post is titled “Bad Gambling Advice,” and what part of “Bad Gambling Advice” do you not understand?
Last week, Bad Gambling Advice went 5-4-1 ATS, putting it at 9-10-2 ATS on the season. That’s bad but it’s not the criminally Bad Gambling Advice that we strive for around here. In fact, you could do worse by spending money to pay a tout for picks. And on totals, the column went 6-4 last week and is now 14-7-1 on the season, thus qualifying it as... actually somewhat good gambling advice? I don’t know, you could certainly do worse than winning two thirds of the time.
So, to increase the challenge level, I’ve gotten point spreads and totals for the FBS vs. FCS games (of which there are actually a few this week.) Yes, that means I am going to pick...
Chattanooga at Tennessee (11:00 AM, SEC Network)
Chattanooga is basically an average FCS team. Does that mean I am going to continue to fade Tennessee? You bet your ass it does.
Projected score: Tennessee 28, Chattanooga 7
Picks: Chattanooga +28, Under 51.5
Arkansas State at Georgia (11:00 AM, ESPN2)
Arkansas State is a decent team; on the other hand, they lost to SMU at home. Do I think they are capable of hanging with Georgia? No. No, I do not.
Projected final score: Georgia 45, Arkansas State 7
Picks: Georgia -33, Under 58
Kansas State at Mississippi State (11:00 AM, ESPN)
I’ve mentioned before that I am not necessarily bound by my picks in the pick ‘em contest because of line moves, and here’s the first instance where that matters. Since DotP gave us the lines, the line has moved from 6 to 8. That means that if I think Mississippi State wins by a touchdown (which I think they will), my pick here flips.
Projected final score: Mississippi State 31, Kansas State 24
Picks: Kansas State +8, Over 52
Alabama at South Carolina (2:30 PM, CBS)
Another week, another game where I have to determine just how interested Nick Saban is in covering a stupidly high spread. In Week 1, the answer was yes (Alabama covered in a 42-3 win over Duke.) In Week 2, the answer was no (Alabama beat New Mexico State 62-10 and did not cover because the line was 54.) And this week, this line screams “backdoor cover.”
Projected final score: Alabama 42, South Carolina 17
Picks: South Carolina +25.5, Under 61.5
SE Louisiana at Ole Miss (3:00 PM, SEC Network)
Southeastern Louisiana is a good enough FCS team that you can talk yourself into them giving Ole Miss a scare. I’m not actually going to call them winning outright, but this line is stupid.
Projected final score: Ole Miss 31, SE Louisiana 14
Picks: SE Louisiana +31, Under 53
Colorado State at Arkansas (3:00 PM, SEC Network)
Has anything this season convinced you that Arkansas is not trash? Then again, so is Colorado State...
Projected final score: Arkansas 28, Colorado State 21
Picks: Colorado State +10, Under 63.5
Lamar at Texas A&M (6:00 PM, ESPNU)
oh my god why
Projected final score: Texas A&M 63, Lamar 7
Picks: Texas A&M -43.5, Over 63
Kent State at Auburn (6:00 PM, ESPN2)
Gus Malzahn has already said out loud that he wishes this game were at noon so they could start getting ready for Texas A&M next week, which was meant to troll Alabama, but also should tell you about how seriously Auburn is taking this game.
Projected final score: Auburn 38, Kent State 7
Picks: Kent State +35.5, Under 52.5
Florida at Kentucky (6:00 PM, ESPN)
Kentucky QB Terry Wilson was lost for the season last week, in case you were thinking about the Wildcats making it two in a row against the Gators.
Projected final score: Florida 24, Kentucky 14
Picks: Florida -8, Under 50
Northwestern State at LSU (6:30 PM, SEC Network)
Part of me thinks Ed Orgeron will go easy on his alma mater. The other part of me remembers that Northwestern State lost to Midwestern State, a Division 2 school in Wichita Falls, Texas.
Projected final score: LSU 70, Northwestern State 0
Picks: LSU -51
SE Missouri State at Missouri (6:30 PM, SEC Network)
Fun fact: SEMO beat Southern Illinois in Week 1 by a score of 44-26. In Week 2, Southern Illinois beat UMass by a score of 45-20. SEMO is approximately 43 points better than UMass, which is allegedly an FBS team.
Projected final score: Missouri 49, SE Missouri State 21
Picks: SEMO +34, Over 67