DISCLAIMER: This Series is called “Bad Gambling Advice.” Should you rely on this post to bet actual money on the outcomes of sporting events, that is your fault, not mine. After all, this post is titled “Bad Gambling Advice,” and what part of “Bad Gambling Advice” do you not understand?
So, yeah. College football is (technically) back on Saturday. We’ve been counting down the days all summer to Vanderbilt’s season opener, which is 9 days away, but the first college football season will kick off at 6:00 PM CT on Saturday.
Hooray! Except that... well, it’s one of those neutral-site games. In Orlando. Between Florida and Miami.
Okay then. So, the premise of this weekly column is to pick the point spread and the over/under on every game involving an SEC team, with the exception of games involving an FCS team (for the simple reason that the lines often are not available on Thursday afternoon when this column goes up.)
But that does mean that the column gets started a week early. On the other hand, it means I have to debut the column with a single game.
Florida vs. Miami
So, let’s start with the easy part. The Over/Under on this game is 47. Miami last season featured a good defense and an iffy offense that suffered from poor quarterback play. With former defensive coordinator Manny Diaz promoted to head coach, the former likely won’t change; with a redshirt freshman taking over as the starting quarterback, the latter probably isn’t changing in August. Florida could occasionally score points but was also capable of getting involved in defensive slugfests like a 13-6 win over Mississippi State. Therefore, the Under is the play here.
As to the point spread, I like Miami (+7.5) for the sole reason that this is the value play: this feels destined to be a defensive slugfest, so a 7-point game is fairly likely.
And, there you have it. This column will of course be longer when there are 12 games instead of 1 next week.