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Ole Miss 81, Vanderbilt 71: Dissecting Deflation

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Shooting percentages dictated this one — nothing more, nothing less.

NCAA Basketball: Mississippi at Vanderbilt Jim Brown-USA TODAY Sports

Four Factors

Four Factors Vanderbilt Ole Miss
Four Factors Vanderbilt Ole Miss
eFG % 45.00% 54.39%
OR % 31.70% 26.70%
TO % 14.10% 16.90%
FT Rate 48.33% 38.60%

Glancing at the Four Factors, this one isn’t too difficult to figure out. Vanderbilt outrebounded Ole Miss (not in the “traditional” sense; Ole Miss grabbed 36 rebounds to Vanderbilt’s 35, but since Vanderbilt was missing more shots, Vanderbilt was getting on the glass more than Ole Miss was), won the turnover battle, and got to the free throw line more.

Yet, in spite of attempting seven more free throws than Ole Miss, Vanderbilt scored two fewer points. The Commodores’ offense also generated 60 field goal attempts to the Rebels’ 57, but scored eight fewer points. Earlier in the season, I wrote that Vanderbilt’s ability to generate shot volume would help carry the offense on bad shooting nights and this kind of shows the limits of that: generating additional shots doesn’t help you all that much if you’re missing them and the other team is hitting them. Granted, Ole Miss’s performance outside the three-point arc (6-for-18) wasn’t spectacular, but they also made 56 percent of their attempts inside the arc.

With all that said, the flow of this game was kind of the reverse of some of the previous ones: Vanderbilt didn’t start slow; instead, the Commodores got outscored 25-12 in the final ten minutes of the game. That hurts.

Individual Stats

Player MIN FG FGA 3FG 3FGA FT FTA ORB DRB REB PTS PF AST TO BLK STL GmSc AdjGS GS/Min
Player MIN FG FGA 3FG 3FGA FT FTA ORB DRB REB PTS PF AST TO BLK STL GmSc AdjGS GS/Min
Simi Shittu 33 6 9 0 0 9 15 2 7 9 21 2 3 1 1 1 20.2 27.42 0.83
Joe Toye 33 4 12 1 6 3 3 3 4 7 12 2 1 0 1 0 9.1 12.35 0.37
Matt Ryan 28 3 7 3 5 0 0 0 0 0 9 2 1 1 0 2 6.2 8.42 0.30
Clevon Brown 8 2 4 0 0 0 0 2 0 2 4 0 0 0 1 0 4.1 5.57 0.70
Yanni Wetzell 28 3 6 0 1 1 3 1 2 3 7 3 0 2 1 2 4 5.43 0.19
Saben Lee 35 3 12 0 2 3 6 0 5 5 9 2 5 2 0 1 3.8 5.16 0.15
Aaron Nesmith 18 3 9 2 5 0 0 1 2 3 8 5 1 1 1 1 3.6 4.89 0.27
Matthew Moyer 8 0 0 0 0 1 2 1 1 2 1 0 1 1 0 0 1.3 1.76 0.22
Max Evans 9 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00
  • Simi Shittu needs to get better at shooting free throws, but other than that this was a good night.
  • The rest of the team: not so great, for a variety of reasons. Joe Toye’s 9.1 AdjGS was the second-highest on the team, and it’s mostly that low because he was missing a lot of shots. I’m not in love with the idea of Toye taking this many shots, particularly when his shot isn’t falling.
  • Matt Ryan is more valuable when he’s more selective. He hit a string of three three-pointers early in the second half, but otherwise was nowhere to be seen. Which honestly is a lot better than him going 2-for-11.
  • Clevon Brown, in eight minutes of action, was the fourth-most valuable player on the team. That’s not good.
  • This is about what we’re normally expecting to get from Yanni Wetzell, who had a couple of good baskets early in the game but didn’t do much after that.
  • Saben Lee needs to get better at shooting. I don’t know how else to say it, but this is essentially what Vanderbilt is missing without Darius Garland — the difference between Garland and Lee is that only one of them can shoot the ball.
  • Not a great night for Aaron Nesmith, who fouled out in eighteen minutes.
  • I’d figured that Bryce Drew would be shortening the bench — to the extent that he could — once conference play started, and Matthew Moyer and Max Evans didn’t play much. In fact, I don’t really even remember seeing Evans in the game, though he did play eight minutes.

What’s Next

I had figured that Vanderbilt would need to split its first two games in SEC play, which makes Wednesday night’s trip to Georgia (at 5:30 PM on the SEC Network) essential. Win that and we can still legitimately talk about this as an NCAA Tournament team. Lose, and, well, maybe we can get into the NIT. The good news is that Georgia lost by 46 points on Saturday.