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NITpicking: A Statistical Overview of Vanderbilt @ St. Mary's

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Wherein I breakdown the KenPom scouting report data.

Damien, studying the numbers below.
Damien, studying the numbers below.
Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

For the sake of clarity, Vanderbilt shall be on the left, St. Mary’s on the right.

Category Offense Defense D-I Avg Offense Defense Advantage
Adj. Efficiency 112.3 (25) 99.7 (113) 102.1 108.6 (55) 99.0 (99) VANDERBILT
Adj. Tempo 63.4 (252) 64.8 62.6 (281)
Four Factors
Effective FG% 54.1 (25) 46.7 (77) 49.0 52.9 (44) 47.8 (119) VANDERBILT
Turnover % 20.5 (268) 18.4 (215) 19.1 18.8 (155) 15.6 (339) VANDERBILT
Off. Reb. % 32.1 (128) 32.8 (256) 31.1 32.8 (110) 24.5 (6) ST. MARY’S
FTA / FGA (FTRate) 42.1 (57) 34.4 (125) 37.1 34.6 (244) 33.2 (92) VANDERBILT
Miscellaneous Components
3P% 39.0 (21) 34.0 (165) 34.3 37.7 (46) 33.4 (127) VANDERBILT
2P% 51.5 (48) 44.5 (62) 47.8 50.8 (62) 46.7 (127) VANDERBILT
FT% 71.3 (100) 68.0 (104) 69.2 72.2 (71) 71.5 (291) VANDERBILT
Block% 9.8 (185) 13.2 (39) 9.6 8.2 (63) 6.3 (314) VANDERBILT
Steal% 10.0 (251) 7.6 (306) 9.4 9.6 (202) 8.0 (288) ST. MARY’S
Style Components
3PA / FGA 36.4 (115) 33.1 (141) 34.2 36.0 (123) 32.6 (127)
A / FGM 64.7 (5) 49.5 (73) 53.1 62.3 (17) 55.8 (255) VANDERBILT
Defensive Fingerprint Mostly Man X Mostly Man
Point Distribution (% of total points)
3-Pointers 30.9 (105) 29.0 (156) 28.5 31.2 (97) 32.6 (207) VANDERBILT
2-Pointers 47.4 (273) 51.0 (173) 50.8 49.7 (212) 52.8 (108) ST. MARY’S
Free Throws 21.7 (127) 20.0 (203) 20.8 19.1 (259) 19.9 (208)
Strength of Schedule
Components 103.3 (103) 99.0 (30) 102.1 104.5 (77) 102.1 (153)
Overall .6190 (73) .5000 .5664 (102) VANDERBILT
Non-conference .3947 (291) .5000 .4671 (216) ST. MARY’S
Personnel
Bench Minutes 31.9% (188) 32.2% 24.1% (327) VANDERBILT
Experience 0.71 yrs (347) 1.67 2.28 yrs (16) ST. MARY’S
Effective Height +3.6 (17) 0.0 +1.0 (113) VANDERBILT
Average Height 78.0" (23) 76.7" 76.4" (221) VANDERBILT

Ken Pomeroy's system sees Vanderbilt as the better team but it's close. By nature of it being a home game for St. Mary's, the data predicts a 67-65 Gaels victory with a 58% confidence that St. Mary's will advance.

What stands out to you?