Can a 5-Win Vanderbilt Go Bowling?

Much like a truck, a ticking clock, and Olaf's love, the NCAA has gone berserk with adding bowl games. 80 teams need to reach six wins. Could Vanderbilt profit from this?

By parlagi Oct 14, 2015, 11:00am EDT

Will this run, in front of a crowd rivaling Watertown High School's, matter in December?

Let's be honest, some D-level bowl being forced to take a 5-win team would be hilarious. It just would. I hope for this to happen every year, and I'm always disappointed. But this year is a little different -- Conference USA and the MAC seem to be a bit down, the Sun Belt is a house fire, and there are more bowls than ever.

If 80 teams don't hit six wins, someone else has to benefit by getting four extra weeks of practice, so why not Vanderbilt? Right? RIGHT? Right.

Once all the 6-win teams are taken, bowls must take the 5-win teams in order of Academic Progress Rate. Most of the teams ahead of Vandy are very likely to go bowling. Only Utah State (3-2) and Nebraska (2-4) are in the way.

So, can 80 teams find their way to six wins? Let's take a glance across the FBS, broken down by conference.

American Athletic Conference

We Skrong: Houston, Memphis, Navy, Temple (4)
Nope: Central Florida, SMU
The Hopefuls:

Team	Record	Likely Wins	Possible Wins	Possible Losses	Likely Losses	Bowl Prognosis
Cincinnati	3-2	UConn, UCF, Tulsa	at South Florida	at BYU, at ECU	at Houston	In
Tulsa	3-2	UCF	at SMU, at Tulane		at ECU, Memphis, at Cincy, Navy	In (giving them Tulane, but it's a toss-up game)
Connecticut	3-3		USF, at Tulane	ECU	at Cincy, Houston, at Temple	Out
East Carolina	3-3	Tulsa, USF, at UCF	at UConn, Cincy	Temple		In
South Florida	2-3	at UCF	SMU	Cincy, at UConn	at Navy, at ECU, Temple	Out
Tulane	2-3	at Army	at SMU	Tulsa, UConn	Houston, at Navy, at Memphis	Out (unless you want to sub them for Tulsa)

AAC Final Tally: 7 bowl teams.
Running Bowl Tally: 7 bowl teams.

Atlantic Coast Conference, Perennial Home of Ten 6-6 or 7-5 Bowl Teams

We Skrong: Clemson, Duke, Florida St., North Carolina, Pitt (5)
Nope: Virginia
The Hopefuls:

Team	Record	Likely Wins	Possible Wins	Possible Losses	Likely Losses	Bowl Prognosis
NC State	4-2	Syracuse	at Wake, at BC	at UNC	Clemson, at FSU	In
Miami (FL)	3-2	Virginia	VT, GA Tech	at UNC, at Pitt	Clemson, at Duke	In, but barely
Syracuse	3-2		at Virginia	Pitt, BC	at FSU, at L'ville, Clemson, at NC St.	Out
Boston Coll.	3-3		at Syracuse	VT, NC State	at L'ville, at Clemson, Notre Dame	Out
Virginia Tech	3-3	at Virginia	Duke, at BC	at Miami, at GA Tech, UNC		In (with Duke upset)
Wake Forest	3-3			NC State	at UNC, at L'ville, at Notre Dame, at Clemson, Duke	Egad, no
Louisville	2-3	BC, at Wake, Syracuse, UVA	at Kentucky	at Pitt	at FSU	In
Georgia Tech	2-4	at Virginia	Pitt, VT	at Miami, Georgia	FSU	Out (trade w/Miami if you want)

ACC Final Tally: 9 bowl teams.
Running Bowl Tally: 16 bowl teams.

Big Ten Conference

We Skrong: Iowa, Michigan, Michigan St., Northwestern, Ohio St., Penn St., Wisconsin (7)
Nope: Maryland, Purdue
The Hopefuls:

Team	Record	Likely Wins	Possible Wins	Possible Losses	Likely Losses	Bowl Prognosis
Illinois	4-2	at Purdue		at Wisconsin, at Minnesota	at PSU, Ohio St., at Northwestern	Out, surprisingly
Indiana	4-2	at Purdue	Rutgers, at Maryland		at Michigan St., Iowa, Michigan	In
Minnesota	4-2		Nebraska, Illinois	Wisconsin	Michigan, at OSU, at Iowa	Let's say in
Rutgers	2-3	at Army	Maryland	at Indiana	OSU, at Wisconsin, at Michigan	Out
Nebraska	2-4	at Purdue, at Rutgers		at Minnesota, Northwestern	Michigan St., Iowa	Out

Big Ten Final Tally: 9 bowl teams.
Running Bowl Tally: 25 bowl teams.

Big Twelve Conference

Our Offenses Is Skrong: Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, TCU (4)
Nope: Iowa State, Kansas
The Hopefuls:

Team	Record	Likely Wins	Possible Wins	Possible Losses	Likely Losses	Bowl Prognosis
Texas Tech	4-2	at Kansas		OK State, at WV, K-State, at Texas	at Oklahoma	In (I doubt they'll get swept in those 4 games)
Kansas State	3-2	Iowa State, at Kansas	at Texas, at TX Tech, WV	Oklahoma, Baylor		In
West Virginia	3-2	at Kansas, Iowa State	TX Tech, Texas	at K-State	at Baylor, at TCU	In
Texas	2-4	at Iowa St., Kansas	Texas Tech	K-State, at WV	at Baylor	Out (but getting in wouldn't be shocking)

Big Twelve Final Tally: 7 bowl teams.
Running Bowl Tally: 32 bowl teams.
Programming Note: Thanks for sucking so much, Kansas.

Conference USA

We Skrong: Louisiana Tech, Marshall, Western Kentucky (3)
Nope: Charlotte, Florida Atlantic, North Texas
The Hopefuls:

Team	Record	Likely Wins	Possible Wins	Possible Losses	Likely Losses	Bowl Prognosis
Florida International	3-3	Old Dominion, Charlotte	at FAU	at MTSU	at Marshall, WKU	In (Go FAU!)
Rice	3-3	Army, at UTEP, Charlotte	Southern Miss, at UTSA		LA Tech	In
Southern Miss	3-3	at Charlotte, UTEP, ODU	UTSA	at Rice	at LA Tech	In
Old Dominion	2-3		Charlotte, UTEP, FAU	at UTSA	at FIU, WKU, at Southern Miss	Out (it'll be close)
MTSU	2-4	North Texas	FIU, at FAU, at UTSA		at LA Tech, Marshall	Out (I don't think they'll sweep those 3)
UTEP	2-4	at North Texas	FAU	at ODU	at Southern Miss, Rice, at LA Tech	Out
Texas-San Antonio	1-5	at North Texas	ODU, at Charlotte	at Southern Miss, Rice, MTSU		Out (but at least they'll get some wins)

Conference USA Final Tally: 6 bowl teams.
Running Bowl Tally: 38 bowl teams.

Independents

We Skrong: BYU and Notre Dame (2)
Nope: Army
Running Bowl Tally: 40 bowl teams.

Mid-American Conference, Perennial Home of the ACC Lite 6-6 Bowl Teams

We Skrong: Ohio, Toledo, Bowling Green (3)
Nope: Eastern Michigan, Massachusetts, Miami (OH)
The Hopefuls:

Team	Record	Likely Wins	Possible Wins	Possible Losses	Likely Losses	Bowl Prognosis
Akron	3-3	at Miami	CMU, at UMass, Buffalo, Kent		at Bowling Green	In
N. Illinois	3-3	at Miami, EMU, WMU	at Buffalo	Ohio	at Toledo	In
Buffalo	2-3	UMass	at Miami, at Kent	at CMU, Ohio, NIU, at Akron		In (should get one upset)
Western Michigan	2-3	at EMU, Miami	Ball St.	Bowling Green	at Ohio, at NIU, at Toledo	Out
Ball State	2-4	Georgia St., UMass		CMU, at WMU, Bowling Green	at Ohio	Out
Central Michigan	2-4	EMU	Buffalo, at Ball St., at Kent	at Akron	Toledo	In (barely)
Kent St.	2-4		at UMass	Buffalo, CMU, at Akron	Bowling Green, at Ohio	Out

MAC Final Tally: 7 bowl teams.
Running Bowl Tally: 47 bowl teams.

Mountain West Conference

We Skrong: Boise State (1)
Nope: Wyoming, Fresno State
The Hopefuls:

Team	Record	Likely Wins	Possible Wins	Possible Losses	Likely Losses	Bowl Prognosis
Air Force	3-2	Fresno St., at Hawaii, Army, at New Mexico	at Colorado St.	Utah St.	at Boise St.	In
Utah St.	3-2	Wyoming, at N. Mexico, Nevada	at SDSU, at Air Force	Boise St., BYU		In
New Mexico	3-3			Hawaii, Colorado St.	at SJSU, Utah St., Boise St., Air Force	Out (their 3 wins are 0-6, 0-6, and 0-5 teams)
Nevada	3-3	at Wyoming, Hawaii	at Fresno St., San Jose St.	at SDSU	at Utah St.	In
San Diego St.	3-3	Wyoming	at UNLV, Nevada	at SJSU, Utah St., at Colorado St.		In (barely, go UNLV)
San Jose St.	3-3	New Mexico	SDSU, at Hawaii	at Nevada	BYU, Boise St.	In (barely, go Aztecs)
Colorado St.	2-4	at Wyoming	SDSU, UNLV, at N. Mexico, at Fresno St.	Air Force		In
Hawaii	2-4		at N. Mexico, Fresno St., ULM	at UNLV, San Jose St.	at Nevada, Air Force	No (barely, go ULM)
UNLV	2-4	at Wyoming	at Fresno St., Hawaii	at Colorado St., San Diego St.	Boise St.	No (barely, go Fresno)

MWC Final Tally: 7 bowl teams.
Running Bowl Tally: 54 bowl teams.

Pac-12 Conference

We Skrong: California, Stanford, UCLA, Utah (4)
Nope: None yet, as such.
The Hopefuls:

Team	Record	Likely Wins	Possible Wins	Possible Losses	Likely Losses	Bowl Prognosis
Arizona	4-2		at Colorado, WSU	at Washington, Utah	at USC, at Arizona St.	In (go Colorado!)
Arizona St.	4-2	Arizona	Oregon, at WSU, Washington	at Utah, at Cal		In
USC	3-2	at Colorado, Arizona	at Cal, UCLA	at Notre Dame, Utah, at Oregon		In
Washington	3-2	at Oregon St., WSU	Oregon, Arizona	Utah, at Arizona St.	at Stanford	In
Wash. St.	3-2		Oregon St., Colorado	at Arizona, at Arizona St.	Stanford, at UCLA, at Washington	Nah
Colorado	3-3			Arizona, at Oregon St., at WSU	at UCLA, Stanford, USC, at Utah	No (13 games due to Hawaii road trip)
Oregon	3-3	Oregon St.	Cal	at Washington, at Arizona St., USC	at Stanford	In (shouldn't get swept in those four road games)
Oregon St.	2-3		Colorado	at WSU	at Utah, UCLA, at Cal, Washington, at Oregon	No

Pac-12 Final Tally: 8 bowl teams.
Running Bowl Tally: 62 bowl teams.

Southeastern Conference

We Skrong: Alabama, Florida, Georgia, LSU, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Texas A&M (7)
Nope: South Carolina, Vanderbilt (since this article is based on Vandy finishing 5-7)
Programming Note: For the sake of the article, we'll say Vandy beats Houston (since it won't hurt them), SC (they're out anyway), and Kentucky (to get Mizzou into a bowl).
The Hopefuls:

Team	Record	Likely Wins	Possible Wins	Possible Losses	Likely Losses	Bowl Prognosis
Kentucky	4-1	Charlotte	Auburn	UT, Louisville	at MSU, at Georgia, at VU*	In
Missouri	4-2	at VU*		MSU, BYU, UT, at Arkansas	at Georgia	Let's say in, I guess.
Auburn	3-2	Idaho		at UK, at Arkansas, Ole Miss, Georgia	at Texas A&M, Alabama	Out
Tennessee	3-3	North Texas, S. Carolina, VU*	at Kentucky, at Mizzou		at Alabama	In
Arkansas	2-4	UT-Martin	Auburn, Mizzou	MSU, at Ole Miss	at LSU	Let's say they're in.

SEC Final Tally: 11 bowl teams. (Giving Arkansas the benefit of one upset is fine. I feel like I'm really giving Missouri a lot, but whatever. Let's just say they knock off someone besides Arkansas and move on.)
Running Bowl Tally: 73 bowl teams.

Sun Belt Conference

We Skrong: Appalachian State, Georgia Southern (2)
Nope: Georgia St., Idaho, New Mexico St.
Programming Note: Good grief, is this conference ever a disaster area.
The Hopefuls:

Team	Record	Likely Wins	Possible Wins	Possible Losses	Likely Losses	Bowl Prognosis
South Alabama	3-2	Idaho, at Georgia St.	Ark. St., at Texas St., at UL-Lafayette	App St.	at Ga. Southern	In
Arkansas St.	2-3	Georgia St., at NM St., Texas St.	UL-Lafayette, at UL-Monroe	at USA	at App St.	In
UL-Lafayette	2-3	ULM, at Georgia St., NM St., Troy		at Ark. St., at USA	at App St.	In
UL-Monroe	1-4	NM St.	at Idaho	App St., at Troy, at TX St., at Hawaii	at UL-Lafayette	No
Texas St.	1-4	NM St., Georgia St.	ULM, at Idaho	at USA	at Ga. Southern, at Arkansas St.	Not quite
Troy	1-4	Idaho, at NM St.	ULM, at Georgia St.		at App St., at ULL, Ga. Southern	Nah (nice try, though)

Sun Belt Final Tally: 5 bowl teams.
Running Bowl Tally: 78 bowl teams.

So there we have it, two leftover bowl slots.

In theory, if this were accurate (and it won't be) the two 5-7 teams would be Vanderbilt and ... either Nebraska or Boston College. Uh, well then. If you've been chomping at the bit for a rematch of the 2008 Music City Bowl, except between 5-7 teams and played on the home field of NAIA Faulkner University, then make plans to attend the 2015 Camellia Bowl. Montgomery, Alabama, we're coming for you.

Can a 5-Win Vanderbilt Go Bowling?

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