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Vanderbilt vs. Murray St. - NCAAT - Open GameThread

 

24-8 (12-4)
21 (AP)
22 (USA Today)

March 18, 2010
13:30 CT
TV:
CBS (Comcast CH 5 or 233 HD)
Online: NCAA MMOD
Radio: Click Here


30-4 (9-7)
NR (AP)
NR (USA Today)

 

Post your pregame, in-game, and post-game comments and thoughts below.

44 comments  |  0 recs |

Vanderbilt vs. Murray St. - Game Previews

I dare you to question Beal's focus right now. (AP Photo/Paul Sakuma)

More photos » Paul Sakuma - AP

I dare you to question Beal's focus right now. (AP Photo/Paul Sakuma)

I'll be sure to update this post with any additional stories that I come across between now and the start. Until then, know that the game thread will go live around 10.00 CT tomorrow morning. Make sure to swing by Stat-King to weigh in on the Murray St. game.

Game Previews

Commodores and Racers clash at 1:30 p.m. CT - VANDERBILT OFFICIAL ATHLETIC SITE

NCAA West Regional: Vanderbilt - Murray State Preview | Dore Posts

The Audacity of Hoops: Similarity Previews: 1st Round

SEC fans can’t decide whether or not Vandy should be scared of Murray State. These numbers say “not.” Vanderbilt’s offense has performed well against turnover-reliant defenses like Tennessee and Missouri, while Murray State’s offense hasn’t really shown up in most of their games against even halfway decent defenses. My system loves Vandy in this one

At NCAA tourney, ‘Dores seem stuck on Sweet Sixteen | Nashville City Paper

Vanderbilt to face nearby foe at far away place in NCAA's first round | Nashville City Paper

MSU's Kennedy talks about first-round matchup | VandySports.com (Rivals - Premium)

NCAA: We’re taking Murray State seriously, but… | Save the Shield!

Vandy men guard against unlucky 13 seed | The Tennessean

How We Got Here: A Brief Recap of Vanderbilt's Season So Far | Vanderbilt Sports Line

Uncomfortably warm pendant light fixture on: AJ Ogilvy | The Vanderbilt Vendidad

More after the jump...

Poll
Margin of Victory - Vanderbilt vs. Murray St. - NCAAT
Vanderbilt by 10+
29 votes
Vanderbilt by <10
11 votes
Murray St. by <10
5 votes
Murray St. by 10+
3 votes

48 votes | Poll has closed

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(Possibly Apocryphal) Scouting Report: A.J. Ogilvy

Throwing "U-S-A" chants at him is like sitting Spike Lee courtside for a Reggie Miller game against the Knicks.

Throwing "U-S-A" chants at him is like sitting Spike Lee courtside for a Reggie Miller game against the Knicks.

Position: C (Center)

Height: 6'11"

Weight: 250

Nickname(s): The Australian Sheik, Zombilvy, Uggs, Stinkmonster, the Sweat-Golem, Crocodile Dunk-ee

Strengths: Chippy-ness; finishing with either hand; mid-range shooting; growing facial hair; hustle; sweating; punking opposing centers; frustrating opposing coaches; frustrating Vandy fans; feeding off your blind xenophobia; handling passes in the paint.

Weaknesses: Finishing said passes in the paint; going hard to the rim in traffic, during fast-breaks, or in front of an audience; getting his yelling:rebounding ratio to even out; playing knifey-spoony; mastering the basic concepts of what hair and clothing choices a young man should make (see below).

Overview: A.J. Ogilvy is a bigger tease than your sophomore year girlfriend. Few other Vanderbilt players have been able to completely dominate games one week and then essentially disappear the next. If he's on, the 'Dores can simply feed him in the post and watch him go to work, as his back-to-the-basket game is one of the best in the NCAA - especially with his size and strength. He's a threat to spring for 20+ points on any given night with a combination of post moves and effectiveness from the free throw line; this makes it even more frustrating when he puts up a 2-8, 3-11, or even 0-4 night shooting from the field. 

Fun Fact: Despite being Australian, still does not fully understand the concept of the drinking game "Quarters."  Namely, the concept of removing the quarter from the beer once a shot is made. In a game with former roommate Keegan Bell, the big man ended up drinking seven Coors Lights and $3.50 in change before combing down his mustache and heading to The Stage.

Most embarrassing Google search result: Ugg! Our New Basketball Star - from the Sydney Morning Herald:

"They're these huge things, kind of like those boots the girls wear, but for guys. He lugs around in them and they come up to just below his knees.

"They've got cotton inside them with what looks like suede material on the outside. I've never seen anything like them."

That's right, our starting center - the source of toughness on the team - wears (or at least wore) Uggs. No word as to whether he pairs them with a jean skirt or just throws them on over a pair of tights during breezy spring Nashville days.

Bonus points for having an article simply dedicated to the highlights that A.J. has rocked in his hair during the 2010 season.

Best YouTube clip: Ogilvy puts back Jermaine Beal's miss to tie this year's Georgia game at Memorial with 15 seconds left.

Poll
A.J. Ogilvy - how much do you love him?

  48 votes | Results

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6 comments  |  1 recs |

Scouting Murray St. - Statistical Breakdown

Actually, Coach, the difference in SOS is larger than that. (AP Photo/Dave Martin)

More photos » Dave Martin - AP

Actually, Coach, the difference in SOS is larger than that. (AP Photo/Dave Martin)

At first glance, Murray State's individual stats are quite impressive. Issac Miles sweeps the PG slot in tempo free statistics over Jermaine Beal. Same with Ivan Aska over Andre Walker in the PF slot and Tony Easley over A.J. Ogilvy in the C slot. Jeffery Taylor is the only Commodore to sweep his opponent (Danero Thomas), with John Jenkins taking two of three against his evil doppelgänger B.J. Jenkins. Even the Murray State bench sweeps the Commodores. The doubt starts creeping into the back of your mind...

 

...then you realize that all the individual statistics are not adjusted for strength of schedule. Murray State's offensive and defensive efficiencies are adjusted (of course that begs the question of how well someone can devise a formula to accurately adjust for the disparity between strength of schedules as vast as the two in this matchup...), but the problem still remains for their tempo-free team statistics.

Trying to divine accurately just how good Murray State could be is like trying to shoot a moving target in a room with no lights and no windows. Next to impossible. Nobody that is making predictions on this game has any clue, including myself. I cannot imagine how statistically powerful the Commodores would look if they had played such a schedule. Would their blocks have skyrocketed? (Yes) Would their scoring margin have skyrocketed? (Yes) Would their...you get the picture. Would they be prepared to play a team that is light-years ahead of any team they had played all season? Probably not.

And that fact remains. Murray State hasn't seen a team this season that looks like Vanderbilt does when they step off the bus. Period. And it's not as if Vanderbilt is without talent. The Commodores are a legit Top 20 team. They've proven themselves. Murray State hasn't proven anything other than how well they can beat up on a weak schedule.

Predictions and traditional stats after the jump...

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The NCAA's Worst Losses: Murray State

Vanderbilt's rebounding hasn't particularly inspired confidence this year. Will that be a major concern against OVC Champs Murray State? (AP Photo/Wade Payne)

More photos » Wade Payne - AP

Vanderbilt's rebounding hasn't particularly inspired confidence this year. Will that be a major concern against OVC Champs Murray State? (AP Photo/Wade Payne)

With only four losses, Murray State holds one of the best records in the NCAA. Unfortunately for them, since their schedule has been so weak their 30-4 record doesn't even put the team in the Top 50 in most college basketball rankings. Their first-round match-up with Vanderbilt will be just the team's second game of the season against a Top 75 team, and their first game against a NCAA Tournament team since their opening game loss to California in Berkeley back in November. defeating East Tennessee State in December.

Murray State has had trouble on the road, accounting for all four of their losses, but went 4-0 in games held at neutral sites, including two OVC Tournament wins to clinch their spot in the NCAA Tournament. Conversely, Vanderbilt went only 2-3 on neutral courts, but their losses came against much stronger competition - Mississippi State (SEC Tournament), Cincinnati (Maui Invitational), and Western Kentucky. The Commodores also had one fewer road loss despite having a Strength of Schedule rank nearly 250 spots higher than the Racers.

Only four games this year showed that Murray State can be beaten; let's take a look at their biggest misstep and see what we can learn.

Murray State (30-4, AP NR, Coaches' NR)

Worst Loss: at Western Kentucky (RPI #133, KenPom #121), 72-83
Other Losses: at California, at Morehead State, at Louisiana Tech

The Racers (RPI #56, KenPom #57) have at least one thing in common with the Commodores - their worst loss came against the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers away from their home court. Familiar foe A.J. Slaughter tore up the Racers to the tune of 20 points, nine assists, and four steals as WKU shot their way past Murray State to deal the visiting team their third loss of the season. After this game, MSU wouldn't lose again until 17 games later versus Morehead State.

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8 comments  |  1 recs |

Know Your Enemy: Billy Kennedy

Billy Kennedy is getting the most out of the Racers by pushing them into a balanced, uptempo game.

Billy Kennedy is getting the most out of the Racers by pushing them into a balanced, uptempo game.

Billy Kennedy knows a little something about low-major programs. Kennedy is Murray State's head coach, and he's been a staple of the southeastern low-major hoops scene since 1997. He earned a reputation as a strong leader after turning around programs at Centenary and Southeast Louisiana before heading to MSU after a year assisting at Miami (FL). Over the course of a 25 year coaching career, Kennedy has shown a trend of building teams up from mediocrity and into conference stalwarts. He's been named a NABO District Coach of the Year three times in the past seven years; his 2010 Racer squad will mark his second Automatic Bid since 2005.

This article was originally going to chronicle Murray State's best player, but after looking at the Racers' roster, it's clear that their biggest threat to the Commodores is their head coach. Kennedy has assembled one of the most well balanced teams in the country. Four of the team's starters were selected to the ten-man Ohio Valley Conference All-Conference team, and MSU also accounted for the league's Sixth Man of the Year. Just look at these stats:

Ivan Aska F 10.6 4.9 0.7
B.J. Jenkins G 10.5 2.5 3.2
Danero Thomas F 10.4 4.2 2.5
Tony Easley C 10.4 5.8 1.0
Isaiah Canaan G 10.3 2.3 1.6
Isacc Miles G 9.5 2.7 3.8

That's impressive balance from a team that excelled at winning games in 2009-2010. With a lineup like that,  the Racers have options across the court to pick up the scoring load against Vanderbilt - a potential reason why SI.com's Stewart Mandel considered them his top Cinderella candidate. He also called Vandy a Final Four sleeper, so we know he's legit.

This depth plays a huge role in Kennedy's system, as the Racers push the pace to create easy baskets and instant offense. Ten players average over 10 minutes a game for MSU, and no player averages more than 26 on the team. The team's overall shooting - 50.3% from the field - will give them a punchers chance, even though they haven't faced a team like Vanderbilt this year.

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Scouting Murray St. - Schedule Breakdown

Morehead St. was the 2nd best team Murray St. has played all season. Enough said. (AP Photo/Frederick Breedon)

More photos » Frederick Breedon - AP

Morehead St. was the 2nd best team Murray St. has played all season. Enough said. (AP Photo/Frederick Breedon)

I'm breaking down the traditional periscope post into multiple entries. First up, Schedule Breakdown.

 

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The First Annual AoG Bubble Team Draft: The Results

Vandy Dan celebrates as his hand is raised after winning the inaugural AoG Bubble Team Draft.

Vandy Dan celebrates as his hand is raised after winning the inaugural AoG Bubble Team Draft.

Results:
Vandy Dan 42
Train Island 37
Vandy10 23
KingJamesIV 19
bloggywo 7

In the end, there was Vandy Dan and then everyone else. His Utah State pick was the only major bonus point scorer (12 seed or higher). Thanks to Cornell's auto-bid, New Mexico State's WAC championship, and UTEP's prior-week ranking, there wasn't much room for the at-large picks ranked 12 and up. Dan went 5-of-6 and didn't miss a pick until the final round. I came in a close second but, as predicted, Rhode Island's late season bed-wetting sunk me. Full results:

GM  Round 1  Round 3  Round 5
Vandy10  Marquette (6)  6 Wake Forest (9)  7 Memphis (out) -2
KingJamesIV  Texas (8) 7 Virginia Tech (out) -2 Georgia Tech (10) 9
Vandy Dan  Louisville (9) 7 Utah State (12) 12 San Diego St. (11) 9
Train Island  Richmond (7) 7 California (8) 7 Rhode Island (out) -2
bloggywo  Mississippi State (out) -2 Ole Miss (out) -2 Arizona St. (out) -2
Round 2  Round 4  Round 6
bloggywo  Florida (10) 9 Notre Dame (6)  6 Illinois (out) -2
Train Island  Oklahoma State (7) 7 Missouri (10) 9 Washington (11) 9
Vandy Dan  Old Dominion (11) 9 Florida State (9) 7 Dayton (out) -2
KingJamesIV  Saint Mary's (10) 9 UAB (out) -2 Kent State (out) -2
Vandy10  Clemson (7) 7 UNLV (8) 7 Miami (Fl.) (out) -2

Upon reflection, the Arizona State pick was worth just as many points as Harvard would have been - and twice as classy - and Kent State and Miami's home run conference tournament champion picks both backfired. Only one eligible at-large team made the tournament but wasn't picked - Minnesota. Only 30% of the teams picked in the last two rounds got bids, and the first real miss was Round 3's Virginia Tech (Mississippi State doesn't count, as they were merely an avenue to punish 'wo).

So all hail VandyDan, as his nearly-perfect draft earned him this year's title. And let's not forget to commend Vandy10 and KingJamesIV for their terrible choices, as well as bloggywo and his innate ability to hold the draft up for days at a time by not posting. Revenge swings around swiftly though, with the first annual Anchor of Gold Tournament Pick'em Challenge. Champions there will earn the right to make fun of the staff and obtain a possibly disproportionate sense of smug self-satisfaction.

http://games.espn.go.com/tcmen/en/group?groupID=29302
Group Name: Anchor of Gold
Password: swagga

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