A lot of VU fans are advocating resting Sonny Gray for the second game, in the belief that Vanderbilt can cakewalk all over Illinois State just like we cakewalked all over Murray State.... err, I mean, in the belief that Taylor Hill is plenty good enough to beat Ill State.  If I had to guess, I'd imagine Corbin will stick to the rotation because he usually does (with the exception of 2008, right?).  But what should we do?

I don't know VU's personnel, let alone Louisville's and Illinois State's, enough to have an intelligent opinion, but I can tell how I'd answer this question.

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As you might know by now, Vanderbilt was not selected as a regional host for the 2010 NCAA Baseball Championship.  Connecticut, after an inferior season by any objective measure, was selected.  Should I be outraged?

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I'm still learning my way around here so I'm not sure what the most appropriate way to cross post stuff I write on VandySports is.  Please bear with me.

So, you can read the antecedent discussion here if you wish.  force10jc gives voice to something a lot of us are thinking about this week: "I see Butler playing for a National Championship as a 5-seed and can't help but ask why not us as a 4-seed."   Here's my detailed discussion -- NOT an answer to the question, but rather a discussion of the method I'd use to answer the question -- because at the end of the day, I think it's largely an overreaction to a small sample of data.   (Just because I'm calling it an overreaction doesn't mean I don't wonder this too!)

I think there's some element of luck and some element of merit. However, to keep us focused on the latter, here's a far more interesting question to me: How is that Butler is the 12th most efficient team in the land and Vanderbilt has topped out at 23rd (2004) or more recently 35th (2007, 2010)?

If you're consistently in the top 12 in efficiency over a decade, you're much more likely to make a FF than if you're consistently between 20th and 30th. 

So then, the primary way Butler is so efficient is absolutely awesome defense. In the broad category of defense, they do all the following well (top third of D-I) but in descending order of rank: rebound defensively (14th), make the other team miss shots, cause turnovers, avoid fouling. They're much shorter than Vanderbilt but much better at DReb so I'd start there.

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The San Francisco Vanderbilt Alumni club, in cooperation with the National Commodore Club, is doing an official pre-game at the Brittania Arms in San Jose, just down the street from the Tank.  Click here for the details - if you're in town, come out at 9:30 Thursday morning and join the festivities before the fun starts up.  If you were in Moraga back in November, this is the perfect bookend to a great season, so all local 'Dores, let's get out there, make like Tupac, and show our boys some California love!

Ok, so I figured if everyone else can do it, so can I!  Crunched some numbers ... did some sanity-checking ... and came up with a ridiculously accurate bracket for y'all. 

1. Minnesota and Mississippi State are currently out.  If they win tomorrow, Virginia Tech and Oklahoma State will suffer for it. 

2. Duke is not a #1 seed.  Blame their pathetic road record.  West Virginia gets the fourth #1 by virtue of their Big East tournament win. 

3. Vanderbilt and Tennessee are #20 and #21 in the straight numbers S-curve.  Given some obvious overratings, both move up to a 4 seed (#14 and #15 respectively).

4. Without a Mississippi State upset, the SEC has 3 teams dancing. 

5. Kent State is the highest ranked team in the straight numbers S-curve to be left out of the dance.

The bracket appears magically after the jump ...

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Thought this may be of some interest to the baseball followers: 

#24 in Baseball America

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/college/top-25/2010/269622.html

#20 in USA Today/ESPN

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/college/baseball/usatpoll.htm

We also lead the SEC with a 2.21 ERA overall and 108 Strike outs despite having pitched the 2nd most innings in the conference (102 IP compared to a league high of 103 by Georgia).  Hitting wise, the team averages a .349, only behind Auburn who hits a .373.

http://www.secsports.com/sport_stats/Baseball/2010/lgsumm.htm

I think it is safe to say that the SEC Coach of the Year race is likely down to essentially one candidate with a second in tow for consideration.  Sure, Calipari won the conference with 14 total wins, but name one respected media analyst that picked Kentucky to finish worse than first during the preseason media days?  Anyone?  Even Vegas thought Kentucky was a slam dunk – here was the prospect bet on November 12 for the SEC East champion:

By default, the coach of the conference champion is normally the coach of the year winner.  But because Kentucky was a clear frontrunner from the beginning, I would encourage the voters to take a closer look. (hold your “but he can recruit” BS)

Going back to the original COY analysis, you will find that the starting five for Kentucky includes four 5-star recruits while Vanderbilt starts four 4-star recruits.  The predictive player effectiveness calculations based on actual results shows that Kevin Stallings (+3.19) got more production out of his players than John Calipari (+.76)

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 This is just for fun ... based on the other data I'm tracking, I made a composite ranking (1/2 RPI, 1/6 Pomeroy, 1/6 Sagarin, 1/6 BBState) and graphed it over the past month and a half.  I'm putting the NCAA bubble line at 50.  Mississippi State is the closest to crashing the party, with Florida the most tenuous of the teams on the inside. 

Let me know what you think! 

A somwhat volatile week in the SEC.  Florida continues their steady rise into NCAA Tournament contention, while Tennessee slips a little further back in the seedings.  I think we have four clear NCAA Tournament teams now - Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Florida, and Tennessee.  Some might argue that Florida is still near the bubble, but I think a 1-2 finish should keep them in there since their remaining schedule is very RPI favorable.  

What's wrong with the SEC West?  Shouldn't Mississippi or Mississippi State have run away from that nasty junkyard dog pack by now?    I actually think State might still do that, but now is definitely the time. 

Numbers for your consideration ...

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After the loss to Kentucky, I heard a number of national sports radio hosts discuss how John Calipari could be the national Coach of the Year.  Calipari is an excellent recruiter and damn good motivator (components of a good coach), but he should not be national coach of the year.  But, I quickly realized the velocity that this message began to circulate throughout sports circles.  So, I thought I would use a test sample of SEC East programs to determine who would be the best coach in the division.  The winner is Kevin Stallings.

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