The SEC's Worst Losses: Florida (Part I)
Vanderbilt just barely snuck back into the national rankings before absorbing a predictable loss at Arkansas earlier this week. If they want to keep their spot in the top 25, they'll have to win at the O-Dome.
Vandy will face arguably their toughest test of the season on Saturday, facing #12 Florida on the road in a game that will determine who the second-best team in the SEC is. The Commodores are just 2-10 at the O'Connell Center under Kevin Stallings, mirroring the .167 winning percentage that the team brought to Fayetteville earlier in the week. Like the Razorbacks, Florida is also undefeated at home this season. While history fails to smile on the 'Dores in this sense, it's worth noting that the team's last two trips to Gainesville ended with a win and a controversial overtime loss (John Jenkins was FOULED, dammit).
The Gators are in the midst of a hot streak, winning five in a row with quality wins over Mississippi and Mississippi State. Like the Commodores, Florida has two players currently slated to be picked in the first round of the NBA Draft by draftexpress.com. Bradley Beal and Patric Young, a freshman and sophomore, respectively, have led the Gators back to prominence despite losing SEC Player of the Year Chandler Parsons to graduation this season.
Florida has used efficient scoring and a strong three-point attack to score in bunches on their way to a 17-4 record. However, they've shown vulnerability in losses to Rutgers and Tennessee this season. The Gators are a young team who match up well with the Commodores talent-wise, but are overmatched in terms of experience. Whether or not Vandy can exploit that mismatch is a major question.
Florida (17-4, #12 in the AP rankings, #11 in the Pomeroy Rankings)
Tennessee's upset win back in January looked like it would be a statement for the Volunteers. UT's defense came together to hold Florida to just 56 points and the team didn't even have freshman big man Jarnell Stokes in the game. Defensive pressure kept Florida from putting up a fight as the Vols maintained a double-digit lead throughout the second half. Unfortunately for Tennesse, they've gone 2-5 since that win. The Gators are 5-0 over the same span.
Key to Destruction: Closing out on Florida's shots. Tennessee was liberal with their help defense, committing hard to make sure that the Gators got off as few open shots as possible. While this opened up the glass and allowed Florida to pull down 14 offensive rebounds, it was also instrumental in holding UF to just 35.7 percent shooting. Florida got the extra possessions they were playing for (56 shots compared to UT's 49), but were unable to do much with them thanks to Cuonzo Martin's high-pressure system.
Keys to the Game:
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Force Florida's bench to beat you. The Gator bench is loaded with talented but unproven players - including one-time Vandy target Casey Prather. Against Tennessee they only attempted eight of the team's 56 shots. They didn't connect on a single one.The Gators have a very strong starting five with Bradley Beal, Patric Young, Kenny Boynton, Erving Walker, and Erik Murphy. However, the drop off to their bench is significant outside of Mike Rosario. Coach Kevin Stallings will have to measure his substitutions to take advantage of Vanderbilt's bench. If the Gators have to turn to the pine for reinforcements often, the Commodores will have an advantage in Gainesville.
- Secure your damn rebounds. If you drank every time a defensive rebound caromed off a Vanderbilt player's hands and back into Arkansas's possession on Tuesday, you would either be dead or Andre the Giant. The Razorbacks created a slew of second chances off of the tips and bobbles of Vandy's big men. Florida, who has the size to match up well with the 'Dores behind Young and Murphy, showed that they can exploit this against Tennessee. The Gators pulled down 14 offensive boards against a UT squad that was often out of position thanks to their defense. If Vanderbilt can't defend effectively AND fail to box out and grab rebounds off of Florida misses it will be a long day for Commodore fans.
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Ignore statistics, history - and play focused. You can't help but wonder if history and superstition played a role in Tuesday's loss to Arkansas, where Vandy seemed to panic when the 'Hogs made a run and seemed content to take on the crowd rather than the Razorbacks. This is going to play a role in Saturday's game as well. The closest any team has gotten to beating Florida in the O-Dome is an eight-point loss from Arizona back in December. Yes, that is discouraging as all hell.Vanderbilt will have to ignore history and the crowd to play their own game in Gainesville. That means no rushed threes to show up Kenny Boynton. It means no stupid turnovers from stepping on the baseline. Basically, it means playing like the more experienced team. Vanderbilt's core is made up of five seniors and a junior. If they make mental mistakes normally reserved for a freshman-laden team, then they won't have a chance in Gator Country.
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A loss here puts us in bubble world
No question on that in my mind. It’s a must win.
An L doesn't put us on the bubble.
We are comfortably in every projection right now. But an L would put us pretty far out for the SEC title.
We just can’t let Florida get comfortable on offense. They are going to hit some threes because that’s what they do. We can’t allow a slew of them like against State and Arkansas.
I don't want us on the bubble
But I disagree. The people that vote and select tournament teams are all too familiar w/ Vanderbilt now. Standing at 16-7 isn’t a great record and I think a loss puts us on a solid track to 7-9 or 8-8 in the SEC and on the bubble.
Maybe not just the one game but it could be devastating for this team.
Home court is nothing special this year, we could and may lose to UF & UK at home. At UK is a challenge and the game in Knoxville won’t be easy either. And at the Tad Pad could very well be an L. That’s 8 losses right there and we still would have to hold serve at UGA (which we should).
I don’t want to be negative but seeing that much promise just vanish away this season puts the basketball team in the “same old Vanderbilt” bracket. I for one want to see Stallings go. It may not get better right away but I think VCDW could find a promising upcoming coach that could bring energy back into Memorial.
I don’t think this is a must-win for the tournament. For a good seed, maybe. I do think this is a much needed win if we are going to compete with Florida and Mississippi State for the top of the SEC, especially since we play UF and UK and UT twice, while Miss St only plays those teams once. At least UF must go to Bud Walton later this month rather than playing them at home as UK did. Arkansas could potentially go undefeated at home this season, which would be interesting. Arkansas may be a team on the bubble. Alabama, I think, is on the bubble, or at least sliding close. They need to put together a winning SEC record (which is possible given their remaining schedule) to get a bid. I’m not sure what to think of Ole Miss…
Tomorrow we will be tested by the press and 3-point shooting again.
I think this is only a must-win game if you’re still harboring hopes of a 3 seed somehow. Realistically – this is a team that beat us three times last year, we never seem to get over in Gainesville, and while they’re probably more beatable now than they’ve been in some time it’ll still take our A game to win through. It’s not time to panic if we lose this one – but if we get absolutely blown out of the gym, it might be.
But Jeff Taylor’s remarks yesterday seem to indicate that the team knows what time it is and how important this one is. I’m going to go out on a limb and say we get A-game effort tomorrow, irrespective of the outcome. And as it stands right now, for me that’s a win no matter the scoreboard results.
"Well, if that ain't a show, I'll kiss your ass." - Gov. Jim Folsom Sr. (D-AL), 1948-52
Not sure Vandy has the mental fortitude to win this game. They completely collapsed against Mississippi State at home and wilted at Arkansas, whereas Florida showed extreme toughness in winning at Mississippi and handled Mississippi State at home. Vandy may have more regular season pressure than the Gators, but last year’s tournament run has made even Erik Murphy, Patric Young, Will Yeguete and Scottie Wilbekin that much more pressure-tested.
ok
Live every week like it's Shark Week.
by Harbinger of Joy on Feb 3, 2012 6:48 PM EST up reply actions
Indeed, but Florida’s single collapse (Rutgers) was more than a month ago. Since then, they’ve vastly improved.
you're a homer
but that’s not an insult, at least not coming from me.
How so?
What other games did Florida collapse in? Losses to Ohio State and Syracuse are barely even worth mentioning, and we just came out flat against Tennessee. No excuses, but an 11 AM road start isn’t exactly a favorable situation.
by Obi_Ugochukwu on Feb 4, 2012 4:56 PM EST up reply actions
CBS
As a heads up, CBS is providing regional coverage of this game. If you live in Big East territory, the game being televised is Notre Dame at Marquette. Therefore, get thee to a sports bar, or if you are like myself, Dork out in front of the computer. Honestly, I think this sucks.
So where will it be on CBS
and is it going to be on ESPN3?
by foreverhopeful on Feb 3, 2012 5:28 PM EST up reply actions
CBS Sports.Com only
from the research I have done, i believe you are correct. No ESPN3. No ESPN Fullcourt. Anyone living from Chicago to Boston to NYC will be watching Big East. Personally, my oldest is just starting to get into Vanderbilt basketball and he is too young to watch 9pm games. This was a great opportunity for us to watch together. We can see it on the computer, but not the same at all. As i said before, this totally sucks.
Those 9pm games are too late for almost anyone. Maybe Fla’s late game last night will have them tired.
Reposted from Stallings Thread, But I wanted someone to see it
I wrote a lot and then realized the thread was dead.
Why we should fire Stallings after the year, barring a miracle run
I do understand the argument that Jason has made again and again. By any historical standard, Vandy basketball is in a golden age. During the VBK years, which I remember well, we used to wonder if we’d make the NIT rather than what seed we’d get in the NCAAs. A bad coaching change could easily bring us back to that.
Here are two reasons that I haven’t much seen addressed all that much for why should make the move anyway.
First, I think Stallings has burned out. I certainly cannot prove this in any quantifiable way but I think we’re now coasting on the last embers of an younger, better Stallings and our years of making the tournament nearly every year will end this year, with five out of six. Next year we will be wondering if we’ll make the NIT.
I don’t claim he’s a terrible coach or that he’ll never be successful again. A couple of years as an analyst and a fresh job — or maybe just the fresh job — may well make a new man out of him and give him the sort of success that will have us wishing we’d kept him. But I don’t think he’d have had that success here.
Second, I do not agree with those folks who say that Vandy isn’t a good enough job to land and retain a truly world class coach. Aside from a few bball royalty schools — UNC, Kentucky, Kansas and maybe UCLA — I think all big division schools are more or less even. Schools like Syracuse and UConn that are great every year for decades succeed not because of size or fan base but because they were smart enough to sign someone world class and keep him there.
On the other hand, basketball powerhouses that loose great coaches go to basketball also rans fast. Most of you guys are not old enough to remember how good teams like Arizona and Seton Hall and Georgetown were every single year. Even UCLA has sucked consistently the instant they lost a first rate coach and replaced him with a second-rate one.
In other words, I believe, had Jim Boeheim come to Vandy all those years ago, then all those tourney wins would be ours. (That’s why I don’t list Duke among the royalty. Duke has no advantage over anyone, except the fact that it has been helmed for three decades by the best coach in college history.)
But what about the private school lack of fan base and high academic standards? The first hurts us, but not as much as you think. Only the biggest public schools, in parts of the country that like college sports, have fan bases. Texas does. But if you really think anyone in Connecticut cares about UConn, you’re kidding yourself. Hell, most Big East teams play in parts of the country where no one gets worked up about college sports.
As for the academic standards, I think that helps put us just slightly above (not slightly below) nearly all the other schools in this largely flat college universe that I have mentioned. There are hundreds of big schools with low academic standards but only two or three places to go for bright kids who are not so unbelievably good that they’re shoo-ins for the NBA. It’s a smaller pool of kids, to be sure, but it’s a much much smaller pool of schools. Most of them won’t have Duke as an option, which brings it down to us or Stanford, really. Northwestern has never had a basketball program. Wake Forest is a far worse school and so small that you really need to want a small school (and yet, to get back to my earlier point, it was a perennial power when it had a great coach). What else is there? Emory? Rice?
The notion that some have peddled above that NC State is an inherently better position strikes me as absurd. What can you possibly say to make a kid want to come to NC State?
Of course getting and keeping a world class coach isn’t easy. But if the school employs the best talent spotters AND is willing to fire people who aren’t cutting it after two years on the job rather than keeping them around for five, we’ll eventually get our Jim Calhoun or Lute Olsen.
I think it’s at least worth a shot. Being almost good actually is worse than being really bad. Right now, the team gives me more misery than pleasure. During the VBK years, I just averted my eyes and thought nothing about them.
North Carolina, Duke, UCLA all are elite basketball programs and also top 25 schools, so I don’t know where this academic thing is coming from. Stanford/UCLA/USC are elite academic institutions and are 1/2/3 (not exactly in that order) in number of NCAA titles won all-time, and Stanford has been a No. 1 seed in the tournament in the past decade, and no need to tell you of UCLA’s history.
It’s not academics, Vanderbilt just hasn’t been lucky in coaching hires or something of the sort. It could happen one day.
by Obi_Ugochukwu on Feb 3, 2012 9:11 PM EST up reply actions
Re:
“On the other hand, basketball powerhouses that loose great coaches go to basketball also rans fast. Most of you guys are not old enough to remember how good teams like Arizona and Seton Hall and Georgetown were every single year. "
Oh, and by the by, Arizona went to the Elite Eight last year and Georgetown went to a Final Four in 2007 and are in the top 15 now, so they’re still good and their success wasn’t limited to one coach. Instead, the seeds were planted by a coach and then carried on.
by Obi_Ugochukwu on Feb 3, 2012 9:17 PM EST up reply actions
I think we agree more than you think we agree
A. I agree that academics quasi help us. Because for anyone attracted to academics we’re a much better school than UCLA or USC or, for that matter, UNC (though UNC is such a basketball elite that it’s not legit competition for us). The other schools that are serious competition for us in recruiting kids who want to go to a really good school, ones that I stupidly forgot to mention in my initial list, are Notre Dame and Georgetown.
B. Yes, Arizona and Georgetown are quasi-back, but it wasn’t a seed that carried on. Both of them went from greatness to terribleness and then sort of came back when they got better coaches. And neither is back to anything like the degree that they were there for the simple reason that neither has a coach as good as the ones who made them great. Arizona is unranked, for God’s sake, which during the Lute Olsen years would have been as weird as Kansas being unranked. Had we been having this debate 20 years ago, you’d have said that both were truly elite, like UNC and Kentucky and that they were always going to be in the top 15, not because of individuals but because of inherent institutional advantages. But they haven’t been able to do it except when they’ve had coaches.
Besides, the success of Georgetown shows the potential for us. Or how about the perennial power of Wake Forest when it had a great coach? Both small schools (tiny in Wake’s case) going deep in the tourney year after year.
by Andrew D. Smith on Feb 4, 2012 11:59 AM EST up reply actions
A. Uhhhh…OK. You seriously think Vanderbilt is a “much” better academic institution than UCLA, USC and UNC? Seriously? In the most recent US News rankings, Vanderbilt is #17. USC is #23, and UCLA is #25. UNC is #29. Six spots and even eight spots is BARELY a difference. They’re absolutely in the same academic class as Vanderbilt. Vanderbilt is a WONDERFUL academic institution, but those other schools are most definitely on VU’s level.
B. “Neither is back to anything like the degree that they were…”
That’s where you lose your credibility. An Elite Eight last year for Arizona and a Final Four for Georgetown five years ago and a current #14 national ranking for the latter and No. 1 recruiting class for the former isn’t “back”? Then what IS? You’ve seriously got to be pulling my leg here, because I know fans at Vanderbilt (or any school for that matter) would KILL to go to a Final Four/Elite Eight and have rankings that lofty and a recruiting class that good.
I swear, you’d have told me UNC wasn’t elite because they were unranked and went to the NIT two years ago. Arizona made the NCAA tournament for 20+ straight years, the streak ended a few years ago, and then it started right back up again.
by Obi_Ugochukwu on Feb 4, 2012 5:04 PM EST up reply actions
Academics
Besides the fact that US News is not the defining word on academic standing, Vanderbilt is much better overall academically than UCLA, USC, or NC. Of course the top students at any of the schools would do fine at the others, but the fact is that the bottom half of the classes at the state schools is not particularly strong whereas the entire Vanderbilt class is. USC is a strong private school, but not at Vanderbilt level.
by foreverhopeful on Feb 4, 2012 6:02 PM EST up reply actions
Right...
I guess we’ll just have to go with your completely unbiased opinion, then, instead of referring to any type of 3rd party sources…
by Obi_Ugochukwu on Feb 5, 2012 11:01 AM EST up reply actions

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