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How our defense has improved from last season

With the defensive domination of Auburn, we are starting to see more consistent defensive performances from the team now that Festus has gotten his defensive timing down. It is also very clear that this team is a better defense than the one we saw at the end of last season, where almost every game was close due to our overall inability to consistently stop anybody.

Last season, while we allowed poor percentages from both inside and outside the arc and did a very good job of not putting the opposition on the foul line, our adjusted defensive efficiency was near the bottom of the teams that made the tournament. The reason for this seeming contradiction was due to a couple of reasons – we almost never created any turnovers and were an average defensive rebounding team. On average we stole the ball on 7.5% of defensive possessions and created turnovers on just 17.5% of them. While this is generally a product of the defensive style that CKS employs (a non-gambling man defense that is meant to contest shots as opposed to create turnovers), our opponent's turnovers seemed to hit bottom last season. In addition, we were unable to corral enough of our opponents misses, leading to several frustrating possessions where the opposition got multiple shots at the basket.

Star-divide

The turnover problem was systemic, as no full time (played at least 30 games) player had a steal rate above 2% - we just didn't gamble at all on defense. Our problems on the boards were two-fold – our bench rebounding was pretty poor and Festus tended to focus on blocked shots, which meant that his defensive rebounding suffered - it wasn't catastrophic, but we struggled at times against tough offensive rebounding teams.

This season, as we have played most of our games without an effective Festus we have seen a greater permissiveness on both sides of the arc, with our shot blocking and our ability to alter shots in the post being significantly reduced. However, our defensive efficiency has improved greatly despite an increase in effective shooting percentage by the opposition. This is due to our greatly increased ability to create turnovers and our improved work on the defensive glass. Our steal rate has improved by 3%, led largely by two players – Lance and Jeff. Both players have greatly improved their steal rates, and in Lance’s case it has nearly tripled. Brad and John have been better as well, and Kedren Johnson has been good off the bench. On the boards the largest improvement has come from Steve, who is fully recovered from a foot injury that severely limited him at the end of last season and from Festus, who has changed his approach to post defense, looking less to block shots and instead being satisfied with being a tall obstacle to shoot over, while staying in position to grab defensive boards.

The overall result of this is while teams are shooting better against us, they are getting a lot fewer shots at the basket. The good news is that we should see our opponents eFG% go down as Festus plays more minutes – our defense is getting better and has the potential of actually being very good. This becomes more true as Dai-Jon Parker improves offensively to the point where CKS can afford to play him for more than token minutes. Going into this season the largest obstacle from improving over last season was our defense. It now appears that we will largely be able to overcome that obstacle.

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Great statistical analysis, as usual

I made a couple changes to make it look better on the main page, hope you don’t mind.

by Christian D'Andrea on Jan 8, 2012 1:16 PM EST reply actions  

Not at all.

I’ve had trouble with the editor eating my work before so I’ve taken to typing my thoughts on Word and copying and pasting. I’m not sure why it isn’t working like it used to.

by Jason Fukuda on Jan 8, 2012 2:47 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah, I've had the same problems.

Especially recently. The Auburn recap and the recruiting sidebars got eaten up and destroyed by faulty drafts. Hopefully it’s just a temporary glitch.

by Christian D'Andrea on Jan 8, 2012 4:34 PM EST up reply actions  

DJP is supposedly a defensive beast...

…if he can get meaningful minutes, that’ll be a big help. Hope the defense stands up on Tuesday…

"Well, if that ain't a show, I'll kiss your ass." - Gov. Jim Folsom Sr. (D-AL), 1948-52

by VandyImport on Jan 8, 2012 2:36 PM EST reply actions  

His strength...

is staying in front of the opposition off the dribble – you just don’t see guys drive by him off the bounce. He also has the ability to really pressure the ballhandler as we saw in the Marquette game – he has fantastic defensive athleticism – great foot quickness, fantastic leaping ability and good strength. We haven’t seen him gamble much at all but when he starts to get the speed of the game I believe he will become adept at picking up steals. But right now he provides on defense everything that Jenkins and Tinsley do not and is good enough at defending bigger players that we’ve been using him to spell Taylor for short periods of time as well. Parker is an example of CKS’ willingness to play someone who is clearly excellent on defense despite their offensive limitations. I don’t know how he will improve on offense except to say that he doesn’t seem to be as poor a shooter as he’s shown so far.

by Jason Fukuda on Jan 8, 2012 3:08 PM EST up reply actions  

The best thing about freshmen is that they become sophs.

(offer not applicable at University of Kentucky)

"Well, if that ain't a show, I'll kiss your ass." - Gov. Jim Folsom Sr. (D-AL), 1948-52

by VandyImport on Jan 8, 2012 10:48 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

big enough sample?

Are we jumping the gun here? “Now that fes has his defensive timing down”; how many games has that been? Fes is great but we also played the worst SEC team hands down. And if the answer is three games, what happened against miami? Sure the freshman was lights out but they are a defensive-focused team with four wins on the season. Let’s withhold judgement until we play florida and then assess our defense. In the meantime, make some damn free throws!

by vanalyst on Jan 8, 2012 6:11 PM EST via mobile reply actions  

What does the Miami game have to do with Fes?

He certainly wasn’t guarding Sullivan, but was responsible for the post defense, which was pretty fantastic in that game. Miami scored 62 points, and 24 came from Sullivan’s 8 threes. Otherwise Miami probably ends up with around 50 points. But you can clearly see from how he is playing that Festus is doing a very good job with his positioning and timing (as well as discretion) of his blocks, and is rebounding the ball far better than he did last season on the defensive end. The idea that Festus is really close to where we want him to be on defense doesn’t really require statistic, does it? I’m assuming that you’ve watched the games – do you disagree?

We don’t play Florida until February – are you saying that we cannot observe how we are playing defense until then? Last season we were pretty uniformly bad at the end of the season, giving up a lot of points to mediocre to bad teams that were worse than this year’s Auburn – we didn’t come anywhere near to this level of defense against anybody last season, and certainly didn’t come anywhere close to the defensive job we did against Marquette.

by Jason Fukuda on Jan 8, 2012 7:04 PM EST up reply actions  

Miami / MS State

Ok, Julian Mavunga drew a double team all night and was 7/11 from the field with 11 boards. That’s why I brought up Miami.

We won’t wait until Florida to judge our entire defense. But, don’t judge in the next few games. If we give up 65 points to SC, GA, or even Bama, then you will need to analyze our performance again. These teams are in the bottom half of the league (and nation) in offense (64.3, 62.9, 67.6 ppg). Mississippi State should give us a good test (75.6 ppg). My point is that we have a long road to go to re-earn that national ranking and defense is going to lead us there. We should ride a 12 game win streak into Florida and that doesn’t happen if our defense doesn’t bail out a bad shooting night.

by vanalyst on Jan 8, 2012 10:46 PM EST up reply actions  

And that

was his low point total for the season to go along with a season high 6 turnovers. His season averages are 20 and 11, and he scored 26 against Cincy with 12 boards (11-16 shooting) and 20 against OSU with 10 boards (8-14 shooting) – the kid is a stud and we did an excellent job stymying him to the point where it took a miracle game by Sullivan to keep it close.

I would say that past is not prologue – I cannot predict the future, but what I am seeing right now is very good defense. There could always be an inconsistent effort, but I’m basing this on what I am seeing right now, which is far above anything I’ve seen over the last several seasons. I didn’t say that we would continue to play at this level, but that we definitely have the potential to do so, which isn’t something that could be said about last year’s team once Andre went down.

by Jason Fukuda on Jan 8, 2012 11:45 PM EST up reply actions  

On Free Throws

It is frustrating, but a large reason why we shot it poorly was because of who shot it and how many shots each of those players took. Basically, five different players shot FT’s, none more than 5 shots, and none of our top four FT shooters had any attempts. Sample size and all.

On the season, it is most likely that what we are seeing is due to Festus not being on the floor so much. Because he drew so many fouls last season that we were in the bonus pretty early, and non-shooting fouls on Brad or John resulted in a lot of FT’s. Neither are shooting FT’s as often this season. Then you have three guys shooting a bit worse than they normally would, and two of them are taking a lot of foul shots relative to the rest of the team. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a correction through the rest of the season.

by Jason Fukuda on Jan 8, 2012 7:27 PM EST up reply actions  

I hope so, but let's not forget the numbers

I like your point about Fes drawing fouls. Getting into the bonus earlier each half is something that should become a trend in the second half of the year.

Let’s not discard the numbers in this discussion. Jenkins is shooting 80% on the year so far when last year he was 89.4% from the line. That means he must make 40 in a row or 49 of his next 50 to get back to 89.4% this season. We could do this with just about everyone on the team but his numbers are most dramatic due to his accuracy last year.

by vanalyst on Jan 8, 2012 11:03 PM EST up reply actions  

But Jenkins isn't the issue is he?

Jenkins hitting 80% of his FT’s is not a problem – not as great at 90%, but overall we won’t lose any sleep over it. Jeff and Lance getting to around 70% is a big deal, as it would punish teams for fouling them, which will continue to occur with decent frequency. The main thing is that our guards aren’t really guys who will get fouled a lot in the act of shooting, so a lot of their foul shots occur in the bonus. FT shooting rates tend to be pretty stable – good FT shooters don’t become bad overnight just as poor FT shooters generally don’t become much better over the course of several seasons.

by Jason Fukuda on Jan 8, 2012 11:51 PM EST up reply actions  

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