The SEC's Worst Losses: Auburn
by Christian D'Andrea on Jan 5, 2012 12:14 PM EST
in Vanderbilt Commodores Basketball
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PrintVanderbilt kicks off conference play this weekend, and that means the return of The SEC's Worst Losses, AoG's game preview series that breaks down Commodore opponents by virtue of the teams that have beaten them this season. On Saturday, John Jenkins and company will host a 10-4 Auburn team that has feasted on a weak early schedule season but ranks just 177th in Ken Pomeroy's rankings. The Tigers have beaten only one BCS conference team (South Florida) and have big wins over luminaries like Bethune-Cookman, North Florida, Nicholls State, and Arkansas Pine-Bluff.
The Commodores, on the other hand, have four wins over BCS teams sandwiching some embarrassing losses to Cleveland State and Indiana State - both at home. Vanderbilt's struggles in 2011 have been well publicized. The preseason's seventh-ranked team in the country has lost what was once one of the biggest home court advantages in college sports, falling three times this season at Memorial Gym. More distressingly, the team has fallen into a pattern where they are unable to score over the final minutes of close games - something that doomed them against ISU, Xavier, and Louisville. Off-the-ball movement stops, Commodore leads dissipate, and fans everywhere are forced to wonder what happened to a team that was a legitimate Final Four pick just months earlier.
Vandy may have turned a corner at the end of 2011, when they blasted Marquette on the road to pick up their biggest win of the season. The 'Dores were able to jump out to a 35-6 lead in the first half despite center Festus Ezeli playing at 80 percent due to knee problems and an off night by scoring leader Jenkins. Unfortunately, a lackluster return performance in their next game against Miami (OH) may have tempered expectations heading into league play.
Can Auburn earn a statement-making road win against the rebounding Commodores? Their recent history suggests not. They've only beaten two teams with winning records this season (USF and Hawaii) and the aggregate record of the team's they've won against is 46-94 (.328 win pct). Conversely, Vanderbilt's wins have come over teams that are 78-66 (.542). Let's take a look at just what was the Tigers' worst loss in the early season so far.
Auburn (10-4, unranked, #177 in the Pomeroy Rankings)
Other Losses: vs. Long Beach State, at Seton Hall, at Florida State
Auburn's approach to nonconference scheduling was solid for a team with low expectations. The Tigers' loaded their schedule up with cupcake teams and threw a few moderate challenges into the mix to prepare the team for SEC play. Games on the east coast gave the team the chance to test themselves against a pair of possible NCAA Tournament teams (Seton Hall, Florida State), while matchups against some of the southeast's lesser squads helped Auburn get to 10 wins two months earlier than they did in 2010-2011.
However, the biggest lowlight of their season so far has been a loss to UTEP in the consolation round of the Diamond Head Classic. The Tigers fell 83-76 on Christmas day to leave the Honolulu tournament 0-2. The Miners shot 53.1 percent from the field and scored 22 points from the free throw line in a controlling win.
Key to Destruction: Control the paint. Like Marquette, Auburn relies on a guard-heavy lineup that features just one true big man. Rob Chubb is the team's 6'10" center, but he's more of a power forward and doesn't have great rebounding skills. UTEP was able to keep him away from the basket and force him into tough shots, leading to an 0-6 night from the field and just three rebounds in 28 minutes from Chubb. The junior is the team's third-leading scorer at 10.3 points per game, and limiting his effectiveness played a big role in UTEP's upset.
Meanwhile, El Paso center John Bohanon, 6'10 and just 210 lbs, was able to burn Chubb and the Tiger frontcourt for a career-high 20 points on just 9 shots. Bohanon drove the Miner offense with efficient scoring and his ability to get to the free throw line. He also pulled down nine rebounds - including five on the offensive glass.
Vanderbilt should be up to the task here. Festus Ezeli is still fighting off injury, but he's got the size and strength to be a dominant force against Auburn even if he's gimpy. If Ezeli can't go, Steve Tchiengang has the bulk and defensive chops to lock down the paint. Auburn's weak post defense should be a big boost for the struggling Cameroonian, and could be just what he needs to break out of his recent slump.
Keys to the Game:
- Get to the line. UTEP earned 29 free throws against the Tigers - nine more attempts than Auburn has allowed on average this season. The Miners did damage there as well, hitting 22 of them and using these opportunities to grind down Auburn each time a comeback seemed to be in the works. Vanderbilt is averaging a little over 20 free throws per game - but if they can turn up the offensive intensity and get into the lane, they'll be able to draw plenty of contact against a team that is smaller and less athletic than the Commodores.
- Force Auburn's cold shooters to shoot. The Tigers have some strong marksmen on their roster. Kenny Gabriel, Frankie Sullivan, and Varez Ward are all averaging a three-pointer per game or better. However, Sullivan and Ward went cold against a UTEP team that challenged them to make shots, similar to how Vanderbilt held Marquette to a terrible shooting night a week earlier. The Tigers jacked up 21 threes in the game and made just seven, helping to derail rallies and allow the Miners to hold their lead. If Vanderbilt can identify Auburn's cold shooters early and force them to step up in order to generate offense, they'll be able to slump towards the basket, defend drives, and limit the Tigers' efficiency.
- Move the ball around the perimeter, kick it out for open threes. UTEP shot 9-13 from long range in their win. Seven of these threes were assisted. The Miners were able to move the ball effectively and create open looks from beyond the arc thanks to patience and strong court vision from all positions. Vanderbilt has the talent to replicate this, thanks to some deadly three-point shooters and a core of solid passers ranging from Brad Tinsley to Lance Goulbourne. The Commodores will have to be crisp with their passing, but Auburn has shown that they can get sloppy on the perimeter and fail to adjust after double-team scenarios. This is a weakness that Vandy should be able to exploit.
UTEP won in Hawaii thanks to solid play across the court. While Bohanon was getting it done in the paint, a smaller lineup was shooting efficiently from long range and getting to the free throw line to extend their lead. While Auburn was able to put up 76 points, the Miners capitalized on a Tiger defense that has allowed over 80 points in three of their four losses. This is a good sign for a Commodore team that could use an offensive spark after a mediocre game against Miami (OH). The Tigers may be the perfect team to open up SEC play for Vanderbilt - on paper, they look like a sort of poor man's Marquette - but if they don't take Auburn seriously, it could be another frustrating day at Memorial Gym.
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They like to run a little bit
because they’re so bereft in the half court, which should benefit us. Also, at times Chubb seems like he cannot keep himself on the floor due to fouls.
Also, anybody notice Marquette last night? Georgetown shot 84% from inside the arc against them. Fraudulent defense becoming more apparent with every game they play against athletic competition.
Go Harder.
Lots of similarities to that Marquette team
which makes me hopeful. A spattering of guards who can score and some weak interior play. But they aren’t as athletic and lack the scoring punch of MU. It seems like this should be a great starting point for the SEC schedule for Vandy, but who the hell knows with this team.
by Christian D'Andrea on Jan 5, 2012 12:42 PM EST up reply actions
We should play well against them defensively.
By far my biggest gripe with this team has been the half-court offense, but the defense has honestly improved since the season started. I’ve seen them a coupla times, and their offense is basically “If we can’t get it to Chubb, Kenny Gabriel or Frankie Sullivan is gonna take a bad shot.”
And the always offensively challenged FSU got 1.21 PPP against them last night.
Go Harder.
And led 50-15 at the half...
I was really impressed with the team’s movement in the half court against Marquette – rather than coming and going in spurts, they sustained it relatively well in Milwaukee. The defense has been particularly surprising though, and as Jason Fukuda often mentions, they’re doing it without a full strength Festus. Stallings has done a good job of managing the balance between man and zone coverages and it’s paid dividends as the season wears on.
by Christian D'Andrea on Jan 5, 2012 12:55 PM EST up reply actions
Maybe I haven't mentioned it yet
But I think Marquette’s a fraud defensively. By far, the five most athletic teams they’ve played are Washington, LSU, us, Nova, and Georgetown. They got shredded by 4 of those teams, and still gave up 1.02 against LSU, even though they all turned had TO percentages in the 20s. I think that team is just far too aggressive defensively for how good they are. The only good team they’ve even played well against defensively is Wisconsin, against whom they’re vastly athletically superior to at almost every position.
We got a buncha just WIDE open looks against them and were able to burn them on backdoors and back picks VERY easily. They are just so undisciplined — after Georgetown quit turning the ball over they absolutely toasted them on shots inside the arc. Washington did the same thing.
The blueprint for beating our offense as the inferior team is to do an Indiana State: Send nobody to the offensive glass, make us play 5 on 5, sag, try and take away John off the curl and hope he shoots poorly (this is obviously different with Fez). I didn’t see the Miami game, but that was the first one where the pace was in the 60s and we didn’t struggle on offense (except for Bucknell, which might be the worst defensive team in the country). This still remains the biggest challenge for this team going forward.
Go Harder.
Well, Bucknell's not that bad
I was thinking Monmouth. I didn’t see the Bucknell game either — what was different about that one?
Go Harder.
Probably a few things
It was right after the Cleveland State loss, which might have sparked the team.
I think the team has a history of overlooking mid-majors, too. (Which is odd; I don’t think Stallings himself does, coming from Illinois State and all. And yet it seems to happen consistently.) But Bucknell has a very good reputation, especially after upsetting Arkansas and Kansas in the NCAA a few years ago. It’s a lot harder to overlook them or Davidson than Indiana State, who hasn’t done much since Larry Bird was there.
And frankly, the Bison are down this year. They’re 10-6 and haven’t pulled any of the upsets you’d expect.
Yup
Our offense has struggled this season compared to any of the last three seasons. But this was also the case last season whenever Festus got into foul trouble. We’ve become passable now without Festus on offense, to the point where there isn’t a huge difference between the possessions where he is in and where he is out. I imagine this will change once he gets his timing and hands back.
I thought that our major issue against Miami was in finishing the play. We executed very well to the point where we got a clean, close look at the rim, and flubbed many layups. Add to that Sullivan’s unconcious shooting and you have a game that is much closer than it felt – I never really felt that we were in danger of losing that game – Miami had to shoot as well as was humanly possible combined with us missing a lot of bunnies for it to be a single digit contest. But these things can very easily happen within a low possession game.
They miss Otule more than we miss Ezeli
Otule was the one player they had taller than 6’-8" and a decent defensive rebounder on a team that lacks defensive rebounding ability. He’s also their main shotblocking threat and is the only player who can alter shots. Without him they are a very short team. They rely on being able to turn over their opponents frequently because they have no height and (besides Gardner) no size. I expect them to get much better when Otule returns.
OOC schedule
CKS did a good job of scheduling teams that were poor matchups for us, which is why we ended up with four losses. We played against two high major teams that were very guard oriented and excellent and creating turnovers and a high mid that also had excellent guards. We also played a few mid-majors that played styles that we’ve had difficulty with in the past.
Hopefully this will serve us well as we enter conference play, especially against the non-UK and non-UF types of teams that we have more difficulty getting up for.
Agreed
The teams we lost to are just like bad and oh to recent memories of tournament losses. I’m hoping we can learn and grow from them for a successful SEC season and tourney run.
some thoughts
First, we should clearly win this game.
The defense, I think, is improving, and I would not rate it bad.
The offense is potent, but needs better inside scoring and we need to make lay-ups. We left 10 points at the rim against Miami.
The offense can be quite explosive, the key is not giving whatever we gain up when we inevitably cool off. We need defense (to prevent the opponent from cutting into our lead or creating a lead when the game is close), offensive rebounding (to get second chance points, which we sometimes seem to forget about), an inside game (which will be better when we have FE coming off the bench for ST), and free throws (which have been better lately).
I don’t see JJ and JT as the game winners for us as much as BT and LG. JJ and JT will generally have productive nights, but BT and LG are the X-factor.
The other ? will be the bench. I think KJ will be able to put in some quality time from the bench this season. He can give minutes for BT and run the point, or he can give minutes for JJ and move BT to the 2. I think DJP will eventually be very good, but right now he can’t be in the game to play the 2 as too much of the offense is built around a 2. Hopefully things will start to click for him soon. I also think RO will be able to provide quality minutes as the season goes on.
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