Basketball: Vanderbilt vs. Tennessee Preview -- The Periscope
by KingJamesIV on Jan 24, 2012 1:34 PM EST
in Vanderbilt Commodores Basketball
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PrintThe Tennessee Volunteers head west to Nashville to face the Vanderbilt Commodores. The Vols have had a pretty remarkable turnaround, thanks in large part to the addition of talented freshman Jarnell Stokes. Though Vanderbilt is the much stronger team on paper, it's hard to quantify exactly what these teams are right now, not to mention the fact that you're often better off tossing rankings and statistics out the window when sizing up rivalry games. I ran the numbers anyway, because THAT'S HOW I ROLL.
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Click through the jump for a breakdown of each team's opponents thus far and a closer look at their respective personnel.
Schedule Breakdown
To date, Vanderbilt has played 19 total games, 12 at home, 2 on neutral courts, and 5 on the road against an average KenPom rated opponent of 121.8. Tennessee has played 19 total games, 11 at home, 2 on neutral courts, and 6 on the road (1 being "semi-away"), against an average rated D-I opponent of 142.6. Based on their performances to date, Kenpom rates Vanderbilt to be the seventh most efficient offensive and fourth most efficient defensive team that the Volunteers will have played. Tennessee rates as the thirteenth most efficient offensive team and the fifth most efficient defensive team that the Commodores will have played. Keep in mind that these numbers do not account for players that have missed games.
Based on previous opponents offensive and defensive efficiencies, Tennessee most closely resembles Cleveland State. Vanderbilt most closely resembles Memphis. Neither of those are actually particularly good matches. They're just the closest of any previous opponent.
Statistical Breakdown
Looking solely at the tempo free statistics, Vanderbilt has a slight edge at the starting positions. Tennessee has a strong bench advantage. Keep in mind that the individual statistics are not adjusted for the strength of the opponents and the location of games.
Four Factors: Turnovers and offensive rebounding look to be draws, which could go either way depending on how the ball bounces. Vanderbilt's offense generates a signficantly larger number of free throw opportunities AND Tennessee tends to put teams on the line a lot more than Vanderbilt does. This could be a huge advantage if the refs give Vanderbilt the traditional home court advantage. This should be a point of emphasis for Coach Stallings. Vanderbilt also has an edge with regards to effective field goal percentage: the Commodores shoot it better than the Vols and they hold their opponents to lower marks than Tennessee does. Prediction: Vanderbilt wins all four categories.
Ken Pomeroy predicts a 69-59 Vanderbilt win in a game with a tempo of 64. He rates Vanderbilt's win percentage at 83%.
Traditional Statistics -- Tennessee Volunteers
Tipoff is scheduled for 1800 CT and the game will be available on ESPNU (as well as ESPN3 - ?). Our open gamethread will go live two hours before tipoff. Also, don't forget to head over to Stat-King to submit your predictions for the game.
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Matchups
Conzo’s UT is very different stylistically than Pearl’s UT was. We will no longer see a full court style trapping defense, and UT will not try to stop you on defense by turning you over. Even last seasons’ team, which wasn’t set up personnel wise to play a full court style were still well above average in turning opponents over. This year UT is very similar to our team last year in terms of TO’s – they don’t create many. They play more of a Big-10 style of defense, though their lack of front line size (up until the arrival of Stokes) limited the effectivenss of this strategy due to their giving up some offensive boards.
On offense they actually shoot the ball pretty well, but lack players who can get to the line, and play slow, a continuation of the slowdown of Pearl’s teams. UT will play a lot of guys – probably 10 or more guys despite the fact that they do not play particularly fast. Their front court is sized more like a D-Line – Maymon is 6-7, 265 and Stokes is 6-8, 250.
I think that we’ll start John on Golden, and have Taylor shadowing Tatum. It will be interesting to see how the post is played, probably Ezeli on Maymon and LG again with a difficult matchup against Stokes. Brad is going to have to remember to stay on McBee when he is behind the line, and can safely ignore him inside of it.
We actually have some favorable matchups here, but I doubt we will be able to get into any rhythm due to the style of play. I would gladly take any victory.
KenPom ...
can kinda be thrown out the window for both teams, as neither resembles their earlier season editions. Tennessee’s most drastic change – the addition of Stokes – happened very recently, whereas Festus Ezeli’s impact on Vanderbilt has happened over time.
No doubt Vanderbilt is the favorite, but 83% is too high …
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