Revisionist History: #15 Mississippi State 78, Vanderbilt 77 (OT) - Blown Leads, Overtime Losses, and Brad Tinsley
Vanderbilt took an 11 point lead into halftime against the 15th ranked Bulldogs Saturday night. Four minutes into the second half, they trailed by seven.
The Commodores battled back behind some clutch play to send this one into overtime, then countered with an undoubtedly un-clutch performance to snap a seven-game winning streak and post their first SEC loss of the season. Vanderbilt had three possessions to turn a 77-78 deficit into a game-clinching win, but failed in all three attempts. Brad Tinsley missed a three-pointer as the shot clock wore down, then took an ill-advised drive that ended with a shot that caromed off the front of the rim. Vandy got one more chance when Arnett Moultrie missed a free throw with 3.6 seconds left, but John Jenkins's desperation three was off the mark, clinching the los.
Tinsley's play cemented his status as the guy who wants the ball in his hands in the clutch, but also showcased why he's not ready to be a go-to guy. He's made big shots this season - particularly against Oregon State in the beginning of the season - and even hit a pressure-filled three minutes earlier to tie the game at 71-71. However, his drive to the basket with four seconds left was a showcase of this team's dysfunction in last-shot situations.
As point guard, Tinsley is the fulcrum that almost all plays rest on. When his teammates struggle to get open, the pressure rests on his shoulders to either A) thread a difficult pass to a covered player B) drive to the paint in order to draw a defender inside and create an open pass or C) create his own shot. Against Mississippi State, he chose the third option with John Jenkins and Jeffery Taylor on lockdown. This led to Tinsley driving into a double-team and putting up a contested shot that barely got above the level of the rim.
Credit here should go to Mississippi State. They did a great job of covering Vanderbilt's biggest offensive threats and sliding to shut down any passing lanes that Tinsley could have created with the drive. However, the ultimate failure here was pushing forward with a bad shot rather than resetting, regrouping, and using the team's final timeout.
Look, it's great that Tinsley is stepping up for a team that has been devoid of clutch players since Jermaine Beal left. Unfortunately, this hurt the team on Saturday night. With 16 seconds left on the clock and the ability to take the last shot of the game, Vanderbilt left their final timeout on the scoreboard, even after it became clear that they weren't going to be getting the look that they wanted. Instead, Kevin Stallings bet hard on Tinsley, gambling that his senior point guard could make something of the situation. His ill-advised drive was met quickly by defenders in the paint, and Vanderbilt lost their sixth straight overtime game.
It was a disappointing result that validated every Vandy fan's concerns about this team's ability to protect leads. Vanderbilt has three losses against ranked teams this season. All three games featured double-digit Commodore leads in the second half. Those three missed opportunities will weigh heavily against the 'Dores when the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee puts together their seedings in March. Even if they finish the season strongly, they'll still have given every pundit in the country enough ammunition to pick against them once the postseason rolls around.
Two other things we learned from Vanderbilt/Mississippi State are after the jump...
Festus Ezeli still isn't there...yet. Ezeli put together his biggest stat line of the season in the overtime loss: 12 points, 14 rebounds, and five blocks. However, it's clear that he still hasn't adjusted to the offensive flow of the game and is even having trouble finishing at the basket - where he's usually a beast. Ezeli looked out of his element in the second half - particularly during MSU's 20-2 run - and forced jumpers rather than sticking to his usual program under the rim.
That comfort will come, and it's important to note that the coaching staff continues to suggest that the big Nigerian is still playing at about 75-80 percent of his capacity. On Saturday, his energies were more devoted to the defensive end and dealing with Renardo Sidney's 300-pounds-of-pudding attack. Ezeli did well in that regard, limiting "Thudbutt" to nine points and just one rebound. He showed that this team can lean on him defensively - but he's not ready for double-digit shot attempts just yet.
Vanderbilt: 6-1 on the road, 8-4 at Memorial Gym. The country's best home court advantage is fading in 2011-2012. Vandy has now lost to Cleveland State, Indiana State, Xavier, and Mississippi State on their own floor. This gets even more surprising when you factor in this team's veteran leadership and their familiarity with Ingraham Court, baseline coaching, and the Memorial Maniacs.
So what's different in 2012? It's tough to tell. Whatever it is, it's clear that Memorial Gym has lost a piece of its intimidation factor this season.
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Lance Goulbourne is now shooting over 39 percent from 3pt range. If he gets .6 percent better, Vandy will have five players shooting better than 40% from three this season.
by Christian D'Andrea on Jan 22, 2012 1:28 PM EST reply actions
Most Disappointing Season Ever
Only b/c of all the hype and the top 10 ranking. We probably deserve to still get in the top 25 come tomorrow but I doubt we do. It’s just so disappointing after they all came back, said they had something to prove, etc, etc.
I’m not really that down b/c State is a great team and they really, really needed that to not fall to 2-3 and into oblivion. It just hurts b/c their schedule is much weaker since this is still an east/west schedule but the rankings are straight 1-12.
Why does CKS hate timeouts?
Agree 100% with everything in the original post. I’d only add that I believe Stallings’ persistent refusal to use timeouts to stem momentum swings was a large contributing factor yesterday. As is his pattern, he let an 11 point lead get to 2 before grudgingly using a timeout. Granted it all happened very quickly but you could feel it in the gym that State was determined and effective as soon as the half began and we were a bit staggered by them in short order. He should have called time out after their first couple baskets to get the guys’ attention. By the time they cut it to 2 the damage was done, State was confident and it was a dogfight.
by WestEndDynamite on Jan 22, 2012 3:18 PM EST reply actions
Did it matter?
He calls a TO, and MSU proceeds to score on their next five possessions, outscoring us 11-2. It was only after the media timeout that we began to stem the tide.
It always amuses me how people think that the TO is some sort of magical get-out-of jail free card. Yet we saw how many TO’s called by the opposition during our 8 game run – 10? 15? And I’d say that the vast majority did nothing to the overall momentum of the game – we were playing well and the stoppages in play didn’t really have anything to do with it.
Our problem is that we came out of the locker room completeliy in cruise control for whatever reason, depsite the game being only half done and the lead being a decent but hardly insumountable one. The fact that it continued following the timeout shows a more serious issue than could have been solved by a simple TO.
by Jason Fukuda on Jan 22, 2012 7:27 PM EST up reply actions
We'll never know if it matered...
Because by the time the time out came the game had totally shifted. I’m not naive enough to think that a time out is a magic bullet, though you insinuated that I am. However, I feel confident that if you look back at games where we give up big leads with one big run by the opposition, you’ll see that Stallings never never uses time outs until the lead is gone or very nearly so. You may be ok with letting the kids play through turning a double digit lead into a 2 point game or a deficit. I’d prefer that my coach take a more active role in at least trying to stop a game changing run. BTW, I do agree we came out in cruise control and yes, that’s a big problem.
by WestEndDynamite on Jan 22, 2012 7:50 PM EST up reply actions
The problem is...
It isn’t like we gave up a 20 point lead. He called a timeout after three offensive possessions. You seem to be arguing that had he called a TO after one or two possessions that we would have been o.k., despite the fact that the run continued for several possessions after the TO.
Basically, if we’ve got a three or four possession lead (7-12 points), if you call a TO anytime a team has two good possessions in a row, then you are treating your team with a very tight leash. Two possession swings feel bad because they are essentially mini runs of 4-6 points, but they happen so frequently that you very easily run the risk of running out of TO’s before the end of the game.
The thing is, it is easy to look at the game in hindsight and pick which run was critical and say that the coach should have called a TO at some point just prior to where he actually did call a TO, but typically there are several similar such points where a team gets going for a couple possessions while we go cold, and the kids play through it just fine. Nobody comments on those points, just as nobody comments on the TO’s that have no effect on the run at all.
But given that the title of your post was “why does CKS hate timeouts” when he in fact did call a TO that had no noticable effect is why I was led to believe that you thought it had more power than it actually appears to have.
by Jason Fukuda on Jan 22, 2012 8:48 PM EST up reply actions
I was out of town yesterday
So I DVR’d the game. I added 15 extra minutes onto the end of the recording because, hey, you just never know. I successfully got back today without knowing the outcome, plopped down, and watched for 2 hours and 15 minutes. Guess where it ended? With 2.8 seconds left in OT and us about to inbound the ball.
No worries, I’ll just fire up the ’3 and catch the end on replay. Internet Explorer freezes. So restart…Internet Explorer freezes. Then my gf steals my computer for 30 minutes. Then I fire up Google Chrome, fast forward to the end, and watch Jenkins freak out a bit on a good look.
Needless to say, I'm so glad I waited...
I like Tennessee and Vanderbilt. There aren't many like me, and they're probably better off for it.
I detect a hint of sarcasm font in your last statement…
I did the same thing, but luckily I went for an extra 30 minutes. Of course, It is a good thing I waited until my kids were asleep before watching the game, because over the course of the game I wove a tapestry of obscenity that is still hanging in the atmosphere above the Savannah river. (anybody get that movie reference?)
by Pope Vanderbilt on Jan 23, 2012 10:37 AM EST up reply actions
A Christmas Story
Classic.
I like Tennessee and Vanderbilt. There aren't many like me, and they're probably better off for it.
Home Record
I’ve been a Vanderbilt fan for 30+ years, used to be NO ONE would come into Memorial and win. What’s alarming, is that in 11 home games this year, Vanderbilt is 7 – 4…FOUR losses. They have 3 possible NBA caliber players…one of the most talented teams in years..and they can’t get it done. Say what you will about drawing up plays to end regulation and end of OT – but they shouldn’t have been in that spot. Give MSU their due…they were lights out shooting, but if VU is supposed to be as talented as we’re told, they need to over come that. FOUR losses at home, I’m worried about the Vols coming to town on Tues.
When was this?
I’ve been following VU basketball since 1990 – in those 22 seasons we’ve had a grand total of 2 undefeated home seasons – 1993 and 2008. Since 1980 there have been 15 seasons where we have lost at least 4 games at home. Even Roy Skinner only had two undefeated seasons at home.
I know that losing at home sucks, but it isn’t like we’ve been invincible at home historically.
by Jason Fukuda on Jan 22, 2012 7:35 PM EST up reply actions
That isn't meant to be literal......
Look, I’m not going to be looking through gold colored glasses either. I’m as big of a Vandy homer as anyone, but when has a VU team had this much talent? It’s bother some to be up 11 at half and down by 7, four mins into the second half. Throw out all of the stats you want at me, I’m just wanting to see our team compete with the Duke’s, Kentucky’, UNC’s..until they can lock down the problem of losing at home – then they aren’t in that league. With your statement, “It isn’t like we’ve been invincible at home historically”..they’ve never made it to elite 8 status either. They need to be, if they’re going to make the next step, that’s what I’m saying – next year, the cupboard is going to be alot more bare.
Odds are...
You aren’t going to see that in our lifetime. If you are waiting for us to be on the same level with three of the top four programs in history, or you’ll be disappointed, then I would simply prepare to be disappointed.
The fact is, we just took the “next step” a few years ago. We’ve gone from a program that can hope to go to the tournament every 4 or 5 years, and maybe if we’re lucky have a run to the second weekend to a team that is there more years than not. I’d love if we immediately take the next step of being a team that perrenially challenges for league titles, but we’re not there yet, and this season simply isn’t over.
But if having a team that is very comfortable away from home means a few more OT losses at home, then I’m completely comfortable with that trade off if it means that we can shake the problems we’ve had histrorically on the road, which is a far more severe problme than our overall home record.
by Jason Fukuda on Jan 22, 2012 8:28 PM EST up reply actions
Thanks...
For this perspective Jason. The program has come a long way, and I guess the question is not when will take the “next step” to the elite level, but if we are going to be able to sustain the level of success (overall) that we’ve enjoyed the past few years.
I haven’t read much about it, but what is the deal with next year’s recruiting class? It seems we weren’t’ able to secure the caliber of athletes we have seen in recent classes.
by Pope Vanderbilt on Jan 23, 2012 10:42 AM EST up reply actions
5 minutes of stupid
That is pretty much the story of the game – the first five minutes of the 2nd half we get outscored 20-2, not getting a single stop. The rest of the game we played pretty well, which is what makes this loss so disappointing. Even more disappointing was that it was the starters (generally) having a collective 5 minutes brain fart – don’t get me started on the “shot” that Steve simply let fly out of his hands out of bounds.
I’m not sure what the issue could have possibly been – the first half was good because we were able to build up the lead while playing our reserves a decent number of minutes. But we certainly didn’t build up a 20 point lead and this is the first time we’ve come out of the half even flat – we were practically sleepwalking.
I’m also not sure why the team is so tight at the end of games (though this is a relatively minor complaint). Amazingly, we had two end of game situations – tied with 1.3 seconds at the end of regulation and down one with 2.8 seconds at the end of overtime. Both times we had to go 70+ feet and both times we got excellent clean looks at the basket. And both times the player rushed a shot when they could have taken time to get a better attempt. I don’t know that you can have a better look at the end with Jenkins getting a clean 18’ jumper. He just had to no jump on the catch and he would have had plenty of time to square and release.
2 words Chris Webber
Players make mistakes. Not taking time to set for the shot was a mistake by John. I’m not sure Fes could have done better in the moment, but John could have.
I know you were just saying that players make mistakes, but JJ hurrying a shot isn’t anywhere close to a CWebb kind of a brain fart.
I don’t worry about John there, he made the big shot to tie it in regulation. It seems like actually having the ball at the buzzer is a new thing for him.
Have we ever gotten him a shot at the buzzer before? It almost feels like the first time he’s gotten the ball in a last possession basically ever. But he’ll learn. Got a little clock shy this time, but with as cool a customer as JJ he doesn’t make a mistake like that twice.
I was just glad JJ got the shot at the buzzer. Like you said, I don’t remember him getting to many of those chances – if any.
Festus had a nice look from a few feet away to close regulation, though. If that falls then our streak is still going.
by Pope Vanderbilt on Jan 23, 2012 10:44 AM EST up reply actions
That was difficult to watch. We were flat coming out of halftime, State was hot. We then stuck with our offense and climbed back in to go to overtime. Aat the beginning of the half I think we tried to force it at Sidney and the fouls or baskets didn’t happen, which may have gotten to them. In general through the half we were running good offensive plays taking the ball inside but the fouls weren’t happening. Also, we were out-rebounded. The last minute or so of overtime was excruciating, but given the way we started the second half I’m glad we got to overtime.
Halftime
Why in the world would you be flat after coming back at halftime. What do they serve in the locker room. Come on guys, it is you senior year. Don’t screw it up.
To a certain degree
we have to give credit to MSU. They did hit 9 of 10 threes in the 2nd half and OT. Think about that for a moment, a better % than JJ has from the free throw line. Yes, there was some defensive confusion on 1 of them. But the rest were contested.
I did like how we fought back and tied the game at the end. Many key plays made by several people. I did not like how our offense broke down when we had several chances in the last minute. We tied the game by running the offense, not free-lancing.
I especially did not like CKS’ post-game interviews, basically putting the blame on the players and taking none himself. He was acting like the biggest freaking tool. Very dissappointing.
And speaking of talent
MSU is probably more talented than we are. Sidney is loaded with talent – he is a headcase, but showed how talented he was during that five minute run and in OT – basically, he was considered the 2nd rated center in 2009 – behind DeMarcus Cousins. Dee Bost is a legit PG who should be a very solid pro – could be better if he hones his shot, but even without deadly accuracy he is very good. Moultrie is another player who is a borderline lottery pick this year. That’s three NBA players who have equal or higher ceilings to our three top players.
Add in Rodney Hood, who was a borderline top 25 recruit, and you have a team that is easily as talented as we are. Which is something that is usually not mentioned – while we are easily more talented than we’ve been in a while, we are not so much more talented than the rest of the league, at least not the teams in the upper half. UK has way more than three NBA prospects, and UF has at least three (Young, Beal, Boynton) as well. Alabama has at least two, and probably three if you include Releford.
Which is to say that we have a very fine line between being excellent, and mediocre. If our guys aren’t sharp, we still are not so talented that we can expect to win games playing without full effort. Perhaps only JT could get away with it, but that is doubtful. OTOH, there are several players in this league who can get away with it – Jones, Sidney are two that do so regularly. To me, this makes this season so compelling – we have constant fight to play on edge at all times, because we don’t have a single great ballhandler, or even a single player who is an above average ball-handler for their position.
by Jason Fukuda on Jan 23, 2012 10:03 AM EST up reply actions
Question
Jason, who would you identify as some of the SEC’s top ballhandlers? Or, who on Vandy’s roster the past few years would qualify?
I’m still somewhat new to following basketball, having only really started paying attention when I was in grad school at Vandy starting in 05-06.
Thanks.
by Pope Vanderbilt on Jan 23, 2012 10:51 AM EST reply actions
I would say that...
Bost, Releford, and Walker are up there for sure. I haven’t seen enough out of Teague, but believe he has the talent to be there based on Calapari recruiting him. Robinson over at UGA would probably be in the second teir, though not that far off as well.
As for Vandy guards, Prater was really, really good, especially for a guy who was almost a non-factor otherwise offensively. Beal was very, very steady and extremely strong with the basketball, but wouldn’t be considered a top ballhandler – he wasn’t going to mesmerize you with the dribble, but you weren’t going to take it from him either.
And that’s probably it. We’ve had tremendous difficulty over the years getting an elite point guard because like the center position, it is on the extreme end of the position spectrum, and you cannot move a player from both ends into the position the way you can with SG, SF and PF (the positions where we’ve had the most sucess, and generally though guys who are tweeners). Kyle Fuller has the potential to be really good (IMO), but has so many other things he has to take care of first that I don’t know if he can get there.
by Jason Fukuda on Jan 23, 2012 3:51 PM EST up reply actions
Just go ahead and ban me, moderators.
by Pope Vanderbilt on Jan 23, 2012 10:52 AM EST up reply actions
It's ok, he's not really banned.
But I swear to god, if he messes up one more reply thread, I am locking these comments down FOR EVERYONE.
by Christian D'Andrea on Jan 23, 2012 4:05 PM EST up reply actions
This aggression will not stand, man.
But seriously, I apologized and used some self-deprecating humor.
I don’t do a ton of blog-related commenting, but I’ve enjoyed commenting here because as a dad of young kids and living in Savannah, I don’t have the time to hang out with other Vandy grads/fans and I just don’t know any around here. So this is kind of all I’ve got.
Anyhow, i think the writing here is top notch, and the quality of the commenting is also far above what I’ve encountered elsewhere on the internet, and I’ll try to do my part to keep it that way.
by Pope Vanderbilt on Jan 23, 2012 9:48 PM EST up reply actions
Don't worry, it was all tongue-in-cheek anyway
We’re happy to have you – your comments are always a welcome addition to the community :)
by Christian D'Andrea on Jan 24, 2012 11:41 PM EST up reply actions
I figured it was, but you know…the limits of text-based communication. And I’m not a fan of sarcasm font, so we have to live in the ambiguities.
by Pope Vanderbilt on Jan 25, 2012 10:33 AM EST up reply actions
Coaching Criticism
I’m reading a lot of criticism of our coaching. People seem to think that (1) Stallings somehow demoralized the team at halftime (as silly as it is unlikely); (2) Stallings failed to call timeout to stop a big run by the opposing team (true, but what else is new?); and (3) Stallings failed to call a timeout to draw up a play in the final seconds of OT. The third criticism is the only one that I continue to support two days after the loss.
I think Stallings drew-up to fantastic plays with <3 seconds on the clock to end regulation and OT. Unfortunately, Festus’s shot hit everything but the net, and Jenkins’s rushed shot clanged off the side of the rim. But the play design and execution were awesome. Still, these two excellent plays just make it even more perplexing and frustrating that Stallings did not call a timeout to draw up a play before Brad attempted to do his best Beal impression with plenty of time left on the clock.
my criticism
I just can’t get over how not fun it would be to play for Kevin Stallings…
Did you see the way he blew up Dai Jon when he botched the three coverage and the look on Dai Jon’s face after words? He was completely demoralized.
I can’t believe more hasn’t been said about the irony of James Franklin’s halftime speech about this not being the same old vanderbilt…
by CorneliusHimself on Jan 23, 2012 12:40 PM EST up reply actions
Yep, I am liking CKS less and less
the more I see him interact. I mentioned above that I thought his post game presser was revolting in the lack of personal responsibility. I know he’s upset. And I know he drew up excellent plays at the end to give us good chances to win. But he’s got to understand what’s involved with motivating people. And berating them and then throwing them under the bus publically is not the way to do it.
I'm obviously not there and not seeing as much on TV as I should...
…but I have gotten the sense that the student section is starting to turn on Stallings…is there anything to bear this out or is it just my imagination?
It does seem like he’s pointed the finger at the players in the post-game pressers more than usual this year, and not in a good way…
"Well, if that ain't a show, I'll kiss your ass." - Gov. Jim Folsom Sr. (D-AL), 1948-52
by VandyImport on Jan 24, 2012 12:03 PM EST up reply actions
Blowing the lead
I think this would be less upsetting if we had fought possession by possession back and forth exchanging the lead and then lost in overtime. It’s, once again. blowing a lead in a “should have won” game that hurts. MSU is probably more talented, as was said above, but we showed in the first half that we could win- at home- and then we didn’t.
Strangely, I do believe we will beat Tennessee. I’m not sure I can stand it if we don’t.
Rankings
I didn’t necessarily expect us to be ranked after the L but I didn’t expect to fall from 26 in both polls. We throttled Bama on the road. A place where they hadn’t lost an SEC game in a long time. And we lost to State by 1 in OT. A good State team that played very well. We should have won. It just shows the media and coaches are definitely thinking that this loss is reflective of the same team that lost to Indiana State and not the team that rolled 8 in a row. We’re still #32 in KenPom and I think our RPI is around 30 or so.
We’re okay and Fez is still recovering some what. I’m tired of that excuse but it’s true. When he’s 100% and playing great in March this is a different team. I’m not mad at Stallings. His play calling was perfect in that game. I understand it’s a coaches job to get players motivated but a coach can only do so much. It falls on the players too. That senior laden team should know better but they’ve done the same thing for 3 or 4 years so I’m not sure why we expected drastic changes when it seems to be consistent with these guys.
Having cooled off
The first 5 minutes of the second half contained two phenomenons that both had to take place for us to blow the lead. Yes, MSU scored 20 points in 5 mintues and that is unacceptable, but we only scored 2. If we hold them to 12 points or score 10 during that period, the game ends differently. I am still not convinced that MSU could shoot 90% on threes in an empty gym. Fes is still not ready to be the run stopper on the offensive end. That has to be JT or Flamethrower and they did not get sufficient touches during that time. At least that is the way I saw it.
by Smoke n Mirrors on Jan 23, 2012 4:37 PM EST reply actions
Very, very, very few people
shoot 90% from the free throw line. So to shoot 90% from 3 is a very big statistical anomoly. When I was younger, I might take a stab at the odds of doing so, but I’ve forgotten too much stats. My guess is someone here can figure out the odds of making 9 of 10 when your base odds are maybe 40%. Its pretty damn remote, I can tell you that.
But coulda, woulda, shoulda. What are the odds the SF punt returner fumbles twice? Bottom line is we lost. Time to move on.
What’s the Tennessee lineup looking like? They beat a good team in UConn. How do they match up to us?
MSU went 1/10 in the first half.
So 50% for the game. Not that unusual.
If they shot a decent percentage in the first half we wouldn’t have been up 11.
Positives
What positives can we take away from this game?
I thought the defense was good in the first half and we continue to get quality minutes from the bench (even at clutch points of the game). Earlier in the season when we put the bench in, it was guaranteed to cause evaporation of any lead.
When we decided to start playing in the second half, we ran our offense with patience to get back in the game.
Lance demonstrated that he can produce more than one bucket from the outside (I think this is important because it forces defenses to play him outside, which allows him to take the ball to the bucket for the Lance dunk).
Taylor driving.
Festus rebounding and shot blocking.
Go Dores! I hope the guys bounce back and dismantle the Vols.
I actually am not that upset about the loss. I mean what MSU did in that first 5 minutes was pretty freaking unreal. That Steel kid came out of nowhere. It reminded me of the first time Chandler Parsons lit us up back in the ‘08-’09 home game. All of the sudden there was this kid I had never heard of just making three after three after three. Most of them were contested too. If he’s going to make those shots, my hats off to him. Also note the big change between when we blew the lead and when we built it: Renardo Sydney was in the game. He didn’t play almost the entire first half.
Lastly, while we did give up a 10 point lead, so did MSU. So if we’re looking for positives, we definitely fought back hard (albeit in part due to some crazy Golbourne shots).

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