Basketball: Vanderbilt vs Mississippi State Preview -- The Periscope

by KingJamesIV on Jan 20, 2012 2:42 PM EST in Vanderbilt Commodores Basketball

Rick, to his wife: "Hey honey! I hear you screaming at the opponent's free throw shooter! Sure sounds like you are enjoying yourself!"

The Vanderbilt Commodores host the #18 / 15 Mississippi State Bulldogs Saturday night in historic Memorial Gym. In a season full of tests, this is the next opportunity for the Commodores to prove they are approaching the lofty preseason expectations. A win over the Bulldogs would most likely be the release mechanism for the catapult that is prepped to launch the Dores back into the Top 25 rankings, hopefully to stay. But we mustn't get ahead of ourselves. State is no slouch. They have some very talented pieces and certainly aren't ranked undeservedly.

Game Page /// TSN Preview /// For Whom the Cowbell Tolls /// FWTCT Preview /// SEC's Worst Losses: Mississippi State

Click through the jump for a breakdown of each team's opponents thus far and a closer look at their respective personnel.

Schedule Breakdown

To date, Vanderbilt has played 18 total games, 11 at home, 2 on neutral courts, and 5 on the road against an average KenPom rated opponent of 127.5. Mississippi State has played 19 total games, 13 at home (1 being "semi-home"), 2 on neutral courts, and 4 on the road (1 being "semi-away"), against an average rated D-I opponent of 149.0. Based on their performances to date, Kenpom rates Vanderbilt to be the third most efficient offensive and seventh most efficient defensive team that the Bulldogs will have played. Mississippi State rates as the fifth most efficient offensive team and the seventh most efficient defensive team that the Commodores will have played. Keep in mind that these numbers do not account for players that have missed games.

Based on previous opponents offensive and defensive efficiencies, Mississippi State most closely resembles North Carolina State. Vanderbilt most closely resembles West Virginia.

Statistical Breakdown

Looking solely at the tempo free statistics, Vanderbilt has a slight edge at the starting positions. Mississippi State has a strong bench advantage. Keep in mind that the individual statistics are not adjusted for the strength of the opponents and the location of games.

Four Factors: Mississippi State has a slight edge in turnover percentage. Offensive rebounding looks to be a draw, which could go either way depending on how the ball bounces. Vanderbilt's offense generates a signficantly larger number of free throw opportunities, but State is very good about defending without fouling (which probably has to do with their 97.6 defensive efficiency). Vanderbilt has a slight edge here. Vanderbilt also has an edge with regards to effective field goal percentage. Unless Mississippi State plays defense with a new-found aggression, I think it will be hard for Mississippi State to keep up with the Commodores offensively, particularly if Vanderbilt starts hitting from outside. Prediction: Vanderbilt wins eFG%, FTRate, and OReb%.

Ken Pomeroy predicts a 74-66 Vanderbilt win in a game with a tempo of 67. He rates Vanderbilt's win percentage at 77%.

Traditional Statistics -- Mississippi State Bulldogs

			FG			3PT			FT			Rebounds			Misc
	G	M	M	A	Pct	M	A	Pct	M	A	Pct	Off	Def	Tot	Ast	TO	Stl	Blk	PF	PPG
Arnett Moultrie	16	33.3	5.9	10.2	57.7	0.3	0.5	50.0	4.1	5.0	82.5	4.1	6.9	11.0	1.2	2.3	0.9	0.9	2.0	16.1
Dee Bost	19	34.2	4.9	13.2	37.6	2.2	6.6	32.5	3.9	5.2	76.5	0.6	2.7	3.3	4.4	2.7	2.2	0.3	2.3	16.0
Rodney Hood	19	33.7	4.7	9.6	48.6	1.5	3.7	40.8	0.8	1.4	57.7	1.2	4.1	5.2	2.1	0.8	0.5	0.5	1.3	11.7
Renardo Sidney	16	21.8	4.2	7.4	56.8	0.6	1.3	45.0	1.6	2.6	63.4	1.3	3.9	5.2	0.4	1.5	0.9	0.8	2.9	10.6
Brian Bryant	16	25.8	2.9	6.9	41.4	0.4	1.4	31.8	1.3	1.8	72.4	1.3	3.4	4.6	1.8	1.1	0.4	0.4	1.4	7.5
Jalen Steele	19	21.7	2.3	6.1	38.3	1.5	4.4	34.5	0.7	0.8	81.3	0.5	1.4	1.9	1.0	1.1	0.5	0.1	1.1	6.8
Deville Smith	18	16.1	1.8	4.5	40.7	0.4	1.8	25.0	1.3	1.9	65.7	0.4	1.5	1.9	2.4	1.8	1.0	0.1	1.9	5.4
Wendell Lewis	19	21.6	2.1	3.1	67.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.5	1.1	50.0	1.9	2.2	4.1	0.3	0.6	0.5	1.2	1.3	4.7
Shaun Smith	1	12.0	1.0	2.0	50.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.0
Taylor Luczak	8	1.4	0.0	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.3	100.0	0.0	0.3	0.3	0.0	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.3
Reed Clayton	7	1.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.6	25.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1
Roquez Johnson	9	4.6	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.7	16.7	0.3	0.9	1.2	0.0	0.6	0.1	0.3	0.6	0.1
Charles Parker	8	1.8	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Tyson Cunningham	8	1.5	0.0	1.1	0.0	0.0	0.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.5	0.0
Baxter Price	8	1.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Tipoff is scheduled for 1800 CT and the game will be available on ESPN2 (as well as ESPN3). Our open gamethread will go live two hours before tipoff. Also, don't forget to head over to Stat-King to submit your predictions for the game.

Poll

Vanderbilt vs. Mississippi State -- Margin of Victory

Vanderbilt by 10+

41 votes

Vanderbilt by < 10

90 votes

Mississippi State by < 10

5 votes

Mississippi State by 10+

2 votes

138 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

Last year we had some success in the first game

feeding to Festus early and getting Sidney in foul trouble. In the second game he didn’t have foul trouble and played pretty well. I am hoping to see us work the ball into Festus to start the game.

by GTwill on Jan 20, 2012 3:26 PM EST reply actions

MSU is the opposite of Bama

Talk about a contrast in styles – MSU plays defense and acts alergic to fouling – they rarely sent opponents to the FT line, and force you to score on them straight up. Additionally, they almost never gamble or trap, and are actually worse than we have been at creating turnovers. This style worked pretty well when you had the all-time leading shotblocker in Varnado, but there has been decent slippage since he’s graduated. They will protect the defensive glass however.

OTOH, offensively this is a good club. With Bost at the helm, they almost never turn the ball over and have several players who can shoot the ball, and a couple of guys who can get it done on the inside. They are not going to put a ton of pressure on the defense and force fouls, but they definitely can score. Pretty balanced offense that will get shots off.

However, MSU generally avoided playing road games in the non-conference season, with their only true road non-conference game against a mediocre Detroit team that they won by 5. Otherwise they have not looked particularly good in road situations, having lost soundly to both Ark and Ole Miss.

This will again be a test for our defense. This is the best offensive team we will have faced, but not by as much of a margin as you might think. This will also be one of the tallest teams we’ve faced as well, so it will challange our front line. As with the Bama game, the key matchup will be how Lance defends Moultrie – he’s done well so far but this is his tallest challange (literally). Last season they had a lot of difficulty with Jenkins and Taylor – I imagine this will continue on Saturday.

by Jason Fukuda on Jan 20, 2012 3:37 PM EST reply actions

another good caption

Does anyone remember her barking? I think it should say “sweetheart, we lose the ball every time you bark and my bench giggles each time you say ‘put it in the hole’.”

by vanalyst on Jan 20, 2012 10:46 PM EST via mobile reply actions

Her shrieks

at free throw shooters sound more like they belong in the bedroom than on the basketball court, if you catch my drift.

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by KingJamesIV on Jan 21, 2012 12:43 AM EST reply actions

Football

On a separate note, anyone notice that Jelks was upgraded to 4-star by Rivals?

Also, don’t forget how valuable Lance is to this team. He is playing very well and showing a lot of tenacity with rebounds and blocks. This team goes as far as Brad and Lance will take them.

by OldDore on Jan 21, 2012 8:22 AM EST reply actions