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Basketball: Vanderbilt at Alabama Preview -- The Periscope

The Vanderbilt Commodores travel to Tuscaloosa to face the Alabama Crimson Tide in a game that could go a long way towards helping determine who might be the greatest challenger to Kentucky for the SEC title. The Crimson Tide is one of the premier defensive teams in the country. Vanderbilt boasts one of the country's most efficient offenses.

Game Page /// TSN Preview /// Roll Bama Roll /// RBR Preview /// SEC's Worst Losses: Alabama

Click through the jump for a breakdown of each team's opponents thus far and a closer look at their respective personnel.

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Schedule Breakdown

To date, Vanderbilt has played 17 total games, 11 at home, 2 on neutral courts, and 4 on the road against an average KenPom rated opponent of 135.9. Alabama has played 17 total games, 9 at home (1 being "semi-home"), 3 on neutral courts, and 3 on the road (1 being "semi-away"), against an average rated D-I opponent of 115.2. Based on their performances to date, Kenpom rates Vanderbilt to be the seventh most efficient offensive and defensive team that the Crimson Tide will have played. Alabama rates as the fifth most efficient offensive team and the most efficient defensive team that the Commodores will have played. Keep in mind that these numbers do not account for players that have missed games.

Based on previous opponents offensive and defensive efficiencies, Alabama most closely resembles Louisville or Marquette, though Bama is clearly superior to both defensively. Vanderbilt most closely resembles Purdue, Georgetown, Kansas State or VCU. Historically, probably closest to VCU, though I think Vandy is probably more similar to Georgetown with Festus getting closer to 100% (though I also think the Dores could end up improving even further with a little more time).

Statistical Breakdown

Looking solely at the tempo free statistics, Vanderbilt has a nice edge at the starting positions. Alabama has a strong bench advantage. Keep in mind that the individual statistics are not adjusted for the strength of the opponents and the location of games.

Four Factors: Turnover percentage and offensive rebounding look fair neutral between these teams, and I could see either team winning either category. Vanderbilt has a significant advantage in free throw rate. I would imagine that Stallings game plan will include a heavy dose of attacking the rim to exploit this. The interesting statistic will be effective field goal percentage. Alabama's defense is the immovable object, and Vanderbilt's offense is the unstoppable force. If the officials are aggressive with their whistles, I think that will be a huge boost for the Commodores. If they let them play, I would imagine Alabama will frustrate the Commodores shooters. Prediction: Vanderbilt wins eFG% and FTRate.

Ken Pomeroy predicts a 65-57 Alabama win in a game with a tempo of 63. He rates Vanderbilt's win percentage at 22%.

Traditional Statistics -- Alabama Crimson Tide


FG 3PT FT Rebounds Misc
G M M A Pct M A Pct M A Pct Off Def Tot Ast TO Stl Blk PF PPG
Tony Mitchell 17 32.3 5.9 12.4 47.6 1.2 3.5 33.3 1.6 2.6 60.0 1.5 6.0 7.5 1.9 1.9 1.0 1.5 2.8 14.5
JaMychal Green 14 27.8 5.4 9.9 54.3 0.1 0.6 12.5 3.4 4.8 71.6 2.4 4.1 6.6 2.0 2.9 0.9 1.4 3.0 14.2
Trevor Releford 17 29.5 4.4 8.1 54.3 0.5 1.9 25.0 3.2 3.6 87.1 0.6 2.2 2.8 3.2 2.1 1.6 0.1 2.4 12.5
Trevor Lacey 17 26.4 2.5 6.1 41.7 0.9 3.2 27.8 1.5 1.9 78.8 0.4 3.1 3.5 2.1 1.7 0.8 0.1 1.7 7.5
Andrew Steele 4 16.3 1.8 2.5 70.0 0.3 0.3 100.0 2.8 3.0 91.7 0.8 1.8 2.5 2.0 1.3 1.3 0.0 1.5 6.5
Levi Randolph 17 29.1 2.4 6.2 38.7 0.4 2.0 20.6 0.9 1.4 62.5 1.2 2.6 3.8 2.1 0.9 1.1 0.0 1.8 6.1
Nick Jacobs 17 18.2 2.4 4.9 48.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.2 50.0 1.5 2.2 3.8 0.2 1.0 0.3 1.1 2.1 5.3
Rodney Cooper 16 16.8 1.4 3.6 37.9 0.4 1.8 25.0 0.9 1.2 78.9 1.3 1.6 2.9 0.6 1.3 0.5 0.3 1.4 4.1
Charles Hankerson Jr 15 10.6 1.1 2.9 37.2 0.4 1.3 31.6 0.6 1.0 60.0 0.3 1.1 1.4 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.1 1.4 3.1
Keon Blackledge 3 5.7 0.7 1.0 66.7 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.3
Ben Eblen 15 6.6 0.3 0.7 36.4 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 0.5
Carl Engstrom 15 6.3 0.1 0.3 40.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 20.0 0.7 0.9 1.5 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.5 1.7 0.3
Moussa Gueye 1 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Julian Goode 1 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


Tipoff is scheduled for 1800 CT and the game will be available on ESPN2 (as well as ESPN3). Our open gamethread will go live two hours before tipoff. Also, don't forget to head over to Stat-King to submit your predictions for the game.

Poll
Vanderbilt at Alabama -- Margin of Victory
Vanderbilt by 10+
8 votes
Vanderbilt by < 10
33 votes
Alabama by < 10
11 votes
Alabama by 10+
2 votes

54 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 12 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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great caption

Turnover/ Ball protection are priorities 1, 2, and 3. This will be a tough game and I hope that our boys are prepared for a fist fight. Expect us to pull out a win by 2-4 points.

Vandy Fan. Yankee by birth, Southern by choice.
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Remember the 5!

by VUfanInNJ on Jan 19, 2012 4:01 PM EST reply actions  

We've actaully done a good job of this the last two seasons.

Both at home and away two years ago we did a very good job of protecting the ball – 12 TO"s last season and 8 the year before. We weren’t so good on the defensive glass last year, which really kept Bama in the game.

This game will really be a test of our defense and defensive rebounding IMO. CKS will play as much zone as he needs to, but we got burned a bit by running it last year. Unfortunately, simply switching to zone doesn’t transform a bad defensive team into a good one.

by Jason Fukuda on Jan 19, 2012 4:43 PM EST up reply actions  

Great point on the officiating

It could be a big factor in how the game is played and who wins. Hopefully, the officials won’t be swayed by the home crowd.

by GTwill on Jan 19, 2012 4:18 PM EST reply actions  

ESPN 3

Are you sure it’s on there? I didn’t see it listed.

by foreverhopeful on Jan 19, 2012 4:31 PM EST reply actions  

I've been able to watch most of the ESPNU games this season on ESPN3.

I think they’ve realized people are going to find an online stream so they might as well just show it.

by doredarling on Jan 20, 2012 4:47 PM EST up reply actions  

Last season

Our matchups were very different, with LG (on a bum ankle) guarding Green and JT defending Mitchell. This season it will be Ezeli on Green and Goulbourne on Mitchell, giving us a bit of a different look. Bama actually has a reserve freshman center who has done a good job replacing Chris Hines, except that he backs up Green as opposed to playing aside of him.

The largest impact this has is that Taylor will now most likely defend either Lacey or Releford – my guess would be Releford with Jenkins assigned to Lacey while we are in a straight man defense.

It will be interesting to see how they defend Taylor – last season it was Mitchell, who is very good and has similar size and athleticism. This season it would likely be Randolph, who will give up some size (and likely some athleticism).

This will be a test for our defense – I get the feeling that we should be able to score against them and that if we can continue to play defense we should be able to steal one down there.

by Jason Fukuda on Jan 19, 2012 4:36 PM EST reply actions  

OJ Wolfe You are a Gentleman and a Scholar

Thanks for the link to out of country access!!!!

by biscomusic on Jan 19, 2012 5:36 PM EST reply actions  

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