Baffling stat of the day...
by vanalyst on Feb 14, 2011 10:44 AM EST
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PrintBaffling stat of the day: Vanderbilt has won every game that leading scorer John Jenkins has scored fewer than 21 points.
After the February 12th game against Kentucky, John Jenkins' season average of 19.8 ppg includes five games which he scored more than 22 points. The Kentucky game was the first victory of the five. Here's the breakdown courtesy of ESPN.com:
| DATE | OPP | RESULT | FG | FGA | FTM | FTA | 3PM | 3PA | PTS |
| 12-Feb | Kentucky | W 81-77 | 11 | 17 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 32 |
| 19-Nov | @W Virginia | L 74-71 | 6 | 19 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 11 | 27 |
| 8-Jan | @S Carolina | L 83-75 | 7 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 27 |
| 29-Jan | Arkansas | L 89-78 | 6 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 24 |
| 8-Dec | @Missouri | L 85-82 | 7 | 14 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 23 |
| 1-Feb | @Florida | L 65-61 | 8 | 14 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 22 |
| 18-Nov | Nebraska | W 59-49 | 8 | 13 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 22 |
| 24-Nov | Gram St | W 92-59 | 7 | 16 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 22 |
| 15-Jan | @Tennessee | L 67-64 | 6 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 21 |
| 27-Nov | App St | W 86-73 | 8 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 21 |
| 1-Dec | W Kentucky | W 82-62 | 7 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 21 |
| 27-Jan | @Miss St | W 81-74 | 5 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 21 |
| 19-Jan | Ole Miss | W 84-74 | 7 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 20 |
| 10-Feb | Alabama | W 81-77 | 5 | 11 | 9 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 20 |
| 22-Jan | St Mary's | W 89-70 | 6 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 19 |
| 12-Jan | Georgia | W 73-66 | 4 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 18 |
| 5-Feb | S Carolina | W 78-60 | 6 | 12 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 18 |
| 21-Nov | @UNC | W 72-65 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 2 | 7 | 16 |
| 21-Dec | @MTSU | W 72-53 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 16 |
| 29-Dec | Marquette | W 77-76 | 4 | 21 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 13 |
| 18-Dec | SE Louisiana | W 85-52 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 12 |
| 12-Nov | Presbyterian | W 88-47 | 4 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 10 |
| 4-Dec | Belmont | W 85-76 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 10 |
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Baffling
First takeaway: John’s mom can see the future.
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Take a look at Jeff Taylor's stats
I’ll bet you find almost the exact opposite.
Amazingly, only in the WVU game was Jenkins inefficient. It isn’t like he’s been padding his stats in our losses by taking a ton of shots – he’s been the sole reason why we were in any of those games.
Also amazing is that since the calander year 2011 began, he’s been an combination of fantastic and consistent. You could make an arguement that Jenkins is a combination of the most improved player and POTY in the SEC this season.
Yeah, we discussed this in a fan post earlier this season. He really has been just plain good in these games. My theory at the time was that he’s attempting to take the team on his back (and doing a good job) but not enough to make up for everyone else.
The other thing is that, given his consistency, the difference between his higher scoring games and the rest of his games is just 2 or 3 shots most of the time.
Judging by the way JJ gets pumped up during close games at home (and almost always responds when he gets pumped up), I was thinking that JJ is just the only one who has been responding in the clutch on the road. So he picks up the pace from his usual 20 per game, but it’s just not enough when we aren’t rebounding or turning it over or getting torched by Rotnei Clark.
He doesn’t score more in the wins, I guess because he doesn’t need to.
It’s weird that his high scoring games don’t correlate to wins, but I’m continually in awe of the fact that, no matter how good or bad he is playing, he hasn’t scored less than 18 since December.
When the non-Jenkins players can get us within 18, we win. Simple as that. But in the other games, everyone else has been so poor that we’ve needed 30. We finally got it. I’d love to see it a few more times this year, especially in March.
Somehow, I think that if we see Jenkins score 30 a few more times, those games will end the same as his first 30 did.
As for SEC POY
Jenkins has the best scoring average in the SEC, 19.8 /g. And it’s even better in SEC play.
He’s averaging 22.3 in SEC play with the next best being Jones from UK at 18.9.
JJ’s FG %age in SEC play is .551, 5th in the league behind 4 low post players.
He’s got 223 points on 118 shots for the whole SEC season. That’s pretty impressive.
He’s also 2nd in FT% and 2nd in 3 pt% in SEC play.
Jones’s 8.7 REB/g (2nd in the SEC in SEC play) combined with his scoring may win it for him, but I don’t really think you could go with anyone else other than those two…
(BTW, in SEC play, Parsons leads in REB/g with 8.9, but is 27th with only 11.8 ppg.)
I’d be super pumped if he won, but what is even more awesome is that our legit SEC POY contender is going to be here for 2 more years and UKs is as good as gone.
by The Goche on Feb 14, 2011 4:25 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Taylor in losses:
Formatting not good but you get the point. Taylor averages 11.8 ppg in each loss. The biggie for him is 3 of 21 from 3-point land in these losses.
DATE OPP RESULT FG FGA FTM FTA 3PM 3PA PTS
8-Dec @Missouri L 85-82 9 16 0 2 0 4 18
8-Jan @S Carolina L 83-75 4 16 6 7 0 2 14
15-Jan @Tennessee L 67-64 5 14 4 5 0 3 14
29-Jan Arkansas L 89-78 5 12 2 2 1 5 13
1-Feb @Florida L 65-61 2 12 1 2 2 6 7
19-Nov @W Virginia L 74-71 1 4 3 3 0 1 5
Pretty much as I suspected
The only game in which he played well was the Missou game, and he didn’t really get to the line in that game (or make them when he did get there). Otherwise, it is worse than disappearing, in that he’s been very visably bad, missing a lot of shots in those losses.
We need Taylor to not play poorly to win games, which means it is better that he disappear than have him show up and miss 10 shots. Jenkins OTOH is going to score his 20 points pretty much every game regardless of who we play or where. Hopefully we see the good version of Taylor on Wednesday.
by Jason Fukuda on Feb 14, 2011 11:28 PM EST up reply actions
Are you saying offensive production is the only way to assess a contribution to the team?
There is more to basketball then just points, but I couldn’t tell from your post. Hey, there are plenty of plays that aren’t recorded into statistics – like the number of times Jenkins got beat off the dribble against UK in the first half. Even then, stats can be misleading at times. In fact, Fes has six blocks in 2 games this year; both losses.
This is a team and Jenkins leads this team in a number of ways but you can’t discount the contributions of his teammates.
There is a decent arguement
…to be made that Jenkins is still rather under-utilized. Since he plays almost all of the minutes at the 2 guard spot, his usage rate is actually pretty low for a player who is leading the league in scoring by a decent margin. His efficiency this season is actually slightly higher than it was last season, even though his three point shot hasn’t fallen at the same rate that it fell last season. Would anybody be disappointed if he too another 2-3 shots per game?
Jenkins is probably about as good as a player can be who might consider playing four seasons. If a player is any better, they generally don’t stay more than two seasons. For a college player, Jenkins is the perfect combination of the ability to play the game, but limited (from an NBA standpoint) athleticism.
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