You can't get something for nothing.
(Or, sometimes the coaching is just picking his poison)
First off, I was very happy with the effort against Louisville - we defended pretty well and we fought very hard against a top ten team in their gym without two of our three centers. The game against Louisville was interesting because it marked a change in the rotations that CKS likes to use - instead of bringing several players off the bench, he limited the bench minutes to three players - Johnson, Parker and Odom and really only played Odom and Johnson more than token minutes. As a result, all five starters played over 40 minutes, which is unprecedented for the 13 years that CKS has been head coach.
There have been many who have been critical of CKS' attempts to develop his bench, which has led at times to us giving away leads. Unfortunately (contrary to the complainer's misconception), it isn't simply a matter of CKS being a poor coach, or "stubborn". As we could see at the end of the game, all five of our players were absolutely gassed. This led to turnovers that increased as the game went along, missed free throws, and defensive breakdowns. In addition, we go one game where our bench gets little to no experince in a game situation that we might face later in the year, and those players will have to face next season.
Personally, I believe that CKS devised a very good plan to attack Louisville's pressure and halfcourt defense, which is excellent. Louisville's strength is denying three point attempts and we were still able to get off 26 good looks from three, hitting them at a 38% clip. We were also able to work around our complete lack of an inside game by drawing fouls, which unfortunately we were unable to convert. Given the level of competition that we have faced over the last couple of games and the increased level of defense I have seen from the guards there is a lot of reasons to be optimistc about what is going on even in the wake of the disappoiting losses. To some extent, these losses seem similar, except we were losing this way with a power inside game and a premeire shot blocker and offensive rebounder who drew a ton of fouls. We are essentially at the level we were last season, but doing so without Ezeli.
Yes these losses are frustrating, but we are essentially asking our starters to play 90% of the available minutes in these games - given that we are not getting much from the bench we are going to be limited until somebody steps up. But it is clear to me that each of our starters are better players this season.
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Bench Development
Glad you touched on that. Without Festus, we have ZERO margin for error against these top teams, and as a result, we are not giving bench players valuable minutes to develop and get comfortable with all the differences between high school level basketball and college level basketball.
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More Festus Perspective
If you want to see how we’ve been able to mitigate Festus’ absence, look at how we did last season in our last several losses when Festus was sitting on the bench:
Home against Arkansas we were outscored 27-13 with Ezeli on the bench (11 point loss)
At UF we were outscored 27 to 34 while he sat, mainly due to foul trouble (4 point loss).
Against UT at home we were outscored 32-26 (9 point loss).
UK on the road we were even 8-8 (2 point loss)
UF at home we get outscored 30-11 (10 point loss).
UF in the SEC tournament we are outscored 38-16 (11 point loss).
And finally, against Richmond we are outscored 19-6 (3 point loss).
Basically, at the end of last season we were, for the most part, getting dominated against good teams whenever Festus had to sit due to foul issues or rest – absolutely dominated. This season, We’ve done a good job of mitigating our issues offensively and defensively without Festus to the point where we are no longer getting blown out. Now some of this was because other starters were also sitting, but given that John, Jeff and Brad were playing almost every minute of every game at the end of the season, this does seem to underscore Festus’ importance and what a difficult time were we likely to have in his absence.
Disagree last point: I think most of our players look worse...
Compared to how they played at the end of last year, to my eye:
Tinsley looks worse. Less able to score consistently when needed. More likely to pull up the dribble under pressure.
SteveT looks immeasurably worse. There were times last year when he looked like he might become a solid player. This year, other than being able to pull some boards, he looks terrible. He makes mistakes on defense (helping when he shouldn’t and being drawn out of position) and he is utterly inept on offense.
JJ looks about the same on the floor but worse from the free throw stripe.
JT has looked somewhat better to me. Fewer stretches where he just disappears. More willing to take shots. Now he needs to relax enough to make the shots.
LG looks considerably improved, but if he’s going to shoot a lot he’s got to get the FT percentage up.
Hard to say how much the lack of Fes has to do with all this. I think a lot in SteveT’s case because he’s now guarding starting centers rather than backup centers and power forwards. The others, however, wouldn’t seem so much affected.
Sample Sizes
Looking at FT% at this point is going to give you a skewed picture, especially since we are shooting a considerably lower number of FT’s per game.
Tinsley has been for the most part as good as he was last season, when considering games where he’s been under a similar amount of pressure. Jenkins has been much, much better defensively that he was last season, and Steve can actually move and rebound this season. Lance is clearly improved in his consistency, and Jeff has passed, rebounded and shot better from inside the three point line.
But the idea that somehow most of our players look worse, while we’re missing our best player, and we’re pretty much playing the same as we did last year is very counter-intuitive. If we were as bad as you think, we would be getting blown out right now, as we generally were when Festus was not on the floor.
JJ I think has looked better by a pretty good bit. It’s hard to say because he was already so good, but I have been pretty amazed with him these last couple of games.
But other than JJ and LG, I do agree no one is playing that well offensively. The defense has looked so much better the last couple of games. That will be a big help.
Again, the real problem is the complete lack of inside game without Fes.
Mixed bag
I would disagree that all of the starters look better. I think that JJ and JT look better. JJ’s defense is better (but it couldn’t get worst). JT missed a couple of shots due to exhaustion at the end of the game. Lance is definitely improved but we are also putting him in positions he shouldn’t be (handling the ball). Steve looks about the same and I think a lot of that has to do with coming off the surgery. Brad is that one that concerns me. He looks more timid against pressure and his FG% is off. Having said that, I think this team is getting better. I would like to see KJ get more minutes, but every time CKS tries, KJ costs us possessions. I think the real frustration with this team is on the offensive end. Most of us expected a high scoring team and we just aren’t there right now.
The frustration is not that we lost to two top 15 teams. It is that both games should have been wins. On the other hand, we deserved to lose the Cleveland State game. Let’s hope this is our darkest hour of the season. I hold out hope. As a Vandy fan, I am required to be the eternal optimist.
Overall
Brad played pretty well last night – Louisville’s pressure was more relentless than what Xavier showed us – Johnson was completely overwhelmed. His shot is a bit off, but he probably benefits more than anybody from Festus’ presence in the paint, because John’s guy never leaves him to help in the double team – it is more than likely Brad’s guy leaving him open to double the post. And Steve has rebounded much better this season, while playing better overall defense while avoiding fouls.
I really don’t see this hour as being particularly dark. Our schedule has had only one team that wasn’t really capable of beating us – everybody else has been a top 100 type team – we’ve been adjusting through playing without Ezeli, which we did very poorly last season. This is something that we were going to have to go through at some point anyway. It just looks worse because we haven’t been winning games that we could have.
What about Fuller?
Sure he performed somewhat poorly against Xavier, but to not give him a single second of action!? Johnson and Parker are absolutely dismal right now. There was a 6-point swing in 54 seconds when they were both on the floor last night. I’m beginning (well, not really beginning) to think that Stallings has absolutely no ability to adjust in games whatsoever – especially when it matters.
Fuller?
Have you actually watched Fuller this season? He’s regressed pretty badly, to the point where he is playing with zero confidence – it isn’t just Xavier (though that was the low point) – we’ve been outscored in every game when he’s been on the court with the exception of Monmouth. What are you getting from him at this point?
I find it funny how CKS gets criticied for playing Fuller, then not playing Fuller, then how he played Fuller. He’s likely attempting to give his kids playing time to see how they react, because they need to develop. But based on his play of the first 7 games, Fuller absence was completely unsurprising.
Kedren Johnson
I believe this guy is ready to step up for more PT. I have seen him play very well and we will need him down the stretch.

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