SEC COY V2.0

I think it is safe to say that the SEC Coach of the Year race is likely down to essentially one candidate with a second in tow for consideration.  Sure, Calipari won the conference with 14 total wins, but name one respected media analyst that picked Kentucky to finish worse than first during the preseason media days?  Anyone?  Even Vegas thought Kentucky was a slam dunk – here was the prospect bet on November 12 for the SEC East champion:

By default, the coach of the conference champion is normally the coach of the year winner.  But because Kentucky was a clear frontrunner from the beginning, I would encourage the voters to take a closer look. (hold your “but he can recruit” BS)

Going back to the original COY analysis, you will find that the starting five for Kentucky includes four 5-star recruits while Vanderbilt starts four 4-star recruits.  The predictive player effectiveness calculations based on actual results shows that Kevin Stallings (+3.19) got more production out of his players than John Calipari (+.76)

Do you want to talk recruiting now?  Ok.  How many of Vanderbilt’s starting five would get accepted to UK?  All five.  How about UK’s starting five getting accepted to Vanderbilt?  And I am talking with true standardized test scores, not some phony GPA boosted by taking beginners math as a Senior in high school.  I don’t know this answer because ACT’s aren’t published for recruits that don’t achieve high marks.  So if you truly want to compare apples to apples in recruiting, Stallings did a great job getting students who play ball while Calipari did an excellent job getting ballers into school.  Don’t believe me, flop admission standards for Stallings and Calipari to see what recruits land where.  Recruiting is not everything, just ask Gillespie.  Here is a look at Gillespie’s recruits:

Each of his recruiting classes were better than Stallings’ but Gillespie was run from town.  Calipari brought in two recruits that far outpace anyone on this list.  However, most of these players are still on the team making the bench talent that much better and Calipari didn’t even recruit them.  Hey UK fan, if you take the recruiting argument as to why Cal should win COY, then explain why you lost a single game in conference when this talent (Gillespie’s and Calipari’s) far exceeds any other team in the league. 

Sadly, most voters will go with the default choice of league champion and select Calipari as COY when he got outcoached by others with less talent.

What about…

Bruce Pearl:  He motivated through his depth issues during conference play.  But, UT still started two 5-star athletes all year to achieve 10 conference victories – admirable work Bruce (+1.35).   

Billy Donovan:  Donovan’s 9 wins starting two 5- and 4-star recruits underperformed the likes of UT and Vandy. (-1.97)  Donovan is a great coach but his numbers haven’t shown it.  Are the recruits more interested in the scenery of Gainesville?

Trent Johnson:  Tasmin Mitchell’s production (and 20th rank in the 2005 class) wasn’t enough for LSU.  (-5.11)