Aussie Rule: A.J. Ogilvy, King of Vanderbilt's Success Going Forward

I think AJ is going to benefit from not having Dolla around next year. Losing his perimeter scoring, assuming the load doesn’t fall on John Jenkins, will mean more iso plays in the paint for Ogilvy, which he converts at a high rate. If he can put together a solid senior year he’ll put himself back in the first round of the NBA Draft, and I think he knows that.

It wouldn’t surprise me to see him declare for the draft and go through some workouts to place his value, but I’d be surprised if he left Vandy before his eligibility is up just because we all know that there’s more he can accomplish here. With him this is a NCAA Tournament team, but without him they’re on the bubble or worse.

Plus, another year mentoring Festus can only mean good things for the squad.

The first of which is that he is extremely talented, and I think because of that, I hold him to a higher standard. He is obviously big and strong, but he also has a wide array of post moves. He has everything he needs to dominate on a nightly basis, so it’s perplexing when he disappears or when he misses a shot at the rim because it doesn’t seem like he took it up strong enough. Perhaps this is all unfair, but I think it’s reasonable to expect the most out of your best player.

Second, though I’ll readily admit that I have no numbers or data to back this up, I have this perception that he is consistently outperformed by the best players. Over the last 3 years, Patterson and Chism have dominated AJ despite being very similar in size and style (I think AJ has a much better post game than Chism, actually). Elite players step up and play their best against other elite players, and I don’t feel like I have seen that on a consistent basis from AJ.

That being said, I absolutely believe this team is better with him on it. I don’t know much about our recruits, but we would be very thin in the frontcourt and lack a reliable post scorer if AJ leaves. I have thought since the middle of the ‘08-’09 season that ‘10-’11 was going to be the year this team would be really dangerous. That goes out the window without AJ. We need him back…but we also need him to be at his very best.

Again, I’m not questioning his dedication or his desire to the game and his teammates. I just want him to maximize his talents, and it irks me when I don’t see that happening.

Lest we forget that he was the only regular contributor who showed up for the Siena game.

Our floor goes down considerably if he’s not back next year. More than that, he’s a good player and a good kid … hope he’s back.

Heading into the season, I expected AJ to dominate the SEC and contend for SEC POY. He had a good season, but obviously was a notch below other talented big men (Cousins, Samhan). I think many fans had the same expectations and same disappointment; however, instead of blaming AJ, I think it was my expectations that were off. AJ might not be the best center in the NCAA, but he is the best one we have had in a while.

AJ suffers from doing things well that fans do not appreciate. Unlike Cousins, Varnado, or even Chism, AJ tends to play below the rim. Instead of swatting shots (Varnado), throwing down dunks (Cousins) or being able to step outside and drain big shots (Chism, Patterson), AJ gets to the free throw line and makes his shots. This makes him less exciting to watch, but two free throws are not worth any less than a thunderous dunk.

AJ also gets penalized because of Shan Foster. I used to chalk up AJ’s sophomore numbers (good, but not great) to injury, but I now think that his freshman numbers were inflated because opponents could not afford to focus on him. Instead of focusing on AJ in the post, they were double teaming Shan on the perimeter. While Beal, Jenkins, and Taylor are very talented players, they are not – or in the case of Jenkins and Taylor not yet – Shan Foster. So, AJ’s freshman numbers cannot really be compared to his numbers as a sophomore and junior. He no longer benefits from playing with a guy that can hit a shot from anywhere at anytime.

If AJ comes back, I do not expect him to dominate the SEC. I simply expect him to be a good center – capable of carrying the team at times and disappearing at others. If Jenkins and Taylor can continue to improve, good is all we need from AJ. While he might never be Will Perdue, he is the best Vanderbilt big man since Perdue left. If we want next year’s team to improve on this year’s disappointing finish, we will need AJ in the lineup.

They also need to practice being pushed around while trying to finish in the paint. I remember in high school playing for Coach Bowers at MBA when we had a post drill where the defender held one of those football blocking pads and would just incessantly pound the guy with the ball to simulate rough play. It was a great drill though because it taught you to focus harder on the rim and balance your body better on contact, especially when you were in the air and the defender would smack you with the pad. The contact simulated in this drill is overkill, as you can probably tell by the description, but it makes game contact seem much weaker.