Scouting Murray St. - Statistical Breakdown

by KingJamesIV on Mar 17, 2010 11:56 AM EDT in Basketball Comment 2 comments

At first glance, Murray State's individual stats are quite impressive. Issac Miles sweeps the PG slot in tempo free statistics over Jermaine Beal. Same with Ivan Aska over Andre Walker in the PF slot and Tony Easley over A.J. Ogilvy in the C slot. Jeffery Taylor is the only Commodore to sweep his opponent (Danero Thomas), with John Jenkins taking two of three against his evil doppelgänger B.J. Jenkins. Even the Murray State bench sweeps the Commodores. The doubt starts creeping into the back of your mind...

...then you realize that all the individual statistics are not adjusted for strength of schedule. Murray State's offensive and defensive efficiencies are adjusted (of course that begs the question of how well someone can devise a formula to accurately adjust for the disparity between strength of schedules as vast as the two in this matchup...), but the problem still remains for their tempo-free team statistics.

Trying to divine accurately just how good Murray State could be is like trying to shoot a moving target in a room with no lights and no windows. Next to impossible. Nobody that is making predictions on this game has any clue, including myself. I cannot imagine how statistically powerful the Commodores would look if they had played such a schedule. Would their blocks have skyrocketed? (Yes) Would their scoring margin have skyrocketed? (Yes) Would their...you get the picture. Would they be prepared to play a team that is light-years ahead of any team they had played all season? Probably not.

And that fact remains. Murray State hasn't seen a team this season that looks like Vanderbilt does when they step off the bus. Period. And it's not as if Vanderbilt is without talent. The Commodores are a legit Top 20 team. They've proven themselves. Murray State hasn't proven anything other than how well they can beat up on a weak schedule.

Predictions and traditional stats after the jump...

Four Factors: As I mentioned, the team four factors are not adjusted for strength of schedule. Considering the disparity, this is a significant issue in this matchup. Vanderbilt controls unadjusted TO% and FTRate, while Murray St. easily bests Vanderbilt in unadjusted OReb% and eFG%. Prediction: If Vanderbilt wins OReb% and FTRate, I think they win the game barring Murray State shooting lights out.

Traditional Statistics - Murray St. Racers

			FG			3PT			FT			Rebounds			Misc
	G	M	M	A	Pct	M	A	Pct	M	A	Pct	Off	Def	Tot	Ast	TO	Stl	Blk	PF	PPG
Ivan Aska	34	22.8	4.3	7.2	59.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.0	3.2	63.9	1.7	3.2	4.9	0.7	1.8	0.8	0.3	2.1	10.6
B.J. Jenkins	34	25.6	3.5	7.9	44.2	1.9	4.9	37.7	1.7	2.1	79.2	0.4	2.1	2.5	3.2	1.6	1.8	0.2	2.0	10.5
Danero Thomas	34	26.7	4.0	9.4	42.6	1.1	3.4	32.5	1.3	2.1	62.5	1.6	2.6	4.2	2.5	1.5	1.7	0.6	2.1	10.4
Tony Easley	34	22.1	4.0	6.0	66.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.3	3.2	70.9	2.6	3.2	5.8	1.0	1.6	0.7	2.7	2.4	10.4
Isaiah Canaan	34	20.2	3.3	6.7	49.3	1.4	3.1	45.7	2.3	2.9	77.8	0.3	2.0	2.3	1.6	1.7	0.9	0.0	1.9	10.3
Issac Miles	34	26.5	3.1	6.6	46.5	1.2	3.4	35.9	2.1	2.7	76.3	0.6	2.1	2.7	3.8	2.1	1.2	0.1	1.6	9.5
Donte Poole	34	14.2	1.6	3.8	41.5	0.4	1.4	27.1	1.4	2.0	71.6	0.5	1.6	2.0	1.2	1.2	1.1	0.3	1.1	5.0
Jeffery McClain	34	16.6	1.1	2.1	55.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.6	2.2	69.7	1.6	2.6	4.2	0.6	0.9	0.8	0.2	1.6	3.9
Jewuan Long	29	11.7	1.2	2.3	52.2	0.2	0.5	35.7	0.8	1.0	78.6	0.2	1.0	1.2	0.9	0.7	0.7	0.0	0.8	3.3
Edward Daniel	30	10.4	1.0	2.1	50.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.9	1.6	55.3	1.0	1.7	2.6	0.2	0.9	0.4	0.8	1.0	2.9
AJ Wilson	21	4.2	0.7	1.0	75.0	0.0	0.0	100.0	0.2	0.4	50.0	0.4	0.9	1.3	0.0	0.4	0.0	0.4	0.4	1.7
Georges Fotso	21	4.9	0.2	0.5	40.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.6	58.3	0.5	0.4	0.9	0.1	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.7	0.7
Picasso Simmons	7	1.1	0.1	0.6	25.0	0.1	0.4	33.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.4
Jordan Burge	7	0.9	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.1	0.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Traditional Statistics - Vanderbilt Commodores

			FG			3PT			FT			Rebounds			Misc
	G	M	M	A	Pct	M	A	Pct	M	A	Pct	Off	Def	Tot	Ast	TO	Stl	Blk	PF	PPG
Jermaine Beal	32	32.3	4.8	11.1	43.8	2.2	5.8	37.6	2.8	3.5	79.5	0.2	2.3	2.5	3.2	1.5	1.0	0.0	1.4	14.7
A.J. Ogilvy	32	23.3	4.3	8.5	50.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	4.8	6.6	73.3	2.0	4.2	6.2	0.9	1.9	1.1	1.5	2.9	13.4
Jeffery Taylor	32	26.9	4.5	9.2	49.5	0.0	0.3	9.1	4.3	5.7	75.8	2.0	3.2	5.2	1.7	2.3	1.1	0.4	2.6	13.4
John Jenkins	30	22.7	3.5	7.5	46.9	2.3	4.9	47.9	1.6	1.9	81.0	0.3	1.9	2.2	0.9	0.8	0.4	0.2	1.1	10.9
Brad Tinsley	32	26.3	2.3	5.8	40.3	1.0	3.3	29.8	1.3	1.5	85.7	0.2	2.4	2.6	2.9	1.9	0.5	0.2	1.2	7.0
Andre Walker	31	24.7	2.6	4.6	55.9	0.1	0.1	50.0	0.9	1.3	67.5	1.9	3.5	5.5	2.4	1.7	0.9	0.9	2.9	6.1
Festus Ezeli	31	12.5	1.5	2.8	53.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.7	1.8	38.6	0.9	2.2	3.2	0.1	1.0	0.2	1.4	2.2	3.7
Steve Tchiengang	32	11.8	1.2	2.3	50.7	0.2	0.4	38.5	1.0	1.5	63.3	0.9	1.6	2.5	0.2	1.2	0.2	0.2	2.3	3.5
Lance Goulbourne	30	12.9	0.9	2.3	40.6	0.3	1.1	30.3	1.1	1.6	68.8	0.6	1.6	2.1	0.5	1.0	0.2	0.6	1.5	3.3
Darshawn McClellan	29	7.5	0.7	1.6	44.4	0.2	0.8	30.4	0.3	0.4	75.0	0.4	0.9	1.3	0.2	0.4	0.1	0.1	1.0	1.9
Charles Hinkle	10	4.8	0.5	1.3	38.5	0.3	1.0	30.0	0.1	0.2	50.0	0.1	0.4	0.5	0.2	0.5	0.2	0.0	1.1	1.4
Aaron Noll	8	1.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.5	0.5	100.0	0.3	0.4	0.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.5
Joe Duffy	8	2.6	0.0	0.8	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.3	0.3	100.0	0.0	0.4	0.4	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.0	0.1	0.3
Chris Meriweather	8	2.5	0.1	0.6	20.0	0.0	0.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3
Jordan Smart	10	2.7	0.0	0.6	0.0	0.0	0.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.5	0.6	0.4	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.1	0.0