Scouting Murray St. - Statistical Breakdown

At first glance, Murray State's individual stats are quite impressive. Issac Miles sweeps the PG slot in tempo free statistics over Jermaine Beal. Same with Ivan Aska over Andre Walker in the PF slot and Tony Easley over A.J. Ogilvy in the C slot. Jeffery Taylor is the only Commodore to sweep his opponent (Danero Thomas), with John Jenkins taking two of three against his evil doppelgänger B.J. Jenkins. Even the Murray State bench sweeps the Commodores. The doubt starts creeping into the back of your mind...

 

...then you realize that all the individual statistics are not adjusted for strength of schedule. Murray State's offensive and defensive efficiencies are adjusted (of course that begs the question of how well someone can devise a formula to accurately adjust for the disparity between strength of schedules as vast as the two in this matchup...), but the problem still remains for their tempo-free team statistics.

Trying to divine accurately just how good Murray State could be is like trying to shoot a moving target in a room with no lights and no windows. Next to impossible. Nobody that is making predictions on this game has any clue, including myself. I cannot imagine how statistically powerful the Commodores would look if they had played such a schedule. Would their blocks have skyrocketed? (Yes) Would their scoring margin have skyrocketed? (Yes) Would their...you get the picture. Would they be prepared to play a team that is light-years ahead of any team they had played all season? Probably not.

And that fact remains. Murray State hasn't seen a team this season that looks like Vanderbilt does when they step off the bus. Period. And it's not as if Vanderbilt is without talent. The Commodores are a legit Top 20 team. They've proven themselves. Murray State hasn't proven anything other than how well they can beat up on a weak schedule.

Predictions and traditional stats after the jump...

Four Factors: As I mentioned, the team four factors are not adjusted for strength of schedule. Considering the disparity, this is a significant issue in this matchup. Vanderbilt controls unadjusted TO% and FTRate, while Murray St. easily bests Vanderbilt in unadjusted OReb% and eFG%. Prediction: If Vanderbilt wins OReb% and FTRate, I think they win the game barring Murray State shooting lights out.

Traditional Statistics - Murray St. Racers


FG 3PT FT Rebounds Misc
G M M A Pct M A Pct M A Pct Off Def Tot Ast TO Stl Blk PF PPG
Ivan Aska 34 22.8 4.3 7.2 59.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 3.2 63.9 1.7 3.2 4.9 0.7 1.8 0.8 0.3 2.1 10.6
B.J. Jenkins 34 25.6 3.5 7.9 44.2 1.9 4.9 37.7 1.7 2.1 79.2 0.4 2.1 2.5 3.2 1.6 1.8 0.2 2.0 10.5
Danero Thomas 34 26.7 4.0 9.4 42.6 1.1 3.4 32.5 1.3 2.1 62.5 1.6 2.6 4.2 2.5 1.5 1.7 0.6 2.1 10.4
Tony Easley 34 22.1 4.0 6.0 66.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3 3.2 70.9 2.6 3.2 5.8 1.0 1.6 0.7 2.7 2.4 10.4
Isaiah Canaan 34 20.2 3.3 6.7 49.3 1.4 3.1 45.7 2.3 2.9 77.8 0.3 2.0 2.3 1.6 1.7 0.9 0.0 1.9 10.3
Issac Miles 34 26.5 3.1 6.6 46.5 1.2 3.4 35.9 2.1 2.7 76.3 0.6 2.1 2.7 3.8 2.1 1.2 0.1 1.6 9.5
Donte Poole 34 14.2 1.6 3.8 41.5 0.4 1.4 27.1 1.4 2.0 71.6 0.5 1.6 2.0 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.3 1.1 5.0
Jeffery McClain 34 16.6 1.1 2.1 55.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 2.2 69.7 1.6 2.6 4.2 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.2 1.6 3.9
Jewuan Long 29 11.7 1.2 2.3 52.2 0.2 0.5 35.7 0.8 1.0 78.6 0.2 1.0 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.8 3.3
Edward Daniel 30 10.4 1.0 2.1 50.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 1.6 55.3 1.0 1.7 2.6 0.2 0.9 0.4 0.8 1.0 2.9
AJ Wilson 21 4.2 0.7 1.0 75.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.2 0.4 50.0 0.4 0.9 1.3 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.4 1.7
Georges Fotso 21 4.9 0.2 0.5 40.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 58.3 0.5 0.4 0.9 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 0.7
Picasso Simmons 7 1.1 0.1 0.6 25.0 0.1 0.4 33.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.4
Jordan Burge 7 0.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


Traditional Statistics - Vanderbilt Commodores


FG 3PT FT Rebounds Misc
G M M A Pct M A Pct M A Pct Off Def Tot Ast TO Stl Blk PF PPG
Jermaine Beal 32 32.3 4.8 11.1 43.8 2.2 5.8 37.6 2.8 3.5 79.5 0.2 2.3 2.5 3.2 1.5 1.0 0.0 1.4 14.7
A.J. Ogilvy 32 23.3 4.3 8.5 50.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.8 6.6 73.3 2.0 4.2 6.2 0.9 1.9 1.1 1.5 2.9 13.4
Jeffery Taylor 32 26.9 4.5 9.2 49.5 0.0 0.3 9.1 4.3 5.7 75.8 2.0 3.2 5.2 1.7 2.3 1.1 0.4 2.6 13.4
John Jenkins 30 22.7 3.5 7.5 46.9 2.3 4.9 47.9 1.6 1.9 81.0 0.3 1.9 2.2 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.2 1.1 10.9
Brad Tinsley 32 26.3 2.3 5.8 40.3 1.0 3.3 29.8 1.3 1.5 85.7 0.2 2.4 2.6 2.9 1.9 0.5 0.2 1.2 7.0
Andre Walker 31 24.7 2.6 4.6 55.9 0.1 0.1 50.0 0.9 1.3 67.5 1.9 3.5 5.5 2.4 1.7 0.9 0.9 2.9 6.1
Festus Ezeli 31 12.5 1.5 2.8 53.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.8 38.6 0.9 2.2 3.2 0.1 1.0 0.2 1.4 2.2 3.7
Steve Tchiengang 32 11.8 1.2 2.3 50.7 0.2 0.4 38.5 1.0 1.5 63.3 0.9 1.6 2.5 0.2 1.2 0.2 0.2 2.3 3.5
Lance Goulbourne 30 12.9 0.9 2.3 40.6 0.3 1.1 30.3 1.1 1.6 68.8 0.6 1.6 2.1 0.5 1.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.3
Darshawn McClellan 29 7.5 0.7 1.6 44.4 0.2 0.8 30.4 0.3 0.4 75.0 0.4 0.9 1.3 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.1 1.0 1.9
Charles Hinkle 10 4.8 0.5 1.3 38.5 0.3 1.0 30.0 0.1 0.2 50.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.1 1.4
Aaron Noll 8 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 100.0 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5
Joe Duffy 8 2.6 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.3 100.0 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.3
Chris Meriweather 8 2.5 0.1 0.6 20.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
Jordan Smart 10 2.7 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0

 

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