Vanderbilt (24-8, 4-seed). There’s been a lot of complaining (rightfully) about the botched job the selection committee did with seedings this year. Few mis-seedings were more baffling than Vanderbilt, which certainly showed it can lose to inferior competition this season (lost to Georgia, South Carolina, Mississippi State, Western Kentucky). The Commodores aren’t getting a lot of run in the hour-to-hour conversation about the tournament, but they certainly fall in the overrated-due-to-seeding category. A 4? We’re still waiting for an explanation as to why this happened. Vanderbilt’s alpha dog, A.J. Ogilvy, has spent far too much time in the background and will need to flip the switch immediately. We love Murray State to upset Vandy in the early tip on Friday.

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/basketball/blog/the_dagger/post/Don-t-fall-for-em-The-five-most-overrated-team?urn=ncaab,228073

SUSPECT TEAM: Vanderbilt
None of the West’s top four seeds are fraudulent, but I’m curious as to why No. 4 Vandy doesn’t control the defensive glass more effectively despite having 6-11 A.J. Ogilvy, 6-11 Festus Ezeli, 6-9 Steve Tchiengang, and 6-7 Jeffery Taylor available up front. The ‘Dores rank 249th nationally in percentage of offensive boards allowed, at 34.4. That’s the ninth-worst percentage among NCAA tournament teams, and part of the reason why they don’t have an elite defense. Teams with big front lines such as Kentucky, Mississippi State and Georgia have given Vandy trouble, and UTEP might do the same.

Actually that’s a good point. AJ’s been giving up offensive boards like it’ll bring back his dead puppy this season.

6. Murray State won 30 of 34 games this season. The Racers could be a trendy pick to advance as a double-digit seed in the 13-4 game. The Racers have tremendous balance with five double-figure scorers. The problem is they’re playing a Vanderbilt team that has quality pieces for a mini-run, with balance inside (A.J. Ogilvy) and out (Jermaine Beal, John Jenkins and Jeffery Taylor). Vandy is too talented at key positions to lose in the first round. Right?

Treading on thin ice, Katz…is that a subtle slight?

In the 4-13 matchups, watch out for Murray State. The Racers have an experienced tourney coach, the requisite scoring margin, and the backcourt/frontcourt scoring balance to slay a giant.

Those are the Cinderella teams with the right numbers to pull off an upset. Are there any favored teams that show victim-like warning signs? Surprisingly, none of the six seeds have historical vulnerabilities. Among five seeds, however, Temple is offensively challenged enough to qualify as a victim — and, lo and behold, the Owls play Cornell in the first round. A similar victor/victim alignment can be seen in one of the 4-13 matchups. Vanderbilt has the requisite lack of experience to get toppled in Round 1. Their opponent? You guessed it: those pesky Murray State Racers.

Apparently shallow/quick/shoddy statistical analysis now qualifies as “science”…

Sweet 16 upsets: No. 4 Vanderbilt over No. 1 Syracuse

Thanks Mr. Schrager for actually doing a bit of analysis.

Grossly Overseeded: Vanderbilt, #4 seed, 24-8. A team that lost to Western Kentucky, Georgia, South Carolina and Mississippi State, none of whom are Tourney teams, should not have gotten a protected seed with only a couple of marquee wins this year.

Sweet Sixteen Sleeper (#12 seed or lower): UTEP. For the same reasons as above, once UTEP beats Butler, they will also be able to get past #4 Vanderbilt who is probably overseeded, or #13 Murray State, a team they’re simply better than.

Lock of the Year: Slot Syracuse into the Elite Eight. There isn’t anybody in their first three games who has the athleticism and ability to solve their zone defense or defend them well enough to outscore the Orange.

We Got Screwed: Vanderbilt, #4 seed, 24-8. Vandy was gifted with a #4 seed, so they really don’t have much of a right to complain. But Kevin Stallings cannot be happy about getting shipped 2,500 miles from home as a protected seed to play a team that many feel can spring the upset. Of course, if BYU makes the regionals in Salt Lake, then the three other remaining teams really got screwed.

Not high on Vandy, eh?

Most likely first-round upset
Vanderbilt did not look very good in the SEC Tournament, especially against Mississippi State. The fourth-seed Commodores could be taken out if they don’t use their size advantage to pound Murray inside.

If Vandy falls in love with the 3-pointer, it loses.

Ray – Vandy only uses the 3 pointer 30% of the time (3PA/FGA), 257th in the country. Try paying attention to this season and not basing your analysis on 2 or 3 years ago.

Mixed bag.

Both of the tourney videos “give us” one win and then have us upset by UTEP.

WEST REGION
BEST BETS
No. 4 Vanderbilt (34.3 vulnerability rating) vs. No. 13 Murray St. (94.5 Giant Killer rating)
UPSET CHANCE: 32.5 percent

Does Murray State actually exist, or is it simply the fervid invention of some chronicler of giant-slaying hoops legends — Jim Carroll, perhaps, or Dean Oliver? We believe the Racers are indeed real, but we’re rubbing our eyes, as they’ve posted the highest rating in GK history. Why? Start with the fact that they excel at seizing extra possessions whether they start with the ball (offensive rebounds on 39.5 percent of missed shots, 12th in the NCAA) or their opponents do (sixth in the country in steal percentage, leading to turnovers on 24.6 percent of opponent possessions, 11th). They’re efficient shooters, hitting more than 55 percent of 2-point attempts and more than 37 percent of 3s. And while they’re not big, they rank sixth in the nation in block percentage, helping limit opponents to just 41 percent shooting on 2-pointers. All told, the gap between Murray State’s effective FG percentage and its opponents’ is a whopping 11.5 points. Bonus: The Racers don’t rely on free throws, either, which, as we’ve often mentioned, is a common trait among historical Giant Killers. So while the Racers played a weak schedule and don’t protect the ball particularly well, they still have a profile unlike any we’ve seen. And in Vanderbilt, they’ve drawn an opponent that doesn’t generate turnovers (19.3 percent of opponent possessions, 243rd in the NCAA) and allows opponents second chances (offensive rebounds on 34.4 percent of missed shots, 249th). Maybe worst of all, 74 percent of the Commodores’ scoring margin comes from the free throw line. That’s the highest proportion among Giants, and a sign that Vandy can be dangerously easy for an underdog to neutralize, particularly in a loosely called game. If our model had a nose, it would be smelling history right about now.

ESPN – Insider

2:30 pm – #4 Vanderbilt vs. #13 Murray State (San Jose pod)

This matchup has Upset Alert written all over it. The only question is whether the fact that many people are picking against the #4 seeded Commodores will inspire them to bring their all in this game on Thursday afternoon. Because if Vandy is at all off their best game in this one, they will be going home early. There is nothing that Vandy does particularly well that Murray doesn’t also do. Both teams shoot the ball with consistency and confidence. Both teams have multiple scoring options in both the post and on the perimeter. The one area where VU holds an advantage is with their star center AJ Ogilvy, who brings 13/6 on 51% shooting to this game, but the problem that Jermaine Beal and John Jenkins will have involves getting him the ball. Murray State is one of the very best defenses in the nation in turning teams over, and Vandy can be sloppy with possessions at times. We also have concerns with picking the Commodores to win anywhere away from Nashville (and this year, even that was a dicey proposition with Ls to Western Kentucky, South Carolina, Kentucky and Mississippi State). Murray’s Danero Thomas, Isacc Miles, Ivan Aska and company spend all year hearing about the big, bad SEC; with Vandy located regionally not too far away, they’ll be exceptionally motivated for this one.

The Skinny: A spate of turnovers will ignite the Racer attack in the first half, and Vandy will spend the rest of the game unsuccessfully trying to come back.

I’d rather be accurate than trendy…

The 12-5 matchup is where most of the classic upsets happen, but while it’s tempting to go with UTEP, I think the Miners’ lack of discipline on offense will do them in against a Butler team that rarely turns the ball over. The better potential for a shocker is 13th-seeded Murray State over Vanderbilt. I’m not taking that one, but again, Vandy probably won’t get past the Sweet 16 anyway, so that’s a good chance to take. I believe winning is a habit, and the Racers won all but four games this season and at one point reeled off 17 straight wins.

Seth, we hardly knew ye. I liked you better when you had Vandy in your Top 10.

WEST

First round
1 Syracuse over 16 Vermont
9 Florida State over 8 Gonzaga
12 UTEP over 5 Butler
13 Murray State over 4 Vanderbilt
6 Xavier over 11 Minnesota
3 Pittsburgh over 14 Oakland
7 BYU over 10 Florida
2 Kansas State over 15 North Texas

ESPN College Basketball Blog

4. UTEP will play Syracuse in the Sweet 16. And just how will they do that? By beating Butler in the first round and the winner of Vanderbilt-Murray State in the second. UTEP, like its first-round counterparts, are probably a bit better than their resume, and their resume is good. What’s more, they’re a tough matchup for Butler, whose lack of front-court depth could really struggle with the likes of Derrick Caracter and center Arnett Moultrie. After that small matter of business is concluded, the Miners will face a relatively forgiving No. 4 seed in Vanderbilt, a team that actually ranks behind the Miners in adjusted efficiency. It’s one of the easier roads for any No. 12 seed into the Sweet Sixteen, and I think UTEP forges it.

ESPN College Basketball Blog

Tisk, tisk tisk. Picks Murray St. over Vandy in the first round.