Scouting Murray St. - Schedule Breakdown
by KingJamesIV on Mar 15, 2010 1:34 PM EDT
in Basketball
14 comments
I'm breaking down the traditional periscope post into multiple entries. First up, Schedule Breakdown.
In looking at who each team has played, it's easy to see how ludicrous the "upset lock" truly is. Murray State has played virtually nobody of consequence, at least according to Ken Pomeroy. Vanderbilt will be the second best offensive team that Murray State will have played this year, behind Cal. Vanderbilt will also be the toughest defensive team that Murray State will have played this year, which really illustrates the fact that Murray St. has played some awful teams. By the averages, Murray State has played teams that only score .984 points per possession (Vanderbilt scores 1.14 ppp) and give up 1.048 points per possession (Vandy gives up 0.941). Hands down, Vanderbilt will be the best team they've faced all season. The only opponent that closely resembles Vanderbilt (at least in terms of offensive and defensive efficiencies) is Cal, a team to whom they lost back in November. You know the Racers are battle tested with that 289th ranked SOS. Oh wait. Morehead St. was the second best team Murray St. has played all season. Read that again. Murray St. also enjoyed 7 games against teams ranked 300+ by Kenpom, and 15 games against teams ranked 200-299. In all, they played 4 games against teams in the top 100, 3 of which were Morehead St. (the other, again, Cal). There's a reason why coaches want to play tough schedules: it helps them prepare their teams for the tough opponents they will face in the NCAA Tournament. Now, that's not to say that Murray St. didn't want to schedule more difficult teams than they did (complaints about midmajor scheduling difficulties are not lost on me, though it's neither the time or the place for that discussion now). Unfortunately, they played a weak schedule, and it will be difficult for them to be fully prepared for the matchup against the Commodores (though certainly not impossible).
Vanderbilt on the other hand has faced many teams of equal strength or better. According to Kenpom, Murray St. will be the 15th best offensive team and the 9th best defensive team that the Commodores will have played this season. Above average but hardly "better than every other team they've played this season" as was the case with Murray St.
Bottom line: it's a shame that none of these prognosticators have salaries based on how accurate they are at filling in their bracket. There's a reason why Vanderbilt opened at -4.5 on a neutral floor.
Schedule Breakdown Advantage - Vanderbilt by a wide margin.
Next up: Statistical Breakdown of the rosters
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Common Opponents:
Vanderbilt:
vs. Western Kentucky – L 69-76
vs. Tennessee State – W 84-71
Murray State:
vs. Western Kentucky – L 72-83
vs. Tennessee State – W 80-59
vs. Tennessee State – W 84-51
They’ve definitely perfected the art of beating up TSU better than Vandy has. But yeah, they clearly haven’t dealt with a team like Vanderbilt this season – especially defensively.
Margin of Victory
Stallings is not one to run up the score on anyone. As soon as he thinks the game is in hand, the bench is cleared.
That is, of course, not to say that Murray St. was being unsporting to run up the score…midmajors have to run up the score whenever they can so that they can make up for poor SOS statistically.
Stallings can sacrifice victory margin for playing time for his bench because it really doesn’t hurt the team at all.
No demerits there.
As I recall, you can go to jail for point-shaving. =)
Nevertheless, our willingness to trade margin of victory for bench PT will be very much in our favor now that March is here, and I think that’s the #1 reason all this “upset lock” talk is bunk. Although if it motivates the boys to come out and beat the very living evangelical Baptist HELL out of the Racers…well, whatever it takes.
"Well, if that ain't a show, I'll kiss your ass." - Gov. Jim Folsom Sr. (D-AL), 1948-52
Agreed
You can’t glean much from the common opponents through margin of victory, especially in blowouts, but it’s interesting that both teams had trouble against WKU.
by Train Island on Mar 15, 2010 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Same old story...
I seem to recall being the upset lock as a 6 seed in 2007…definitely in 2004, in fact, because Boob (sic) Ryan of the Boston Globe thought our lineup was too white.
Almost all of the talk stems from the fact that the team, quite frankly, did crap the bed against Siena in ‘08 (down 12 at the half and lost by 21). But I don’t see this team quitting on anything, especially since it’s built to play smashmouth OR run and gun OR pretty much any other way you want to play.
Let ‘em talk. I say once these guys have smacked into Steve, Festus and AJ for a half, we’ll switch it up and let them run and gun against Dolla, John Legend and Son of Sam once they’re gassed out.
"Well, if that ain't a show, I'll kiss your ass." - Gov. Jim Folsom Sr. (D-AL), 1948-52
Agreed
Anytime all the experts are predicting a Murray State/UTEP round of 32, expect to see Vandy/Butler on Saturday
www.DorePosts.com
comparing Vandy's post season opponents
Compare some of Vandy’s recent NCAA opponents based on the resumes and Murray State looks less like Siena, who was battle tested, and more like Western Michigan, who was decidedly not: http://kl.am/8JA4
Murray State is a solid team and knows how to win—and anything can happen in March; but one would think If Vandy shows up, they should win. Based on the last few weeks, however, that may be a big if.
The one biggest difference about this post-season
Is that Vandy showed that it can win tough games away from Memorial, at least during SEC play – although wins at St. Mary’s and Mizzou are nice too. I think even if we faced that Siena squad against Vandy would win easily because they’ve shown a different attitude on the road.
Well, maybe not win easily, since this team doesn’t really do that (bad habit of playing down to opponents), but you get the idea.
by Train Island on Mar 15, 2010 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Mizzou was at home ...
but the point is still valid. Wins at St. Mary’s, Tennessee (their only home loss), Florida, etc. We can play.
Touche
Must have been thinking about Illinois instead. Good call.
by Train Island on Mar 16, 2010 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions
K Stall
Needs to find away to get john more than one shot in the first half unlike the mississippi state debacle
Guys!
Don’t take this game too lightly. They like to run,but can spread the floor. They are athletic and long. If they are hitting on all cylinders they are a hand full. Good Luck!
Happy Days are here again The sky is all ways BLUE again Happy days are here again !
No shit?
Any team hitting on all cylinders is a handful. We can take this game as lightly as we want and it will not make a bit of a difference on Thursday. Kentucky’s non-alumni stalker fans might not understand that players play while fans cheer, but I assure you that nothing written on this board will make a bit of difference on Thursday afternoon.
As for the game itself, it’s impossible to evaluate accurately a team that won over half of its games against RPI 200+ or non-D1 teams. DeMatha High School plays a tougher schedule than Murray State. If we were playing DeMatha, I’m sure many experts would pick them to win as well. Murray St. has not lost in 2010, while Vandy has dropped two of three to non-NCAA Tournament teams. The Racers are the trendy pick, but I don’t think they match-up well against us. Of course they could win this game, but I’d much rather play them than Siena.
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