Definitive Bracket

by BrianSWard on Mar 14, 2010 1:48 AM EST

Ok, so I figured if everyone else can do it, so can I! Crunched some numbers ... did some sanity-checking ... and came up with a ridiculously accurate bracket for y'all.

1. Minnesota and Mississippi State are currently out. If they win tomorrow, Virginia Tech and Oklahoma State will suffer for it.

2. Duke is not a #1 seed. Blame their pathetic road record. West Virginia gets the fourth #1 by virtue of their Big East tournament win.

3. Vanderbilt and Tennessee are #20 and #21 in the straight numbers S-curve. Given some obvious overratings, both move up to a 4 seed (#14 and #15 respectively).

4. Without a Mississippi State upset, the SEC has 3 teams dancing.

5. Kent State is the highest ranked team in the straight numbers S-curve to be left out of the dance.

The bracket appears magically after the jump ...

	St. Louis	Houston	Syracuse	Salt Lake City
1	Kansas #1	Syracuse #3	Kentucky #2	West Virginia #4
2	Pittsburgh	Kansas State	Georgetown	Duke
3	Purdue	Ohio State	Temple	Villanova
4	Butler	Tennessee	Wisconsin	Vanderbilt
5	New Mexico	Maryland	Baylor	Texas A&M
6	Northern Iowa	Richmond	Brigham Young	Michigan State
7	Xavier	Marquette	California	Gonzaga
8	St. Mary's	Texas	Georgia Tech	UNLV
9	Florida State	San Diego State	Notre Dame	Clemson
10	Louisville	UTEP	Utah State	Siena
11	Oklahoma State	Wake Forest	Missouri	Old Dominion
12	Murray State	Washington	Virginia Tech	Cornell
13	Oakland	New Mexico State	Wofford	Ohio
14	North Texas	Vermont	Houston	Sam Houston State
15	Morgan State	Robert Morris	UCSB	Montana
16	Arkansas Pine Bluff	Lehigh	South Dakota	East Tennessee State
16	Winthrop			Updated 16:01 EDT

And for your edification, here's the S-Curve.

S-STAT = the straight numbers
(based on rough normalization of Tournament criteria, normalization determined based on the top 100 RPI teams)
S-S-CURVE = the S-Curve, based on the straight numbers
S-SEED = the projected seed, based on the straight numbers
BSW-SEED = the modified seed, after sanity check
BSW-S-CURVE = the modified S-Curve, after the sanity check

Team	S-STAT	S-S-CURVE	S-SEED	BSW-SEED	BSW-S-SCURVE
Kansas	11.15	1	1	1	1
Kentucky	10.75	5	2	1	2
Syracuse	10.78	4	1	1	3
West Virginia	10.81	2	1	1	4
Duke	10.79	3	1	2	5
Kansas State	10.52	7	2	2	6
Georgetown	10.35	11	3	2	7
Pittsburgh	10.36	10	3	2	8
Purdue	10.31	12	3	3	9
Ohio State	10.02	23	6	3	10
Villanova	10.21	16	4	3	11
Temple	10.55	6	2	3	12
Butler	10.28	13	4	4	13
Vanderbilt	10.08	20	5	4	14
Tennessee	10.04	21	6	4	15
Wisconsin	10.03	22	6	4	16
New Mexico	10.42	8	2	5	17
Baylor	10.37	9	3	5	18
Maryland	10.24	14	4	5	19
Texas A&M	10.23	15	4	5	20
Richmond	10.09	18	5	6	21
BYU	9.94	28	7	6	22
Northern Iowa	10.08	19	5	6	23
Michigan State	9.91	29	8	6	24
Xavier	10.10	17	5	7	25
California	9.85	33	9	7	26
Marquette	9.81	36	9	7	27
Gonzaga	9.87	31	8	7	28
Saint Mary's College	9.96	26	7	8	29
Georgia Tech	9.72	39	10	8	30
UNLV	9.75	38	10	8	31
Texas	9.72	40	10	8	32
Florida State	9.82	34	9	9	33
Notre Dame	9.71	42	11	9	34
Clemson	9.87	32	8	9	35
San Diego State	9.96	25	7	9	36
Louisville	9.71	41	11	10	37
UTEP	9.96	27	7	10	38
Utah State	10.01	24	6	10	39
Siena	9.81	37	10	10	40
Wake Forest	9.82	35	9	11	41
Missouri	9.57	49	x	11	42
Oklahoma State	9.65	47	12	11	43
Old Dominion	9.89	30	8	11	44
Cornell	9.67	45	12	12	45
Washington	9.69	44	11	12	46
Virginia Tech	9.60	48	x	12	47
Murray State	9.54	53	13	12	48
Oakland	9.55	51	12	13	49
New Mexico State	9.47	58	13	13	50
Wofford	9.45	63	13	13	51
Ohio	9.07	92	14	13	52
Sam Houston State	9.17	85	13	14	53
Houston	8.85	103	15	14	54
Vermont	8.89	102	15	14	55
North Texas	8.99	97	14	14	56
Morgan State	9.02	95	14	15	57
UCSB	8.98	99	14	15	58
Robert Morris	8.82	105	15	15	59
Montana	8.83	104	15	15	60
East Tennessee State	8.78	106	16	16	61
Lehigh	8.64	107	16	16	62
South Dakota	8.59	109	16	16	63
Arkansas Pine Bluff	8.60	108	16	16	64
Winthrop	8.58	110	16	16	65
Kent State	9.69	43	11	x	x
Seton Hall	9.66	46	12	x	x
Rhode Island	9.56	50	x	x	x
UAB	9.54	52	x	x	x
William & Mary	9.53	54	x	x	x
Wichita State	9.52	55	x	x	x
Marshall	9.49	56	x	x	x
Memphis	9.48	57	x	x	x
Florida	9.47	59	x	x	x
Minnesota	9.47	60	x	x	x
Arizona State	9.46	61	x	x	x
Mississippi State	9.45	62	x	x	x
Ole Miss	9.45	64	x	x	x

Darkest shadowing (Virginia Tech) is the one team that's still at risk. Minnesota would take their spot, but probably not their seed ...

Medium shadowing are automatic bids ...

Light shadowing are at large bids ...

No shadowing means S.O.L. ...

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Comments

always good stuff

But I do look forward to the prospect of mocking you relentlessly after selection sunday :).

by Train Island on Mar 14, 2010 3:54 AM EST via mobile reply actions

that's my favorite part, too!

WVA actually has the second best resume, after KU, when the numbers are crunched. But, sanity tells me that UK and SU will clearly be ahead of their 6 losses.

by BrianSWard on Mar 14, 2010 2:21 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Minor updates

Mississippi State – out. Sorry Dawgs. I hate having just 3 teams from the conference in back-to-back seasons … just glad that seeding will be a LOT better for those three teams this year.

Duke – nice win, but not enough. WVU gets the #1.

Temple? I’m guessing they switch with Butler and take the last 3 seed … but don’t really want to take the time to figure out exactly how it happens.

by BrianSWard on Mar 14, 2010 3:43 PM EDT reply actions

Congratulations are in order.

Joe Lunardi did awful, by the way. Pathetic, really. Almost as bad as me. Here are the official Bracket Project results … (I’m not on there, because I didn’t actually play.)

by BrianSWard on Mar 15, 2010 12:58 PM EDT reply actions