FanPost

Definitive Bracket

Ok, so I figured if everyone else can do it, so can I!  Crunched some numbers ... did some sanity-checking ... and came up with a ridiculously accurate bracket for y'all. 

1. Minnesota and Mississippi State are currently out.  If they win tomorrow, Virginia Tech and Oklahoma State will suffer for it. 

2. Duke is not a #1 seed.  Blame their pathetic road record.  West Virginia gets the fourth #1 by virtue of their Big East tournament win. 

3. Vanderbilt and Tennessee are #20 and #21 in the straight numbers S-curve.  Given some obvious overratings, both move up to a 4 seed (#14 and #15 respectively).

4. Without a Mississippi State upset, the SEC has 3 teams dancing. 

5. Kent State is the highest ranked team in the straight numbers S-curve to be left out of the dance.

The bracket appears magically after the jump ...

  St. Louis Houston Syracuse Salt Lake City
1 Kansas #1 Syracuse #3 Kentucky #2 West Virginia #4
2 Pittsburgh Kansas State Georgetown Duke
3 Purdue Ohio State Temple Villanova
4 Butler Tennessee Wisconsin Vanderbilt
5 New Mexico Maryland Baylor Texas A&M
6 Northern Iowa Richmond Brigham Young Michigan State
7 Xavier Marquette California Gonzaga
8 St. Mary's Texas Georgia Tech UNLV
9 Florida State San Diego State Notre Dame Clemson
10 Louisville UTEP Utah State Siena
11 Oklahoma State Wake Forest Missouri Old Dominion
12 Murray State Washington Virginia Tech Cornell
13 Oakland New Mexico State Wofford Ohio
14 North Texas Vermont Houston Sam Houston State
15 Morgan State Robert Morris UCSB Montana
16 Arkansas Pine Bluff Lehigh South Dakota East Tennessee State
16 Winthrop      Updated 16:01 EDT

 

 And for your edification, here's the S-Curve. 

S-STAT = the straight numbers
  (based on rough normalization of Tournament criteria, normalization determined based on the top 100 RPI teams)
S-S-CURVE = the S-Curve, based on the straight numbers
S-SEED = the projected seed, based on the straight numbers
BSW-SEED = the modified seed, after sanity check
BSW-S-CURVE = the modified S-Curve, after the sanity check

Team S-STAT S-S-CURVE S-SEED BSW-SEED BSW-S-SCURVE
Kansas 11.15 1 1 1 1
Kentucky 10.75 5 2 1 2
Syracuse 10.78 4 1 1 3
West Virginia 10.81 2 1 1 4
Duke 10.79 3 1 2 5
Kansas State 10.52 7 2 2 6
Georgetown 10.35 11 3 2 7
Pittsburgh 10.36 10 3 2 8
Purdue 10.31 12 3 3 9
Ohio State 10.02 23 6 3 10
Villanova 10.21 16 4 3 11
Temple 10.55 6 2 3 12
Butler 10.28 13 4 4 13
Vanderbilt 10.08 20 5 4 14
Tennessee 10.04 21 6 4 15
Wisconsin 10.03 22 6 4 16
New Mexico 10.42 8 2 5 17
Baylor 10.37 9 3 5 18
Maryland 10.24 14 4 5 19
Texas A&M 10.23 15 4 5 20
Richmond 10.09 18 5 6 21
BYU 9.94 28 7 6 22
Northern Iowa 10.08 19 5 6 23
Michigan State 9.91 29 8 6 24
Xavier 10.10 17 5 7 25
California 9.85 33 9 7 26
Marquette 9.81 36 9 7 27
Gonzaga 9.87 31 8 7 28
Saint Mary's College 9.96 26 7 8 29
Georgia Tech 9.72 39 10 8 30
UNLV 9.75 38 10 8 31
Texas 9.72 40 10 8 32
Florida State 9.82 34 9 9 33
Notre Dame 9.71 42 11 9 34
Clemson 9.87 32 8 9 35
San Diego State 9.96 25 7 9 36
Louisville 9.71 41 11 10 37
UTEP 9.96 27 7 10 38
Utah State 10.01 24 6 10 39
Siena 9.81 37 10 10 40
Wake Forest 9.82 35 9 11 41
Missouri 9.57 49 x 11 42
Oklahoma State 9.65 47 12 11 43
Old Dominion 9.89 30 8 11 44
Cornell 9.67 45 12 12 45
Washington 9.69 44 11 12 46
Virginia Tech 9.60 48 x 12 47
Murray State 9.54 53 13 12 48
Oakland 9.55 51 12 13 49
New Mexico State 9.47 58 13 13 50
Wofford 9.45 63 13 13 51
Ohio 9.07 92 14 13 52
Sam Houston State 9.17 85 13 14 53
Houston 8.85 103 15 14 54
Vermont 8.89 102 15 14 55
North Texas 8.99 97 14 14 56
Morgan State 9.02 95 14 15 57
UCSB 8.98 99 14 15 58
Robert Morris 8.82 105 15 15 59
Montana 8.83 104 15 15 60
East Tennessee State 8.78 106 16 16 61
Lehigh 8.64 107 16 16 62
South Dakota 8.59 109 16 16 63
Arkansas Pine Bluff 8.60 108 16 16 64
Winthrop 8.58 110 16 16 65
Kent State 9.69 43 11 x x
Seton Hall 9.66 46 12 x x
Rhode Island 9.56 50 x x x
UAB 9.54 52 x x x
William & Mary 9.53 54 x x x
Wichita State 9.52 55 x x x
Marshall 9.49 56 x x x
Memphis 9.48 57 x x x
Florida 9.47 59 x x x
Minnesota 9.47 60 x x x
Arizona State 9.46 61 x x x
Mississippi State 9.45 62 x x x
Ole Miss 9.45 64 x x x

Darkest shadowing (Virginia Tech) is the one team that's still at risk.  Minnesota would take their spot, but probably not their seed ...

Medium shadowing are automatic bids ...

Light shadowing are at large bids ...  

No shadowing means S.O.L. ...

FanPosts are most often submitted by users. The views and opinions expressed in FanPosts do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions held by the editorial staff of The Anchor of Gold or SB Nation. Unless they are awesome.

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