Will anything other than a SEC Tournament Championship improve Vandy's seeding/ranking?
This week's SEC Tournament draw has been seen as a blessing for the Commodores. With the number two spot in the East locked up, they're sure to avoid the SEC's best teams until a potential match-up in the league finals. If favorites hold serve in the tournament, Vandy would face Arkansas/Georgia and then Mississippi State before taking on Kentucky - and most pundits predict that the 'Dores will make it there with ease. However, though having an easier path to the finals is helpful, if Vanderbilt can't win it all, it might all be for nothing.
Beating teams in the SEC's middle tier hasn't done much for Vanderbilt's ranking in 2010. Despite their 12-4 SEC record, their only significant jumps/slides in the standings have come after wins against Tennessee or losses to unranked teams like Georgia and South Carolina. Beating bubble teams like Mississippi and Florida on the road have done little to boost this team's credibility in the Coaches' eyes. Let's look at the poll over the past six weeks:
| Week | Result | Coaches' Poll |
| 12 | Def No. 14 Tennessee 85-76, Lost to No. 1 Kentucky 85-72 | +3 |
| 13 | Def Mississippi State 75-72, Lost to Georgia 72-58 | -4 |
| 14 | Def No. 12 Tennessee 90-71, Def LSU 77-69 | +4 |
| 15 | Def. Mississippi 82-78, Lost to Kentucky 56-58 | -1 |
| 16 | Def. Georgia 96-94, Def. Arkansas 89-72 | +1 |
| 17 | Def Florida 64-60, Lost to South Carolina 77-73 | -4 |
While the drops in week 13 and 17 drop are understandable, it's apparent that the voters in the Coaches' poll don't hold SEC wins in high regard unless they come against the conference's elite. Wins against Mississippi State and Florida help balance out losses to South Carolina and Georgia in the fans' eyes, but the pollsters clearly don't see it that way. Losses to Kentucky aren't as destructive, but in a week where the 'Dores went on the road and beat a team that needed a marquee victory and then lost a heartbreaker to the #2 Wildcats, they were still dropped a spot in the rankings.
This provides evidence that even if Vanderbilt cruises past Arkansas/Georgia and Mississippi State on the way to a close loss in the Conference Finals, they could still watch their stock drop in the Coaches' Poll. The two opening games won't give the 'Dores much, if anything, in terms of a resume booster, and it stands to reason that unless they take home the SEC Championship trophy on Sunday, they'll be looking at a 5/6 seed in the NCAA Tournament instead of a 3/4.
In terms of seeding, though the selection committee isn't made up of pollsters from the ESPN/USA Today Top 25, it does consist of Athletic Directors and Commissioners from universities and conferences across America. It's not a stretch to think that their lines of reasoning would sway closer to the coaches' rather than the Associated Press. If this is the case, then Vanderbilt's conference transgressions could cost them big time on Selection Sunday.
As if the SEC Tournament wasn't important enough in the first place, the Commodores now have to know that this is an all-or-nothing affair. There are no moral victories in a bracket where a 2-1 record only proves that they can't get it done when it counts the most. Vanderbilt will have to leave the Bridgestone Arena with a trophy in their hands and the nets in their back pockets, or face the wrath of the selection committee come Sunday night. Anything less than a championship has to be considered a disappointment.
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Nice, well thought-out post, but .......
I don’t think the coaches poll has any relevance whatsoever to tournament seeding. It’s really worthless, other than the publicity factor. (And, I would say that if they had us in the top 12!)
Well..
You can make the argument that nationally the perception is that those wins over SEC teams ranked 4-7 carry little worth. The Coaches’ poll is just the primary example of it. Obviously the Selection committee will give the team a higher seed than correlates with their ranking, but I don’t think it will be going up unless Vandy wins the SEC Tournament. If they just go 2-1, it’s at best a neutral transaction for them.
by Train Island on Mar 11, 2010 3:20 PM EST up reply actions
2-1 or worse
Can’t discount a team getting hot and knocking them out early. Gotta show Georgia some respect if they can get past Arkansas, the run to the Finals is by no means a lock.
by Train Island on Mar 11, 2010 3:22 PM EST up reply actions
I love the post. I think you’re a little conservative on the seeding. I think a win over Georgia tomorrow gets us out of the 6 spot. Then its a 4/5 unless a tourney victory. 3 for a title. I have said this before, but I think I’d rather have a 6 over a 4/5.
www.DorePosts.com
By all means, go on
Or link to your explanation. Obviously there’s a lot of thought behind us – hit me up!
by Train Island on Mar 12, 2010 2:13 AM EST up reply actions
You give me too much credit with "a lot of thought"
I’m hoping for a trip to the Elite Eight. To get there I would rather be a 6 than a 4/5. Some my disagree, but I really fear the top seeds for some reason, especially Kansas. Two paths to Elite Eight based on current ESPN projections:
4 Seed
Murray State
Maryland
Syracuse
6 seed
Utah State
New Mexico
West Virginia
I know its all about the specific draw, but a 3/6 seeds keeps Vandy away from a possible horrific Sweet 16 match-up. Also, I have no stats to back this up, but I think more 2-seeds potentially lose in the second round. So there’s a chance Vandy could face off against a 7-seed in the Sweet 16. Maybe I’m wrong, wouldn’t be the first time.
www.DorePosts.com
Flawed Logic
I do not think there is much of a difference between a 3/4/5/6 seed – with maybe a slight benefit depending on the specific 14-seed. If we were talking a possible 1-2 seed vs. a 3-4-5 seed, then I think this argument would have more merit. But after you eliminate the 15-16 seeds, it is all about matchups. Just ask Shan Foster.
The only reason I favor a 3/6 seed at this point is that I think Kansas, Kentucky, and Syracuce (if Onuaku is healthy) are a notch above the rest of the teams – even if there is not as much separation as in many years. After that, however, it is a crapshoot. Hell, if we end up as a 4/5 in the same region with Duke as a 1, I would be very pleased.
Word.
If we’re a 4/5 in the same region with Duke or a non-Onuakued Syracuse, I’ll be thrilled.
If we’re a 3 in the same region with them, I’ll be more thrilled.

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