SEC Coach of the Year
by vanalyst on Feb 22, 2010 5:44 PM EST
9 comments
After the loss to Kentucky, I heard a number of national sports radio hosts discuss how John Calipari could be the national Coach of the Year. Calipari is an excellent recruiter and damn good motivator (components of a good coach), but he should not be national coach of the year. But, I quickly realized the velocity that this message began to circulate throughout sports circles. So, I thought I would use a test sample of SEC East programs to determine who would be the best coach in the division. The winner is Kevin Stallings.
In the SEC East, there are (as of February 22nd) four teams with a winning league record. The starting five players on each of these teams were assigned a recruiting rank by our friends at Rivals.com. The rank was given as a comparative number to peers within that same graduation year. In (), you will see the average rank of the Rivals.com starting five per team. Here is the breakdown for the SEC East starting lineups on February 20th:
| Kentucky (17) | Class | Rivals Rank |
| Wall | 2009 | 1 |
| Bledsoe | 2009 | 23 |
| Miller | 2008 | 42 |
| Patterson | 2007 | 17 |
| Cousins | 2009 | 2 |
| Vanderbilt (85) | ||
| Beal | 2006 | 87 |
| Tinsley | 2008 | 94 |
| Taylor | 2008 | 52 |
| Walker | 2007 | 150 |
| Ogilvy | 2007 | 41 |
| Tennessee (72) | ||
| Maze | 2006 | 150 |
| Goins | 2007 | 150 |
| Hopson | 2008 | 5 |
| Prince | 2005 | 21 |
| Chism | 2006 | 34 |
| Florida (44) | ||
| Walker | 2008 | 102 |
| Boynton | 2009 | 12 |
| Parsons | 2007 | 19 |
| Tyus | 2007 | 50 |
| Macklin | 2006 | 37 |
My calculation uses this ranking as a foundation for the player effectiveness. For example, John Wall was the #1 player in 2009, so he receives a value of 150. Demarcus Cousins was the #2 player in 2009, so he receives a value of 149. For a player that was not ranked by Rivals.com, they are assigned a value of 1. In measuring this calculation, one must factor in the productivity of a player. For example, a Freshman should not be as effective as a Senior due to the level of experience. So, I calculated an experience coefficient to measure the ability of a recruit at any point in their career. Senior's are assigned the highest productivity marks within the coefficient which helps weight experience with JUCO transfers. Save boring you with the details, the (+/-) of 2009-2010 season outcomes to date based on recruit rankings are:
Stallings, +3.587
Pearl, +.8575
Calipari, +.787
Donovan, -1.220
From this outcome, you could assess that Kevin Stallings has done more with his players than any other coach in the SEC East. Since the SEC West sucks (with all due respect, you too Mrs. Stansberry), I didn't waste my time.
In summary, Calipari can obviously recruit and should deserve bonus points for his ability to get recruits. But a storied basketball tradition does as much to draw recruits as a coach (ie. Notre Dame football). To me, the Coach of the Year is someone who gets the most out of his recruits to perform. So far this year in the SEC, it is Kevin Stallings.
As a disclaimer, I currently pay student loans every month that paid for a degree from Vanderbilt University. This either makes me a "homer", or a stereotypical nerd that can efficiently use analytics to accurately predict the outcome of a qualitative assessment by voters.
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This is Great
Nice way to break things down. I am a Vandy homer as well. I think the stats support your argument.
On the flip side, its hard to put numbers to things like: “Getting the most of Cousins, who might lose his head at any moment” and “Motivate John Wall to get better instead of dreaming of NBA money” and “Get Bledsoe to realize this will be his team next year and play for a title”
As much as I love Vandy, I might give it to Calipari anyway. To be able to manage egos, expectations, and give minutes to bench players who were starting last year, its an incredible juggling act.
Regardless, amazing breakdown, which gives Stallings the credit he deserves.
www.DorePosts.com
Great post...
Unfortunately, these awards are little more than beauty pageants, and Kevin Stallings will lose that every time to Coach Cal.
Garnet and Black Attack: A Blog by and for Gamecocks Fans.
Agree.
Stallings is doing more with less, but it’s rare that a coach wins a COY award without winning a regular season title, conference tournament, or makes a strong push in the Tournament. The last two are still within CKS’s sights, of course. We’ll see.
Calipari more than likely wins based on the restoration project and unbelievable turnaround in comparison to the last two Kentucky teams. Talent helps, of course, but that’s a pretty steep accomplishment that only the most delusional Cats fan thought would be possible before the season started.
Anything but Gatorade - yet another SEC sports blog
by Anything but Gatorade on Feb 23, 2010 3:40 PM EST up reply actions
One slight problem
I have one problem with this system of statistical analysis.
a Freshman should not be as effective as a Senior due to the level of experience. So, I calculated an experience coefficient to measure the ability of a recruit at any point in their career.
In a perfect world where everything works as its supposed to, this would be true. However, its ridiculous to say freshmen as a whole aren’t as productive as seniors. It may be true in a lot of cases, but by no means does that statement apply to every freshman and senior. This doesn’t account for a major dropoff in ability from one year to the next or major improvement in ability. I know there are freshmen out there who are 2 or 3 times more productive than many seniors. In the overall scheme of things this may be true, but there’s just too much variability to apply this method to every player.
by Silentthunder89 on Feb 23, 2010 4:18 PM EST reply actions
Thank you for all of your comments
In response to silentthunder, you are exactly correct when it comes to some freshmen being more productive than seniors. That is why I didn’t rank the players, I just calculated the potential as it applies to the estimates created by Rivals. If I adjust each effectiveness for every player regardless of class, I would be double counting for their ability. For instance, despite being a Freshman, John Wall is still individually ranked higher than Senior Jermaine Beal inclusive of the experience coefficient. This is because the foundation of the “ability” was already ranked by Rivals (#1 and #87, respectively). So even though a Senior should be more productive than a Freshman, not all Seniors will be ranked higher than their Freshman counterparts.
Coach Cal will likely get the award, but I think Stallings has accomplished more with the abilities he puts on the floor.
SNAP!
All you Kentucky fans who think Calipari should win COY need to look at your roster: 4 potential Top 15 NBA Draft picks.
College Basketball Coaching
is 90% recruiting. Therefore, might as well give the award to the best recruiter. Congrats, Calipari.
You wanna win in college b-ball? Get the best players. Just ask Roy Williams right now. Or Billy Donavan the last couple years. Or, hell, K-Stall. Funny how their coaching improves during the years they have elite players.
Yes, you have to coach them when you get them…a little bit. Nothing you can’t learn over a decade of working your way up the coaching ladder. But when you get a great player or two, you just get the hell out of the way, right Jimmy “Carmelo Anthony” Boeheim? (NOTE: I do think Boeheim is one of the best coaches (especially tournament coaches) out there – that 2-3 zone is magic – but even he struggles when he can’t get the good players)
"And with the 15th pick, the Tennessee Titans select..."
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