Blogpoll: Week 6 Initial AOG Ballot
by KingJamesIV on Oct 4, 2010 9:00 AM EDT
in Vanderbilt Commodores Football
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PrintSo apparently I completely missed the email earlier this season with instructions on how to login and participate in the 2010 Blogpoll. Here's how it works, by Monday morning I'm supposed to post a draft ballot on AOG. We've got until Wednesday to hash it out, and then after getting any reader input, I'm supposed to update my ballot with any changes.
I wish there were something like this for college basketball, as I feel like my personal knowledge is better suited for college hoops. If you think it's off, please don't hesitate to speak up in the comments.
Anchor of Gold Ballot - Week 6
| Rank | Team | Delta |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alabama Crimson Tide | -- |
| 2 | Oklahoma Sooners | -- |
| 3 | Boise St. Broncos | -- |
| 4 | LSU Tigers | -- |
| 5 | Florida Gators | -- |
| 6 | Oregon Ducks | -- |
| 7 | Ohio St. Buckeyes | -- |
| 8 | Arizona Wildcats | -- |
| 9 | TCU Horned Frogs | -- |
| 10 | Stanford Cardinal | -- |
| 11 | Iowa Hawkeyes | -- |
| 12 | Auburn Tigers | -- |
| 13 | Oklahoma St. Cowboys | -- |
| 14 | Miami Hurricanes | -- |
| 15 | Missouri Tigers | -- |
| 16 | Nebraska Cornhuskers | -- |
| 17 | Florida St. Seminoles | -- |
| 18 | Virginia Tech Hokies | -- |
| 19 | Michigan Wolverines | -- |
| 20 | UCLA Bruins | -- |
| 21 | Nevada Wolf Pack | -- |
| 22 | Oregon St. Beavers | -- |
| 23 | Kansas St. Wildcats | -- |
| 24 | Utah Utes | -- |
| 25 | South Carolina Gamecocks | -- |
SB Nation BlogPoll College Football Top 25 Rankings "
What you should know: I devised a spreadsheet to do 90% of the initial work for me. This is 100% based on that spreadsheet, which I would be happy to make available upon request. Trust me when I tell you that it makes Stat-King look downright scientific. It is b.s., but the same b.s. applies to everyone. I attempted to reward FBS wins (filter out FCS wins) but count both FBS and FCS losses. I fully expect there to be growing pains with the formulas at first, and I'm not fully sure if the data I used is completely prepared. Point out the inconsistencies. Your opinion matters.
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Oregon, Utah, Michigan State, and maybe South Carolina are too low
Utes have only beaten Pitt, but their other 3 wins have been blowouts, I think they belong ~15 or so. Oregon has been playing video game style football and I think they’ve shown much more than LSU. The ‘Cocks have looked pretty good this year behind Garcia’s reckless abandon at QB…though ’Bama will probably spank them this week. Michigan State needs to be on the list as well at 5-0, though their best win is a lackluster Wisconsin team.
Air Force only lost a close one to OK, and beat a tough Navy squad this week, I’d throw them at the bottom of the list and I like them more than K-State right now.
Too high: LSU, Florida, Arizona (one win against Iowa gets you a top ten ranking in the major polls? Damn.), Virginia Tech (too soon, but they’ll get back to the top 25 eventually), OK State (3 point wins against Troy and A&M aren’t top-13 impressive), and Miami (solely out of my own blind hatred for them).
http://www.anchorofgold.com - For all 27 Vanderbilt fans out there.
by Christian D'Andrea on Oct 4, 2010 10:57 AM EDT reply actions
The formula
A majority of the weighting I used went to the composite rankings found here.
You can see that Arizona is 6th according to an average of a majority of the 60+ polls.
I didn’t want to make it strictly based on that, so I added in a few other factors, which pushed Arizona down 2 spots.
LSU is ranked higher because they haven’t played any FCS teams yet, which I think should be rewarded. As is Florida.
Margin of victory doesn’t factor in to that formula at all.
As I said, I really didn’t spend much time crafting the formula. It’s going to need some work and I plan to use the draft ballots to “test” the formula before using the feedback to adjust our actual final submission.
I think LSU is way too high. They don’t even deserve to be in the top 10.
Florida is as well. They played well against Kentucky, but that’s about it. For winning by double digits, they didn’t look very good the first three weeks. And of course they got stomped by Alabama.
I’d have them both below Arkansas (did you forget about them?) who played a great game against Alabama.
Formulaic
The draft ballots from us are going to be based on a formula that I’m going to tweak over time. Hopefully it will get closer and closer to a “common sense” listing.
Until then though, thanks for helping point out the inconsistencies!
Resume ballot?
I hope so. IMO that’s the only sensible way to do this after about now.
For discussion, here’s mgoblog’s ballot. They generally know their stuff and are pretty dispassionate (e.g., they have Michigan one spot higher than you do, although perversely I think they’ve been overrating Ohio State all season).
Interesting that they have Auburn so much higher than you do.
Other than that, I got nothin’. So many people try to do this by the “eye test” and end up reverting to overrating their own conference because even Jesse W. Johnson can’t watch film of every game of every team. So just use resumes and be done with it.
For Next Week
I’m planning to have the week 1-6 schedules converted so I can actually pick out the rankings of the teams each team has beaten and the rankings of the teams to whom each team has lost. I’ll then use this to generate a better approximation of the SOS, which should help. We could start each week with a ranking of the best resumes and then go from there.
It’s rare that I think SEC teams are getting too much credit (as in my above comment), but I like the ordering of the top 5 you have listed in this comment.
First Revision - 2/5 - #6 - #10
06 TCU
07 Arizona
08 LSU
09 Arkansas
10 Stanford
Now it’s starting to get tricky. I think Arizona has to be up there, since Iowa is still being ranked in the top 10 despite the loss. So is Florida, but I penalized them for losing so emphatically.
Losses to top 5 opponents: Arkansas and Stanford, though Arkansas lost at home where Florida and Stanford both lost on the road. At least Arkansas was close.
Let’s settle 6-10. We can’t move forward without this group set.
Oklahoma and Oregon
Oklahoma is too high. Oregon is too low. Yes, Oklahoma was impressive against Florida St., however, they have yet to convincingly win a game other than that one. Texas’ blowout loss to UCLA makes OU’s win in the Red River Shootout look that much less impressive. Meanwhile, Oregon has absolutely killed everyone that have played – including two games in which they faced double-digit deficits. Also, Virginia Tech has no business in the Top 25. Maybe in a few weeks after they beat up on their crappy conference, but not now.
My stab at a Top 10 below:
My Top 10 would be as follows:
1. Alabama – No explanation necessary.
2. Ohio State – Solid win over a good Miami team, but not really tested so far.
3. Oregon – Absolutely dominant on offense. We’ll see what they do against Arizona. Pac 10 looks tough.
4. Oklahoma – Dominated Florida St., decent against Texas, but very shaky in their other games. I worry they will be the sacrificial lamb in the BCS Title Game.
5. Boise St. – Yes, Va. Tech will get back into the Top 25, but for now James Madison really screwed Boise St. They simply do not play a good enough schedule to warrant consideration over an undefeated SEC, Pac 10, Big 10, or Big 12 team.
6. TCU – Much like Boise St., they will have to win using style points. Looking forward to their game against Utah. Too bad Texas is afraid to schedule them.
7. Auburn – Swept the South Carolina schools. Very impressed with Gene Chizik, but the SEC West looks too tough for them to emerge unscathed.
8. Arizona – Win over Iowa is huge (ask Penn State how good Iowa is). Watch out for this team as a dark horse. They have the defense to beat Oregon, but might lack the offensive firepower to run the Pac 10 table.
9. Arkansas – Hard to justify putting a one-loss team over undefeated teams, but Florida’s loss to Bama justifies putting Arkansas here. Ryan Mallet is going to have nightmares about that fourth quarter for a long time. Lucky to have a bye week before a tough non-conference game against Texas A&M.
10. LSU – I’m putting them here by default, but I could not argue with bumping them after the near-debacle on Saturday. Les Miles will manage to turn a few wins into losses before the year is over.
First Revision - 5/5 - #21 - #25
21 Miami
22 Florida State
23 Kansas State
24 South Carolina
25 Air Force
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