Periscope: Vanderbilt vs. Auburn

by KingJamesIV on Jan 22, 2010 3:40 PM EST in Basketball Comment 4 comments

REMINDER: Please bring new or gently used shoes to the game to support the folks in Haiti. Vanderbilt has partnered with Soles4Souls, a Nashville-based company. Soles4Souls' goal is to deliver 1 million shoes to the earthquake victims. Your support is genuinely appreciated by Festus Ezeli and Steve Tchiengang.

Of the remaining matchups on the Commodore schedule, Auburn in Nashville currently presents itself as the second-most-winnable. First, it's at Memorial Gym, where the Commodores are undefeated on the season. Next, it's against Auburn, the team I recently ranked 11th in the latest SEC Basketball Power Poll. Ken Pomeroy gives Vandy a 94% likelihood of victory (88-69 with a tempo of 74). (The LSU game in Nashville over Valentine's Day Weekend currently rates as the most winnable game -- plan accordingly)

DeWayne Reed certainly qualifies as Auburn's biggest threat. He leads a 3 guard, 2 forward lineup that is perimeter heavy. As their 3-point shooting goes, so goes the team. Vanderbilt should have a tremendous advantage in the post, and Tiger fans should expect the Commodores to take advantage of that fact.

Tigers vs Commodores coverage

Schedule Breakdown

Considering that Vanderbilt has played a much more difficult schedule, the Commodores present a more formidable challenge to the Tigers relatively than vice versa. The Commodore offense will be the second most efficient of the ones Auburn has faced this season. Likewise, Vandy's defense will be the fourth toughest for Auburn. On the flip side, Auburn's offense will be the eleventh best and their defense will be the 14th best that the Commodores will have faced.

Statistical Breakdown

Auburn's key players look to be putting up some decent tempo-free numbers. Considering that four players average in double-figures, this isn't surprising, especially once you factor in the difference in strength of schedule. Despite this, Vanderbilt still holds the edge in personnel thanks to a very deep, talented bench.

Four Factors: Vandy holds an advantage in all four categories versus Auburn, despite the SOS disparity. Vandy's interior game should present itself again on the stat sheet in offensive rebound percentage and free throw rate.

Traditional Statistics - Auburn Tigers

			FG			3PT			FT			Rebounds			Misc
	G	M	M	A	Pct	M	A	Pct	M	A	Pct	Off	Def	Tot	Ast	TO	Stl	Blk	PF	PPG
DeWayne Reed	19	32.2	5.3	13.3	40.1	1.6	4.8	34.1	4.2	6.4	65.6	0.6	2.2	2.8	4.5	3.2	1.6	0.3	2.4	16.5
Frankie Sullivan	19	30.3	4.4	9.6	46.2	2.3	5.6	41.5	2.6	3.1	84.7	0.9	2.9	3.8	2.4	1.7	2.0	0.2	3.2	13.8
Lucas Hargrove	19	31.6	5.1	10.1	50.0	0.8	3.1	25.4	2.1	2.9	69.6	1.9	5.2	7.1	2.5	2.9	1.5	0.4	2.8	12.9
Tay Waller	13	27.2	4.0	8.7	46.0	2.5	6.6	38.4	1.2	1.5	75.0	0.8	2.1	2.9	1.0	1.3	1.0	0.1	2.2	11.7
Brendan Knox	19	20.4	3.4	4.9	69.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.0	3.5	56.7	2.0	2.1	4.1	0.3	1.5	0.4	0.7	2.5	8.8
Andre Malone	19	13.7	1.4	4.2	34.2	0.5	2.4	21.7	0.4	0.7	53.8	0.5	2.1	2.6	0.3	0.4	0.6	0.1	0.9	3.7
Earnest Ross	19	15.3	1.2	4.0	30.3	0.5	2.4	22.2	0.6	0.8	73.3	1.4	1.7	3.1	0.8	1.0	1.1	0.2	1.6	3.5
Kenny Gabriel	13	8.5	1.0	2.6	38.2	0.5	1.8	30.4	0.3	0.5	66.7	0.2	1.2	1.5	0.0	0.5	0.2	0.2	1.0	2.8
Johnnie Lett	19	14.0	1.0	2.4	42.2	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.3	0.9	33.3	1.3	1.9	3.2	0.5	0.6	0.3	0.2	2.1	2.3
Larry Williams Jr	7	4.6	0.7	1.6	45.5	0.6	1.4	40.0	0.1	0.7	20.0	0.0	0.4	0.4	0.0	0.3	0.3	0.0	0.7	2.1
Ty Armstrong	18	5.5	0.8	1.7	48.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.4	0.9	43.8	1.0	0.7	1.7	0.2	0.6	0.1	0.1	0.9	2.1
Rob Chubb	5	4.6	0.8	1.2	66.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.8	25.0	0.4	1.8	2.2	0.2	0.8	0.4	0.0	1.2	1.8
Josh Wallace	13	8.1	0.5	1.1	42.9	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.7	1.2	60.0	0.1	0.4	0.5	1.2	0.5	0.3	0.0	0.7	1.6
Jake Drum	4	3.3	0.5	0.8	66.7	0.3	0.5	50.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.5	0.3	0.8	0.3	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.8	1.3
Tony Neysmith	13	5.5	0.1	0.4	20.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.3	25.0	0.2	0.8	0.9	0.6	1.2	0.2	0.0	0.8	0.2

With a victory over the Tigers, Vanderbilt would move to 4-0 in the SEC, a feat which hasn't been accomplished by the Commodores since the era of Clyde Lee: 1965-66.

Game Previews (Will Be Updated As Released By Sources)

Vanderbilt And Auburn Meet Saturday - VANDERBILT OFFICIAL ATHLETIC SITE

VSL Gets You Ready: Vanderbilt Hosts Auburn | Vanderbilt Sports Line

Commodores look to extend winning streak against Tigers | InsideVandy

Preview: Vanderbilt hosts Auburn | VandyMania.com (Scout - Premium)

Previewing Auburn at Vanderbilt | VandySports.com (Rivals - Premium)

Reunion of sorts for Lebo, Rice when VU takes on Auburn | Nashville City Paper

Vanderbilt won't look beyond Auburn | The Tennessean

Track 'Em Tigers is our Auburn SB Nation affiliate. This post [video!] shouldn't be missed.

Tipoff is set for 1230 pm CT and the game will be televised on the SEC Network (ESPN Full Court & ESPN360 as well). Join us in the game thread, which will open about an hour before the tip. Don't forget to stop by Stat King to make your selection for the Auburn game. Also, make sure to vote in the three polls we put up this week (here, here, and one below).

Poll

Margin of Victory - Vanderbilt vs. Auburn

Vanderbilt by >20

4 votes

Vanderbilt by 10-20

11 votes

Vanderbilt by <10

4 votes

Auburn

1 votes

20 votes | Poll has closed

1 recs | Comment 4 comments | Share

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Comments

Auburn has the edge at one or two positions...

with no bench. They’d have to get huge, huge performances from these guys to win. If Auburn takes this game it’ll be time for some serious questions before the UT/UK games.

by Train Island on Jan 22, 2010 4:11 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

It should be competitive ...

I’d love to see the ‘Dores come out and step on their throats early, but Auburn can shoot the ball from outside … and as we know, Memorial is a shooters gym. So, I won’t be surprised if it’s close at halftime, but would like to think that Vandy will gradually wear them out down low. Just too many horses.

I look for an 82-70 win here.

by BrianSWard on Jan 22, 2010 6:15 PM EST reply actions 0 recs