Theorem and Corollary: 01.18.2010 - Vanderbilt and the Polls
by KingJamesIV on Jan 18, 2010 2:38 PM EST
in Vanderbilt Commodores Basketball
11 comments
Theorem
When Vanderbilt is ranked in the top 25 of the AP and ESPN/USAToday polls, they lose to quality (RPI Top 100) but inferior teams.
Examples of Proof
After beating Lipscomb and St. Mary's to open the season, Vanderbilt found itself included among the top 25 in both polls. The first game upon being ranked, Vandy loses to Cincinnati, an inferior team (according to current kenpom, sagarin, and rpi). Later in the season, upon being ranked, Vandy faced off against Illinois and Western Kentucky. Vandy loses to both teams, fulfilling the requirements of the theorem.
Analysis
Commodore fans should be very thankful that Vanderbilt ended up "just outside" the top 25 this week, as they face an Auburn team more than capable of pulling off the upset (provided they shoot lights out).
Corollary
When Vanderbilt is ranked in the top 25 of the AP and ESPN/USAToday polls, they beat quality but superior (kenpom, sagarin, rpi, ap, espn/usatoday) opponents.
Examples of Proof
None
Analysis
Hopefully should Vanderbilt be victorious against an overmatched Auburn team, the war of attrition that takes place in the polls will vault Vanderbilt into the rankings for the first time since December, just in time for a week of road trips to Knoxville and Lexington to take on two opponents that certainly qualify for examples as proof for the corollary.
Stay tuned.
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Modifications ...
I would suggest that, historically, the theorem & corollary should be modified with the following words, respectively … “away from home” and “at home”.
Unfortunately, that won’t help us next week, should we find ourselves ranked.
This is ridiculous.
I love it.
Must…not…overlook…Auburn. Truthfully, Auburn was right there with Kentucky. This is a classic trap game.
I think we split UK and UT. Leaning towards Knoxville. This is shaping into a special team.
"And with the 15th pick, the Tennessee Titans select..."
I Agree
Auburn is a classic trap. I imagine that after a full week that Vandy fans will be chomping at the bit to see this team. Especially the students. That should help.
At UT, At UK. Man that’s about as tough as it gets for one week of basketball. UT has certainly played very well despite the turmoil. Factoring in the entire season, they’re statistically the better team on a neutral court.
Kentucky continues to struggle at times, but continues to learn how to win close games. For a team to really have a shot against them at Rupp, they’re going to need to build a sizeable advantage and then step on their throats. Few teams are capable of that, but we’re one of them.
Pomeroy currently predicts that UK is actually the “more winnable” matchup. @UT 27% chance of win, @UK 28% chance.
One win at either would be huge!
If We're Ranked
it would mean that we beat Auburn. The team is going to be really excited to take on UT, considering they swept us last season. That’s why I think we’ve got a real shot to win in that game, despite our recent troubles with playing well once we’ve been ranked.
A win at Knoxville, and the confidence of this team will be through the roof. Which will be so important heading into that matchup with Kentucky.
Looking On The Horizon
It certainly seems that fate is setting up a matchup of #1 Kentucky @ Vanderbilt for February. We’ve got a nice little streak against #1 teams in Memorial…
Shades of 1993 #1 UK @ Top 15 Vandy? I’ve certainly been entertaining the idea…
93 Game
I was a ball boy for that game. I was nearly trampled in the subsequent floor storming. It was unreal.
Did you just comment
on your comment
on your comment?
Awesome.
"And with the 15th pick, the Tennessee Titans select..."
But I'm very jealous
of the McMahan high fives. Still my favorite Vandy team ever. Ever. The Mac Attack, baby! F*** Temple.
"And with the 15th pick, the Tennessee Titans select..."
Auburn game first
So hard not to think about next week. Auburn hasn’t just hung in there with UK. They played a good first half with UT in Knoxville as well. They also hung around with South Carolina. 0-3 in the conference but still a dangerous team (speaking of 0-3 and dangerous, how about Georgia? They could seriously sweep us based on how they are playing and barely losing to teams).
I still think we win it based on home court advantage. We should be able to do what UT did with depth in the second half at Memorial this Saturday. Can’t wait to get home to Nashville from this week of travelling in Bobby Bowden country to see the game.
Then I’ll start discussing hell week.
Good Idea
Auburn really, REALLY depends on their outside shooting. If they’re hot in Nashville on Saturday, Vandy might need a career night from outside from John Jenkins, Brad Tinsley, or Jermaine Beal.
Hopefully it won’t come down to that.
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